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The ANC is running out of successors it can trust

SOUTH AFRICA'S METRO MUNICIPALITIES: How the parties stand. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
SOUTH AFRICA'S METRO MUNICIPALITIES: How the parties stand. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The party is discovering that its patronage culture is disqualifying most of those best placed to lead it as Ramaphosa struggles to shape the unfolding contest

Cyril Ramaphosa has spent much of his presidency surviving political crises without ever fully restoring his authority. The Phala Phala scandal did not remove him from office, as some inside the African National Congress (ANC) hoped it might, but it permanently damaged the image on which his leadership depended: that of a reformist president somehow insulated from the ANC’s culture of secrecy, patronage and elite entitlement.


Tinubu’s machine storms the primaries

NIGERIA'S 2027 PRIMARIES: The battlegrounds that could upset Tinubu's blueprint. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
NIGERIA'S 2027 PRIMARIES: The battlegrounds that could upset Tinubu's blueprint. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The President holds all the cards – money, incumbency and a weakened opposition – but volatile states could complicate voting next January

With nearly 10.9 million votes at the All Progressives Congress (APC) primary, President Bola Tinubu is confident of a resounding victory at the January 2027 polls. He will...


Mnangagwa land payoffs abroad trigger anger at home

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: zanupf.org.zw
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: zanupf.org.zw

Compensation for farmers has become central to Harare’s push for debt relief and renewed multilateral financing

When Agriculture Minister Anxious Masuka told parliament on 6 May that the state would return 67 farms seized under the Fast-Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) and pay out...


Africa is still getting a raw deal

AFRICA: MUCH GREATER CRITICAL MINERALS INVESTMENTS NEEDED. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: MUCH GREATER CRITICAL MINERALS INVESTMENTS NEEDED. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

International rivalries are proving more of a drag than a catalyst to boosting metals and minerals processing on the continent

In the modern industrial sector, Africa has barely moved beyond its traditional role in the global economic system as an exporter of raw commodities rather than purveyor of...


Africa’s minerals drive a global scramble

Kansanshi Copper-Gold Mine, Zambia. Pic: Aerial View / stock.adobe.com
Kansanshi Copper-Gold Mine, Zambia. Pic: Aerial View / stock.adobe.com

Rival powers are accelerating stockpiling, price floor schemes and bilateral deals as they compete for the continent’s strategic resources

For the world’s most powerful states, the centrality of securing critical minerals – particularly for military and clean energy technology – has been underscored since the United States-Israeli...


Ruto squeezes the budget before the vote

William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Fuel price hikes and a tougher tax regime are testing how far the government can push voters before anger spills back onto the streets

President William Ruto has told allies he expects to win the 2027 general election ‘with a two to three million vote margin,’ confident that his record of international...


Faye fires Sonko as the debt trap tightens

Sacked PM Sonko elected parliamentary Speaker, 26/5/26
Sacked PM Sonko elected parliamentary Speaker, 26/5/26

The late-night dismissal of the charismatic prime minister has broken one of West Africa’s most celebrated political partnerships

A brief televised decree late on 22 May ended Ousmane Sonko’s premiership and dissolved the government – breaking the pact that had carried Bassirou Diomaye Faye to the...


Washington hits Salva Kiir’s revenue machine

Salva Kiir Mayardit. Pic: op.gov.ss
Salva Kiir Mayardit. Pic: op.gov.ss

State Department accuses tax collection company Crawford Capital and its political allies of siphoning state funds

Washington’s labelling of Crawford Capital, which manages most of South Sudan’s non-oil revenues, as a ‘corrupt entity’ lands close to President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s office and his family....


Amina Mohammed mulls a run for the Secretary General post

Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed addresses the Security Council meeting on Conflict-related food insecurity, November 2025. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías
Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed addresses the Security Council meeting on Conflict-related food insecurity, November 2025. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

With a regional push, Guterres’s deputy looks set to relaunch a bid for the top UN job

The growing demand for a woman to head the UN next year and backing from Africa’s 54 member states could boost the chances for a last-minute run for...


