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Assad’s exit could push Russia into Haftar’s arms

The fall of the Syrian regime impacts Moscow’s operations in Libya and North Africa, with think tanks predicting new Russian bases disrupting European energy supplies

The collapse of Bashar al Assad’s dictatorship in Syria could have major implications for Russia, whose naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean Sea coast provided logistical support for the Kremlin’s operations in Libya and wider North Africa. Assad has fled to Russia which has lost a key regional ally.

Think tanks including the United States-based Institute for the Study of War expect Russia to move to establish new bases on the African continent as it seeks to build new geopolitical alliances.

Libya is the most likely choice, where Moscow has moved in recent months to develop its military facilities and weapons stockpiles at the Brak el Shati and Jufra air bases. The latter saw Russia’s mercenary group, Wagner, train forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar, who still control swathes of eastern Libya (AC Vol 63 No 2, Moscow guns for African gold).

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union has diversified its energy supply to Egypt and Algeria, and has agreed on green energy investments in Egypt, Mauritania and Tunisia.

A greater Russian presence in Libya could disrupt European energy supplies and expand its geopolitical influence in North Africa, while also undermining the chances of a peace and power-sharing agreement between the Haftar-backed Government of National Stability in Benghazi and the internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli.

GNU Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba has also signalled interest in joining the expanding BRICS group, which includes Russia.

American investigation group, The Sentry, confirms that Haftar’s forces need to request permission to access Russian bases on Libyan territory.

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