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Kenya

Team Ruto plots its succession

State House’s 20-strong advisory corps has become a parallel centre of power and is quietly assembling its own slate for next August’s polls

President William Samoei Ruto has assembled an advisory team of technocrats and loyalist bruisers, many of whom plan to use their State House roles in electoral politics next August. Unlike most of its predecessors, Ruto presidency has invested power and resources in a team of around 20 senior State House advisors. They are the operating core of a machine to manage a fragile broad-based government, steer economic policy and prepare for elections.

Ruto’s populist turn on foreign traders risks rattling investors

William Ruto, United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto, United Nations General Assembly, New York, September 2026. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

The crackdown on foreign small businesses, now folded into a sweeping localisation bill, tests the President’s  promise that Kenya remains open for capital

A fluent public speaker with a generous travel budget, President William Samoei Ruto, has been raising his profile again at the UN General Assembly this week, lobbying for...

HH’s poll overkill threatens legitimacy

ZAMBIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS, 2026. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ZAMBIA'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTION RESULTS, 2026. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The ruling party may have jeopardised the country’s democratic reputation but investors seem unperturbed

A consensus is emerging that President Hakainde Hichilema and his ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) panicked during the 13 August election count, fearing they would fall...

Electricity drive confronts financing gap

AFRICA'S ELECTRIFICATION DRIVE: THE RACE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA'S ELECTRIFICATION DRIVE: THE RACE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Mission 300’s reported progress is good news – but it favours bankable governments rather than those whose electricity deprivation is deepest

Africa’s largest electrification initiative has made an early advance, with the World Bank and African Development Bank reporting more than 50 million electricity connections in 40 countries. The...

The Tinubu dividend remains elusive

NIGERIA: GROWTH, TRADE BALANCE AND RESERVES STRENGTHEN. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA: GROWTH, TRADE BALANCE AND RESERVES STRENGTHEN. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Ending subsidies and floating the naira boosted public finances and market sentiment but the government’s repairs aren’t passing the household test

Recent polling shows rising anger among Nigerians about the economy and the cost of living, with many blaming President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s reform agenda for worsening their living...

Constitutional reforms stall on imperial presidency

Dominic Ayine. Pic: @JusticeSremSai
Dominic Ayine. Pic: @JusticeSremSai

The Mahama government accepts symbolic changes to the 1992 charter while rejecting curbs on presidential patronage

Ghana’s push to modernise its 1992 constitution has run into the same obstacle that has defeated two previous attempts: the governing class is reluctant to cede the discretionary...

Europe is betting €200 billion on Africa and economic security

Africa Green Hydrogen Summit 2026. Pic: @EUinSA
Africa Green Hydrogen Summit 2026. Pic: @EUinSA

Brussels launched Global Gateway as an ethical alternative to China’s lending – now its priorities are economic sustainability with a preference for European business

Two Global Gateway projects worth €57.8 million (US$66.5m) were unveiled at the Africa Green Hydrogen Summit in Cape Town on 15-16 September, backing South African green hydrogen and...

Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity

Security Council Meets on Situation in Libya. August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
Security Council Meets on Situation in Libya. August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them

The agreement aimed at ending Libya’s divisions struck in Tripoli on 30 August between officials of the internationally recognised government of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba and representatives...

Dangote’s refinery goes public, and so does his ambition

Aliko Dangote at the IPO signing ceremony, 7 September 2026. Pic: Dangote Industries FB
Aliko Dangote at the IPO signing ceremony, 7 September 2026. Pic: Dangote Industries FB

A record share sale is meant to crown Africa’s most audacious industrialist. It may also expose how much his empire depends on political favour

Aliko Dangote is aiming for Africa’s biggest ever initial public offering as he seeks to raise at least US$1.6 billion to expand his Lagos refinery to 1.4 million...

Mnangagwa’s money men buy him time

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Behind the President’s constitutional overhaul is a network of wealthy fixers whose fortunes, influence and impunity shape the political machinery

Passing the Constitutional Amendment Bill to extend his term (CAB3) has been exceptionally costly for President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa whose popular support has never matched that of his...

Fragmentation reshapes the centre

DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis in Louwville, Saldanha Bay Municipality, 10 September 2026. Pic: @Our_Da
DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis in Louwville, Saldanha Bay Municipality, 10 September 2026. Pic: @Our_Da

The municipal elections may end ANC hegemony without producing a new dominant party, leaving power to be contested among a wide field of rivals

The 4 November municipal elections may confirm the end of African National Congress dominance without producing a new hegemon (AC Vol 67 No 11). South Africa’s governing centre...

The scramble for capital

AFRICA: INCOMING INVESTMENT RISES, DEBT PRESSURES PERSIST. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: INCOMING INVESTMENT RISES, DEBT PRESSURES PERSIST. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Governments and companies look to Asia and domestic finance as trade and investment fall behind the continent’s population and market growth

The push by African economies to accelerate investment and growth is centred on the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) ambitious plan to mobilise under-utilised domestic resources and countries’ efforts...

Gulf State rivalries are locking the region into permanent conflict

UN Security Council meets on situation in Sudan and South Sudan, August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe
UN Security Council meets on situation in Sudan and South Sudan, August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

Both armies are starving civilians while shipping gold to Dubai and Cairo, as the World Food Programme warns it will run out of money within weeks

As UN officials were preparing to release their Independent Fact-Finding Mission’s report on 3 September with more damning reports of the United Arab Emirates arming of the Rapid...

Faye's IMF gamble hits a debt-treatment wall

Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye, Cheikh Diba and Bassirou Sarr with IMF delegation, 1 September 2026. Pic: @PR_Senegal
Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye, Cheikh Diba and Bassirou Sarr with IMF delegation, 1 September 2026. Pic: @PR_Senegal

Diba's refusal to call the deal a 'restructuring' is spooking creditors just as the divided parliament prepares to vote on the contested plan

African negotiators claim ground in global tax battle

Attendees at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. 10 August 2026, New York. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe
Attendees at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. 10 August 2026, New York. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

New York talks move to line-by-line drafting but leave the central contest over taxing rights and the OECD’s authority unresolved

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