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Somaliland

Muse Bihi Abdi

Date of Birth: 2 January 1948
Place of Birth: Hargeisa, Somaliland


Displaying 1-10 out of 30 results.

Al Shabaab adaptability causes alarm

Supposedly the government allowed the attack to take place to improve its bargaining position in talks over what security force will take over from the African Transition Mission in Somalia when it leaves in December (ATMIS – AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...


Djibouti joins fight against the Abiy-Bihi pact

Nobody yet knows whether the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of the breakaway state of Somaliland is any more than a ‘memorandum of misunderstanding'...

We hear that Muse Bihi emboldened by his alliance with Addis Ababa is planning further violence in Somaliland to extend his hegemony and quell internal dissent...

Unable to bank on Addis's endorsement of Somaliland independence Muse Bihi and his supporters are concentrating on the military alliance with his powerful neighbour...

About 4 000 Somaliland troops are being trained in Ethiopia according to witnesses in the border town of Tug Wajale and there is widespread talk in Hargeisa that ‘order' will be restored in Awdal the western part of Somaliland on the border with Djibouti where dissent against Muse Bihi has grown over the last decade...

Somaliland troops have often trained in Ethiopia but the current high numbers raise concern that Muse Bihi may want a new offensive aimed at recovering ground lost to the new Sool Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) regional administration in the last year (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

Muse Bihi may calculated that a blitzkrieg in the east could restore confidence in him among members of the Isaq clan...

They see Muse Bihi's military presence in Awdal state growing as the former Somaliland president and Gadabursi elder Dahir Riyale Kahin has been unable to curb dissidents and rebuild a consensus in his clan in favour of the Somaliland nationhood project (AC Vol 43 No 10 Separate & sovereign)...

Following a failed meeting with Muse Bihi and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Somali Federal Government in December President Guelleh (who is Iise/Mamasan) and his wife Khadra Mahamud Haid (who is Sa'ad Muuse/Haber Awal) tried to reconcile the two men and prevent Djibouti being fought over (AC Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...

Guelleh and his influential spouse have recently done their best to convince the biggest Isaq traders who have Djibouti nationality to get Muse Bihi to renounce the MoU...

But they claimed to have no leverage with Muse Bihi so Guelleh changed tack and upped the stakes...

The presidential couple is anxious to prevent Muse Bihi's security apparatus brutally intervening in the Iise and Gadabursi town of Borama which is held up as a model of civilised Somali urban living by its champions and felt a tough stand would help...

The two five-person delegations were present but did not meet face-to-face while Turkish diplomats shuttled between them (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...


Shots and plots

Some analysts see a deeper game and the hand of Ethiopia and its current ally Somaliland in setting up an action designed to discredit Hassan Sheikh possibly as revenge for his opposition to the MoU between Addis and Hargeisa or simply to undermine him politically ahead of the next presidential elections (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...


Abiy Ahmed’s sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil

Regional concerns are mounting over the mooted quid pro quo between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi in which Ethiopia gets a port in the Gulf of Aden in return for recognising the independence of Somaliland which broke away from Somalia in 1991 (AC Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...

It's complicated by the UAE operating behind the scenes to strengthen the hand of Muse Bihi and assert their own strategic interests...

President Muse Bihi is pushing to take maximum advantage – his supporters keep claiming recognition by Addis is imminent – and taking a hard line against the opposition emboldened by the UAE...

Tangled pathThe tortuous road towards the current crisis over Somaliland started on 25 August when the Somaliland army – more precisely its contingents of Haber Awal and Haber Je'elo clan fighters – suffered a humiliating defeat when their military base near Las Anod was overrun by militias of the Dhulbahante clan (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

One result of that was that Muse Bihi was forced to accept an election plan that Haber Je'elo elders had proposed as part of a mediation effort between the two sides...

But the signing of the MoU with Ethiopia and the promise of recognition for Somaliland gave Muse Bihi new options...

Meanwhile Muse Bihi wanted to strengthen his hand by taking charge of the parliamentary elections which have relatively high credibility in the region...

Muse Bihi wants no donor funding for the poll because his opponents say it would come with monitoring and oversight that would interfere with Muse Bihi's rigging of the poll...

Backing this strong enables Muse Bihi to hang tough...

The bitterness and aggressiveness of Muse Bihi's rhetoric also serve to pressure Abiy to act against international advice and go through with the recognition of Somaliland...

Muse Bihi's supporters are continually announcing Addis's imminent recognition of Somaliland – originally intended for Somaliland's unofficial independence day of 26 June – and then pushing the date back...

According to our sources Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland deliberately spread a rumour on X and other social platforms that Ethiopia would formally recognise Somaliland on 1 July as a way of putting pressure on the negotiators at the Istanbul meeting the day before...


DISPATCHES

Turkey hosts first round of talks on port row

Turkey mediated the first round of talks between Somalia and Ethiopia's foreign ministers on Monday in the first international attempt to ease diplomatic tensions between the two Horn of Africa states (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

Last week Africa Confidential reported that Prime Minister Abiy and President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland had deliberately spread a rumour on X and other social platforms that Ethiopia planned to formally recognise Somaliland on 1 July in an attempt to put pressure on the negotiators...

