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Published 20th June 2024

Vol 65 No 13

South Africa

The centre is holding – for now

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

President Ramaphosa’s Government of National Unity has months rather than years to regenerate jobs and hope

South Africa’s transition into coalition country politics – its most important shift since the liberation election of 1994 – happened so fast that most of the players were able to believe they had gained something from it before they could see a way to stop it. For a few months at least, that will be the glue that holds the new arrangements together. Beyond that, the claim that the country has embarked on a new national project will come under terminal strain – both from within and without the Government of National Unity.

Growth boost may speed up debt accord

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Accra has sent proposals to commercial creditors holding $13 billion of bonds after IMF confirms higher industrial outturn

A few more lights are flickering at the other end of Ghana’s US$44 billion debt tunnel. First, the country’s gross domestic product grew 4.7% in the first quarter of th...

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No plaudits for anti-corruption supremo

Pic: Martha Chizuma FB
Pic: Martha Chizuma FB

Most believe that the end of Martha Chizuma’s term of office effectively means the death of government prosecution of bribery

Many Malawians feel the book has now closed on the campaign by the Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) director Martha Chizuma to bring dozens of Malawian and foreign businesspeople and p...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

In 2024, one in four developing economies is expected to remain poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic in 2019, according to a report published on 19 June by the Mo Ibrahim foundation.

Many of the traditional means of finance are no longer viable. Both aid and the blended finance offered by donors via development finance institutions come with myriad conditionalities and too often reflect the policy priorities focus of the donors themselves.

Meanwhile, debt has become a...

In 2024, one in four developing economies is expected to remain poorer than it was on the eve of the pandemic in 2019, according to a report published on 19 June by the Mo Ibrahim foundation.

Many of the traditional means of finance are no longer viable. Both aid and the blended finance offered by donors via development finance institutions come with myriad conditionalities and too often reflect the policy priorities focus of the donors themselves.

Meanwhile, debt has become an impossible option, as Africa’s external debt has already tripled since 2009, and is available only at prohibitive interest rates. The AU reckons that mobilising the continent’s domestic resources can cover up to 90% of the financing required for its Agenda 2063. This means cutting illicit financial flows and strengthening tax systems, sovereign funds and pension funds. The Africa group at the UN General Assembly is drawing up the terms for a new UN tax convention.

Governments will have to monetise Africa’s critical minerals which the world needs for the green transition. Pascal Lamy, the former director general of the WTO, told Africa Confidential that governments should take advantage of financial instruments that reward countries for protecting biodiversity and markets which offer debt relief in exchange for environmental protection. ‘The money is there’, concludes the report. The question is how to access and redirect it.

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A fragile recovery

The region’s economies boast healthy growth rates but weak currencies, debt distress and unpopular taxes threaten

Finance ministers in East Africa’s leading economies – Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda – kept to the tradition of releasing their budget plans for 2024/25 on 13 June. ...

Battle for presidency splits the Kano emirate

Political alliances for the 2027 elections are fuelling the contest for the traditional leadership of Kano

Two emirs are laying claim to the throne of the Kano Emirate – a 220-year-old stool. On the surface it is just a battle of two cousins but behind the scenes it is a war betwe...

A landslide victory foretold, again

Two of the strongest opposition candidates have been barred from running, handing incumbent Paul Kagame another Soviet-style win

Few Rwandans are expecting surprises when they head to the polls on 15 July to vote in the country’s general election. The three candidates cleared to run for President &ndas...

Calls grow to regulate ballooning carbon credits

President William Ruto holds up carbon trading as his country’s next big export but climate activists want much tighter controls

By elevating carbon credits to the top of the climate finance agenda President William Ruto has made Kenya a key player on environment policy in Africa. He has won public backing f...

Patrice Talon tests strength of General Tiani’s junta

Vitriol flows both ways as hopes fade of a speedy end to the fight between Niamey and Cotonou

The arrest of five Nigérien oil technicians in Benin at the beginning of June has sparked accusations of ‘kidnapping’ and ‘hostage-taking’ from Gener...

Stalemate on climate finance talks irks African negotiators

After technical negotiations over green transition funds in Bonn hit a deadlock, talks are to resume at the UN General Assembly in September

Despite hopes of progress on climate finance for Africa at recent UN negotiations, an impasse emerged at the interim SB60 meeting held in Bonn, Germany from 3 to 13 June. Critical ...

The ANC stitches together a pro-market coalition

Cyril Ramaphosa will lead a Government of National Unity with the centre-right but excludes two populist parties with 25% of the vote

The Government of National Unity deal is a return to form for Cyril Ramaphosa who helped negotiate the first post-apartheid coalition government 30 years ago. The difference this t...

Will the Buganda kingdom tilt the vote against Museveni?

Opposition activists are urging the country’s most powerful monarchy to take a tougher stance against the ruling party

As concerns grow about the health of the country’s most powerful monarch, Kabaka (King) Ronald Muwenda Mutebi, 69, a dispute has opened up about the Buganda kingdom taking a ...

Pointers

Turkey’s power boost

The government has signed concessions to operate its airport and a large power plant with Turkey’s FB Group, prompting speculation about Ankara’s geopolitical ambitions...

Running the tax show in New York

Wealth taxes and new global efforts to combat illicit financial flows (IFF) and enforce taxation of cross-border services are the top priorities of a UN tax convention in New York....

Bonn talks deadlock on finance

Despite hopes of progress on climate finance for Africa at recent UN negotiations, an impasse emerged at the interim SB60 meeting held in Bonn from 3 to 13 June. Critical issues fo...

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