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Published 4th January 2024

Vol 65 No 1

South Africa

Tumbling support for ANC ends liberation era

Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: GovernmentZA CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED
Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: GovernmentZA CC BY-ND 2.0 DEED

With forecasts that it will win under 50% of the vote in this year's elections, the ruling party prepares for a sea-change

The African National Congress (ANC) will be gravely weakened in this year's national and provincial elections with its share of the vote likely to fall below 50%, but it will not be forced out of government. The fate of President Cyril Ramaphosa depends on how far the ANC vote falls; if below 45%, there will be a concerted push for a new leader.

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Austerity is no brake on Ruto's ambitions

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

The President's political dominance after his first full year in office is near total

The speed at which William Ruto shoe-horned his allies into key positions in the political and economic system after his election as president less than 18 months ago still shocks ...

Tinubu risks overplaying his hand

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

Career-politician President Tinubu's espousal of business-friendly economics could cost him support this year

As the President's lengthy convoy snaked its way through the bustling streets of Isale-Eko (Lagos Island), where he was to attend the last Friday prayers of the year at a mosque, t...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

Efforts by regional leaders to convene talks between Sudan's warring generals at the beginning of the year follow several failed international plans to end the brutal eight-month conflict. This is less a rebirth of multilateral African peacemaking than an acceptance that the Israel-Gaza and Russia-Ukraine wars will dominate the arena this year. And the Sudan talks have not been accompanied by similar initiatives to end the devastating conflicts in the Sahel or in eastern Congo-Kinshasa.

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Efforts by regional leaders to convene talks between Sudan's warring generals at the beginning of the year follow several failed international plans to end the brutal eight-month conflict. This is less a rebirth of multilateral African peacemaking than an acceptance that the Israel-Gaza and Russia-Ukraine wars will dominate the arena this year. And the Sudan talks have not been accompanied by similar initiatives to end the devastating conflicts in the Sahel or in eastern Congo-Kinshasa.

With the United States and European Union both facing elections this year, their Africa policies will take a back seat, with few initiatives or summits on the agenda. They may recalibrate their approach to an African initiative for the UN to launch an inter-governmental tax authority.

For Brussels, migration is a key concern of Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission and will dominate the European Parliament elections. The Commission wants to conclude a 'cash for migrant control' deal with Egypt in early 2024.

Fighting for a second term, US President Joe Biden is unlikely to make any sorties to Africa. After he approved the renewal of the US Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which offers tariff- and quota-free exports for most African countries, Congress can choose between extending the existing act or expanding it to offer more beneficial terms.

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Harsh economics and geopolitics loom

Another year of a weak currency and austerity, backed by the IMF, lies ahead as the crisis in Gaza poses deep challenges to Sisi and his circle

The inflationary surge that followed successive devaluations of the currency in 2022 will take time to ease, as further depreciation of the Egyptian pound is likely in 2024, while ...

Frelimo set to steal polls again

The massive fraud in the local elections looks like a dress rehearsal for Frelimo fixing the result of the presidential contest in October

All eyes are on the October general election, which will produce no surprises. Having practised the fraud in the municipal polls of October 2023, the ruling Frente de Liberta&ccedi...

Jacob Zuma's revenge

Former President's vow not to vote for the ANC will damage the party in KwaZulu-Natal and may encourage other high-profile dissenters

President Cyril Ramaphosa's pre-election headaches intensified with the news that Jacob Zuma, the convicted former President, is promising to vote for a new political party named a...

No case for the prosecutor

Widespread outcry and claims of political bias have followed the decision not to press graft charges against a former minister

The decision by Special Prosecutor Kissi Agyebeng not to prosecute former deputy Finance Minister, Charles Adu Boahen, has been widely criticised by lawyers and civil society as de...

Reality catches up with gambler Abiy

Prime minister Abiy's diplomatic ploy may distract attention from a weakening central state and economy

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's announcement on New Year's Day that his country would be granted access to the Red Sea by the breakaway republic of Somaliland illustrates his penchant ...

Public's patience is running short

Election promises remain unfulfilled, and unresolved big issues like debt and mining policy raise questions about ruling party competence

Despite surging into government on a wave of popular relief at the departure of President Edgar Lungu's haphazard, venal government in August 2021, Zambians still await, with dwind...

Tebboune prepares to see off challengers

Strategic competition with Rabat over ties with Israel and the disputed Western Sahara keeps the region on edge

In the opaque world of Maghreb politics, mooted changes in the senior leaderships of Algeria and Morocco can send shockwaves across the region. But there is no sign that the econom...

What did the UN COP28 Climate summit deliver for Africa?

The final communiqué at the end of the UN COP28 summit in Dubai on 13 December produced what its authors hailed as a breakthrough – it approved a roadmap for 'transitioning away from fossil fuels' | By Tim Concannon

It was a first for a UN Climate Conference. But it stopped short of what many delegates had called for – 'a phase-out' of the use of coal, gas and oil. Following the transition roa...

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The end is nigh – sort of

The governing elite is splitting as Biya's 91st birthday approaches, while the Anglophone insurgency grinds on and elections loom

Cameroonians do not look forward to what 2024 has to offer as all the drivers of conflict, corruption, and divisiveness in government look set to intensify amid expectations of imm...

Sonko's long walk to the ballot box

The leading oppositionist could still be barred from running in next month's presidential elections

The suspense continues. On 5 January, the Constitutional Court will rule on statements from 13 parliamentarians in support of the presidential candidacy of Ousmane Sonko, leader of...

The ANC hones its strategy for election survival

Our correspondent has been given a sneak preview of the ruling party's campaign strategy. It is brutally populist and divisive but it might just work

Undeterred by the confident assessments in multiple opinion surveys that its share of the national vote will fall below 50% in next year's elections for the first time, the ruling ...

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