Regionally the offensive has warmed Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to Hassan Sheikh and the marriage of the former head of the Mogadishu police Sadeeq Joon to the daughter of President of Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti has done him no harm...

Tigray government President Debretsion Gebremichael last month emphasised the need for unity but the TPLF faces internal opposition from those favouring independence for Tigray and others prepared to cooperate with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in an interim administration (AC Vol 63 No 22 Addis Ababa and Tigray sign an uneasy truce)...

They are wary of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's mixed messages...

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is apparently worried by an influx of Al Shabaab fighters into Oromia and hopes to weaken them by creating a buffer zone between Somalia and Oromia controlled by local militias and Ethiopian federal troops...

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki put at least half a million soldiers – including fighters of the Amhara Special Forces militia (controlled by regional rather than federal authorities) – into the field...

How Issayas's strategy thrives in a divided Ethiopia Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki has different and wider aims than those of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed not least his long-held belief that Eritrea needs a weak or even divided Ethiopia as a neighbour (AC Vol 63 No 12 Abiy risks Amhara backlash)...

More fighting is unlikely to break this siege unless Tigray's leaders can put Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in an even weaker position than when they routed federal forces on their march towards Addis late last year...

Riyadh and Abu Dhabi helped Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in his military goals but do not have the staying power to support him through a long period of isolation which shows no sign of diminishing...

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the President of the Somali region Mustafa Mahamed 'Umar' Agjar immediately reacted not only by making the risible claim to have killed 800 militants but by declaring that Ethiopian forces would occupy parts of Somalia closest to the border...

However on landing in Djibouti Hassan Sheikh received the news that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had withdrawn his invitation to visit...

Moscow had planned to co-host its second Africa summit with Ethiopia in Addis Ababa but abandoned that plan after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched the war against Tigray...