Farmers accuse Ouattara of breaking price pledge

Pic: conseilcafecacao.ci
Pic: conseilcafecacao.ci

Cocoa is stacking up but the farmers are owed billions – as a new report says about half the crop won’t meet the EU deforestation deadline

On 15 May Yves Brahima Koné, director of the Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC), raised estimates for Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa production to 2.2 million metric tons for 2025-26, almost...


From Colombia to Khartoum

Pic hrw.org: Spanish-speaking private military contractors and RSF fighters gathering in a courtyard between houses in El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan. © 2025 Private
Pic hrw.org: Spanish-speaking private military contractors and RSF fighters gathering in a courtyard between houses in El Fasher, North Darfur, Sudan. © 2025 Private

Colombian private military contractors transited through United Arab Emirates military bases before being deployed to Sudan to support the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Human Rights Watch (HRW) said...


Much more than optics

Ghana's Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa introduces Resolution  declaring the Trafficking of Enslaved Africans and the Racialised Chattel Enslavement of Africans as the Gravest Crime Against Humanity, 25 March 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías
Ghana's Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa introduces Resolution declaring the Trafficking of Enslaved Africans and the Racialised Chattel Enslavement of Africans as the Gravest Crime Against Humanity, 25 March 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

A conference in Accra on 17-19 June by Ghana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs plans to map out the next steps in the pan-Africanist push for reparations for the...


Ruto strengthens hand as Nairobi summit marks Macron’s African swansong

Africa Forward. Pic: @ForeignOfficeKE
Africa Forward. Pic: @ForeignOfficeKE

Part investment forum and part military realignment, summit co-hosts France and Kenya brought in 30 African leaders and some 1,500-2,000 business leaders

There was enough mutual self-interest, measured in €23 billion (US$27bn) of commercial deals and diplomatic positioning ahead of the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains in June, to make the...


Pathogenically, not yours

The United States signs an MOU with Nigeria to advance the America First Global Health Strategy, December 2025. Pic: @USinNigeria
The United States signs an MOU with Nigeria to advance the America First Global Health Strategy, December 2025. Pic: @USinNigeria

Ghana joins the pushback against America First health data agreements as Africa’s negotiators try to steer policy back towards pandemic equity

Two international pandemic initiatives are in trouble due to disputes over access to vaccines and medicines in Africa. One, led by the World Health Organization (WHO), is trying...


Damang is only the beginning

GHANA'S LEADING GOLD MINES: How resource nationalism
GHANA'S LEADING GOLD MINES: How resource nationalism could change the map. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

The transfer of a gold mine to the President’s brother is a blip on the radar as the country sprints towards resource nationalism

The takeover of the Damang mine by Engineers & Planners (E&P) from South African-registered Gold Fields last month underscores the government’s resource nationalism drive but raises tricky legal...


Beijing’s zero-tariff offer won’t close Africa’s $102bn trade gap

Shipping containers. Pic: tiero / stock.adobe.com
Shipping containers. Pic: tiero / stock.adobe.com

China’s latest concession doesn’t shake a system in which Africa exports raw materials while overseas firms capture most of the value-added

As an act of economic diplomacy, Beijing’s offer of tariff- and quota-free trade to 53 African countries, coming into effect on 1 May, was expertly timed. In late...


Chemical imbalance

Pic: kroko021 / stock.adobe.com
Pic: kroko021 / stock.adobe.com

European firms are selling pesticides banned in the EU to African countries, nearly six years after Brussels promised a blanket ban


After the battlefield charge, rebels press for a political opening

MALI AFTER THE 25 APRIL ATTACKS: National cohesion under pressure from three insurgent forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
MALI AFTER THE 25 APRIL ATTACKS: National cohesion under pressure from three insurgent forces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Tuareg separatists say they will honour self-determination in Azawad, but the military balance will be key to northern Mali’s future


Ouattara rewrites the rules

Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert. Pic: conseil-constitutionnel.ci
Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert. Pic: conseil-constitutionnel.ci

As the presidency dissolves the electoral commission, the main opposition parties are mired in internecine strife