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Puntland risks fracturing the federation

We hear that after annoying Hassan Sheikh by taking visits from President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland and Puntland's President Said Abdullahi Dani he will invite South West State's President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' to the Ethiopian capital...


Politicking hinders the war effort

Meanwhile significant elements in the Puntland army especially the Dervish (Darawish) flocked to help the Dhulbuhante in Las Anod defend themselves against Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi's forces in heavy fighting last year (AC Vol 64 No 8 Risks of Las Anod lull)...


Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding'

By announcing a trade-off on New Year's Day – putative recognition of Somaliland's 'independence' in exchange for access to the Gulf of Aden – Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Somaliland counterpart Muse Bihi Abdi have united the region against them ramping up tensions at a highly volatile time...

They were already coordinating with Muse Bihi on how to restart Somalia/Somaliland talks and were not ready to believe that the latter would risk such a gamble...

The first day was very tense as Muse Bihi wanted to only talk about recognition while Hassan Sheikh would talk about everything except recognition...

Eventually Ismaïl Omar Guelleh got Muse Bihi to appoint a technical team to discuss with another team in Mogadishu led by Abdikarim Hussein Guled...

Muse Bihi left Djibouti frustrated...

Neither Abiy nor Muse Bihi had a clear understanding of its implications...

Muse Bihi saw that announcing the deal with Addis Ababa would boost him politically (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

The main opposition party Waddani saw it as another ruse by Muse Bihi to extend his presidency further; it demanded that the text of the agreement be presented to Parliament for approval...

These quick-fire responses show Muse Bihi misjudged popular sentiment both on Somaliland's sovereignty and opposition to any Ethiopian presence...

After trying to maintain good relations with Muse Bihi Abdi and Abiy Ahmed it seems that Hassan Sheikh felt stabbed in the back...

He had refused to help the Daarood clan which stretches across the region and had been pushing him to endorse the Dhulbahante rebellion against Muse Bihi in Las Anod...


Floods put fighting on hold

Somaliland tensionAnother headache worsened in October when relations between the Federal Government and the Somaliland regional government soured after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud welcomed a delegation from Las Anod thus officially recognising the new Sool Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) administration after two weeks of talks (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

The essence of the stalemate over Las Anod has not changed and international pressure has not shifted the Somaliland president Muse Bihi Abdi with the prospect that things will get worse before they get better...


Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen

President Muse Bihi Abdi is adding political problems to the military reverses he has suffered in his ill-judged confrontation with the Dhulbahante clan over Las Anod...

Instead of staying out of the internal arguments of the Dhulbahante Muse Bihi launched a furious armed assault late last year following up with indiscriminate shelling and the repercussions are multiplying (AC Vol 64 No 4 Hargeisa's bloody own goal & Vol 64 No 6 Uneasy peace at Las Anod)...

Even worse from Muse Bihi's point of view they are now promoting the creation of a new Somali federal member state Khatumo-SSC (Sool Sanaag and Cayn)...

To add insult to injury the SSC militias defending Las Anod went over to the offensive on 25 August and overran Muse Bihi's military base at Gojade the launching point for his offensives seizing trucks artillery pieces and masses of ammunition in a major humiliation for Somaliland's leader...

Such extreme propaganda which is not supported by any evidence only has traction with the few Isaq including Muse Bihi who blame the Dhulbahante for supporting former dictator President Siad Barre's 1987-1989 scorched earth policy in Somaliland dubbed the 'Isaq genocide' when tens of thousands of civilians were murdered and Hargeisa and Burao all but razed to the ground...

Low key supportMuse Bihi's hardline stance has drawn in other parties...

But Muse Bihi's military problems have been feeding into his political woes...

This new timeline although endorsed by the Gurti the upper house of the Somaliland Parliament was a major bone of contention with the international community and Muse Bihi's opponents...

But events on the ground became too serious and Muse Bihi suddenly had to compromise as the military confrontation shifted from a fight with the Dhulbahante or Darod to struggle within the Isaq who are the backbone of the Somaliland independence idea (see Box Angry youth head for the hills)...

Consequently in late August Muse Bihi decided to reschedule the selection of the political parties to take place at the same time as the presidential elections in November 2024...

Angry youth head for the hills Although only a skirmish compared to the battle over Las Anod a revolt by young Habr Yunis fighters is occupying much more of the attention of Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi...

They blame not only the Habr Awal – the influential sub-clan of the Isaq to which Muse Bihi belongs – but also another Isaq sub-clan the Habr Je'lo with whom they have territorial disputes and increasingly political ones...

Muse Bihi sent a police unit to deal with the new band of rebels but it was ambushed with nine dead and 17 wounded...

What bothers Muse Bihi about all this is the crack in the façade of Isaq unity which has been the backbone of the Somaliland project for 30 years not the negligible military threat...

Muse Bihi's allies the Habr Ja'lo are clashing with Dhulbahante and Habr Yunis increasingly frequently...

In the wake of Muse Bihi's loss of the Gojade military base and this rebellion he needs Isaq to unite behind him...

He has embarked on a course of compromise to achieve this but the rebels in the hills say they won't consider altering their position until Muse Bihi is out of office...


Displaying 1-10 out of 30 results.