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Libya

Under pressure, rivals agree an elite pact for unity

Security Council Meets on Situation in Libya. August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
Security Council Meets on Situation in Libya. August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Dubaiba and Haftar's lieutenants have signed a deal for reunification and elections, but the High State Council won't back them

The agreement aimed at ending Libya’s divisions struck in Tripoli on 30 August between officials of the internationally recognised government of Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dubaiba and representatives of Benghazi-based warlord Khalifa Haftar started life as an elite pact. It has at least half a chance of success.


Dangote’s refinery goes public, and so does his ambition

Aliko Dangote at the IPO signing ceremony, 7 September 2026. Pic: Dangote Industries FB
Aliko Dangote at the IPO signing ceremony, 7 September 2026. Pic: Dangote Industries FB

A record share sale is meant to crown Africa’s most audacious industrialist. It may also expose how much his empire depends on political favour

Aliko Dangote is aiming for Africa’s biggest ever initial public offering as he seeks to raise at least US$1.6 billion to expand his Lagos refinery to 1.4 million...


Mnangagwa’s money men buy him time

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Behind the President’s constitutional overhaul is a network of wealthy fixers whose fortunes, influence and impunity shape the political machinery

Passing the Constitutional Amendment Bill to extend his term (CAB3) has been exceptionally costly for President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa whose popular support has never matched that of his...


Fragmentation reshapes the centre

DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis in Louwville, Saldanha Bay Municipality, 10 September 2026. Pic: @Our_Da
DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis in Louwville, Saldanha Bay Municipality, 10 September 2026. Pic: @Our_Da

The municipal elections may end ANC hegemony without producing a new dominant party, leaving power to be contested among a wide field of rivals

The 4 November municipal elections may confirm the end of African National Congress dominance without producing a new hegemon (AC Vol 67 No 11). South Africa’s governing centre...


The scramble for capital

AFRICA: INCOMING INVESTMENT RISES, DEBT PRESSURES PERSIST. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
AFRICA: INCOMING INVESTMENT RISES, DEBT PRESSURES PERSIST. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

Governments and companies look to Asia and domestic finance as trade and investment fall behind the continent’s population and market growth

The push by African economies to accelerate investment and growth is centred on the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) ambitious plan to mobilise under-utilised domestic resources and countries’ efforts...


Gulf State rivalries are locking the region into permanent conflict

UN Security Council meets on situation in Sudan and South Sudan, August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe
UN Security Council meets on situation in Sudan and South Sudan, August 2026. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

Both armies are starving civilians while shipping gold to Dubai and Cairo, as the World Food Programme warns it will run out of money within weeks

As UN officials were preparing to release their Independent Fact-Finding Mission’s report on 3 September with more damning reports of the United Arab Emirates arming of the Rapid...


Faye's IMF gamble hits a debt-treatment wall

Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye, Cheikh Diba and Bassirou Sarr with IMF delegation, 1 September 2026. Pic: @PR_Senegal
Bassirou Diomaye Diakhar Faye, Cheikh Diba and Bassirou Sarr with IMF delegation, 1 September 2026. Pic: @PR_Senegal

Diba's refusal to call the deal a 'restructuring' is spooking creditors just as the divided parliament prepares to vote on the contested plan

Questions over how President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s government intends to bring its foreign debt-service burden down to an affordable level still hang over the IMF executive board’s decision...


Semlex on trial over Kinshasa passport contracts

Pic: semlexgroup FB
Pic: semlexgroup FB

Civil claimants say US$60 million was diverted from Congolese passport fees in case that tests Belgium’s enforcement of foreign-bribery laws

A Brussels court has ordered 14 people linked to Semlex’s passport contract with the government of Congo-Kinshasa to stand trial after a nine-year investigation into the company’s opaque...


African negotiators claim ground in global tax battle

Attendees at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. 10 August 2026, New York. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe
Attendees at the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on the United Nations Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation. 10 August 2026, New York. Pic: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

New York talks move to line-by-line drafting but leave the central contest over taxing rights and the OECD’s authority unresolved

African governments’ political campaign for a UN-led tax system has become a legalistic fight over definitions, statutory obligations and treaties after the latest round of talks in New...


The soldiers beyond Ramaphosa’s reach

Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa
Lieutenant-Colonel Frans Mathipa

Special Forces accused of murder expose a security system in disarray – and an Islamic State network running from Mogadishu to Midrand

The South African National Defence Force’s Special Forces command is facing its gravest public challenge since apartheid: not a battlefield reverse, but allegations that serving soldiers abducted an...


Abiy’s enemies find common cause

ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026
ETHIOPIA'S NORTHERN FRONT REOPENS: Addis Ababa's forces test Tigray. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2026

A loose anti-federal alliance is becoming a political and military problem for Addis Ababa and in the wider region

On 1 August, heavy fighting broke out at Shererina, a Tigrayan military stronghold on the Ethiopia-Sudan border – arguably the most serious confrontation between the Tigray Security Forces...


Rebuilding the ethnic machine

ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
ODM Central Management Committee and UDA Steering Committee meeting, State House Nairobi. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

A rebooted coalition might hold together but in Kenya’s political marketplace it is blocs, not ideas, that are the trading currency

The truism that Kenyan political parties are almost exclusively personal vehicles has been spelt out in technicolour by the fate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) less than...


Mohammed VI faces a turnout test

King Mohammed VI. maroc.ma
King Mohammed VI. maroc.ma

The Palace expects its parties to retain control after the 23 September vote, but it has to make a managed contest look politically meaningful

Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit has been working hard for King Mohammed VI (M6) this summer, reassuring voters that the general election on 23 September will feature candidates of...


Saïed buckles in summer of discontent

Tunisians clash with security forces in the southern city of Ben Guerdane after the sinking of a migrant boat.
Tunisians clash with security forces in the southern city of Ben Guerdane after the sinking of a migrant boat.

A 55°C heatwave, power cuts and jailed dissidents have prompted a newly coordinated opposition to take on the regime

For the second month running, Tunisians have taken to the streets against President Kaïs Saïed, in what the Forum Tunisien pour les Droits Economiques et Sociaux (FTDES) says...


Al Shabaab tests Hassan Sheikh’s resolve as troop drawdown nears

Forces from the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) seize a cache of chemical materials used to manufacture explosives. Lower Shabelle, June 2026. Pic: @HSNQ_NISA
Forces from the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) seize a cache of chemical materials used to manufacture explosives. Lower Shabelle, June 2026. Pic: @HSNQ_NISA

Intelligence raids killed a jihadi commander but the insurgents’ staying power complicates any peacekeeping exit