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East Africa becomes proving ground for the west's rare earths campaign

William Ruto arrives at the G7 Summit in Evian Les Bains, France, 16 June 2026.
William Ruto arrives at the G7 Summit in Evian Les Bains, France, 16 June 2026. @Ministry of Foreign Affairs Kenya

President Ruto’s insistence on local processing is testing Washington’s ability to compete with China's 20-year head start

For Kenya’s President William Samoei Ruto, building the Mrima Hill rare earth mine is key to his ambition to turn Kenya into a ‘first world economy’ modelled on Singapore (AC Vol 67 No 9). On 7 July, he signed a Sovereign Wealth Fund bill into law and wants to channel revenue to it from the planned Dangote Industries oil refinery in Lamu, as well as Kenya’s nascent mining sector. Part of his plan is to finalise minerals-access deal with the United States that would give Washington access to billions of dollars in niobium and rare earths in exchange for establishing domestic processing facilities. That, some of his opponents claim, is why US companies, especially those linked to US President Donald Trump’s administration, are likely to be favoured in the US$62 billion Mrima Hill concession.

Africa has to fire up its energy transition

AFRICA'S ENERGY TRANSITION: RENEWABLES EDGING FORWARD.
AFRICA'S ENERGY TRANSITION: RENEWABLES EDGING FORWARD. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Investment trends suggest that, despite the hype, there is little sign of a transformation under which governments could meet energy needs and climate goals

Mission 300, a grand initiative launched by the World Bank and African Development Bank to connect 300 million people in Africa to electricity by 2030 has now reached...

Mangudya’s airborne makeover restores London flights

Air Zimbabwe departs Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport bound for London Gatwick, 22 July 2026. @Airports_Zim
Air Zimbabwe departs Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport bound for London Gatwick, 22 July 2026. @Airports_Zim

The Mutapa Fund wants a win after its shuffle of state assets. A revived airline route to Britain flight provides one – but at a price, and with a partner carrying its own baggage

On 22 July, the first Air Zimbabwe flight to London in over a decade left Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport, carrying a cabin full of ministers to Gatwick...

Moving goalposts

Pic: @HHichilema
Pic: @HHichilema

New electoral rules and an uptick in the economy should have given Hichilema a clear run at re-election, but Lungu’s ghost lingers in a new challenger

As Zambia goes to the polls on 13 August, President Hakainde Hichilema, first elected in 2021, is seeking re-election in a contest shaped as much by disputes over...

Opposition mounts to term extension

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa

President Mnangagwa’s allies and securocrats warn they will arrest dissident officers ahead of the 31 July protests against the constitutional overhaul

On paper, President Emmerson Mnangagwa has secured his extra two years in office, having signed Constitutional Amendment Bill Number 3 into law on 7 July. As well as...

A rift in the First Family

Odrek Rwabwogo. Pic: @OdrekRwabwogo
Odrek Rwabwogo. Pic: @OdrekRwabwogo

Gen Muhoozi’s latest aggressive crackdown on his political opponents has prompted criticism from his brother-in-law

General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the son of Uganda’s 82-year-old President Yoweri Museveni and head of the Ugandan military, has spent the past two months asserting his grip on the...

Abiy’s constitutional gamble

Abiy Ahmed Ali at the opening ceremony the National Dialogue, 15 July 2026. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Abiy Ahmed Ali at the opening ceremony the National Dialogue, 15 July 2026. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wants to use the National Dialogue to begin unpicking Ethiopia’s ethnic federation

The National Dialogue plenary session that opened on 15 July in Addis Ababa was promoted by state media with unusual intensity. This reflected less enthusiasm for the consultative...

Nandi-Ndaitwah leans on Beijing

NAMIBIA: GROWTH STAGNANT AS DIAMOND SECTOR STRUGGLES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NAMIBIA: GROWTH STAGNANT AS DIAMOND SECTOR STRUGGLES. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

New agreements with China come as weak growth, rising debt and stalled job targets sharpen pressure on the administration

Back in Windhoek from her 5-11 July trip to China, President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah hailed a package of eight cooperation and investment deals with Beijing including an extremely detailed...

Islamic State exploits Puntland leader’s political errors

NORTHERN SOMALIA: ISIS/DA'ISH REVIVAL THREATENS DENI IN PUNTLAND. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NORTHERN SOMALIA: ISIS/DA'ISH REVIVAL THREATENS DENI IN PUNTLAND. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The jihadists ramped up their war from the Al Miskaad mountains as Puntland President Deni refocused his forces on Al Shabaab

Jihadist fighters loyal to the Islamic State (IS or Da’ish) have the wind in their sails thanks to political errors and misgovernance in semi-autonomous Puntland and Mogadishu –...

Biya’s Geneva stay sharpens succession risk

20 May National Day celebrations. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA
20 May National Day celebrations. Pic: @PR_Paul_BIYA

The president’s absence has held-up decisions in Yaoundé, triggering concerns over the un-named vice-president and a political rupture

President Paul Biya has been stuck in Geneva, Switzerland, for a month – alternating between a private clinic and his favoured suite at the InterContinental Hotel. This follows...

Protests reveal a deeper crisis

Malawian migrant returns from South Africa. Pic: @MalawiGovt
Malawian migrant returns from South Africa. Pic: @MalawiGovt

Marches against immigration show how trust in the ANC’s ability to govern has eroded, five years after the deadly 2021 riots

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