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Published 14th December 2023

Vol 64 No 25


South Africa

Growing dissent pressures ANC from all angles

Mavuso Msimang. Pic: wwf.org.za
Mavuso Msimang. Pic: wwf.org.za

Opposition realignments and ruling party exits open up the field for next year's election

The resignation of Mavuso Msimang, deputy president of the African National Congress Veterans' League (ANCVL) and a respected lifelong activist, has widened cracks in the ruling party. It also points to a deepening generational divide within the ruling party's affiliates. ANC Youth League members have been lambasting the elders' 'conservatism' and its President Collen Malatji is demanding its members get a quota of 50% on the party's list of parliamentary candidates.


Auditor in the dock

The outspoken chief budget auditor has been arrested in politically convenient circumstances

The arrest of Margaret Nyakang'o, the widely respected head of Kenya's budget watchdog, on what appear to be trumped up fraud charges, has prompted concerns about the scale of graf...


Preparing for an all-out fight in El Fasher

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Warring generals Burhan and Hemeti are going into a battle that could end in a Libya-style national schism

After the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took over the cities of Nyala, Zalingei, El Geneina, and El Daein over a month ago, they set the stage for a battle for El Fasher, the capital ...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai is being heralded as a triumph by western nations and its Emirati hosts. That is largely because of the presence in the final communiqué of a commitment, albeit heavily qualified, to shift 'away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner'. It also allowed a compromise with international oil companies which have been promoting natural gas, less carbon-intensive than oil, as a transition fuel. Yet its envisaged pace of...

The UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai is being heralded as a triumph by western nations and its Emirati hosts. That is largely because of the presence in the final communiqué of a commitment, albeit heavily qualified, to shift 'away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner'. It also allowed a compromise with international oil companies which have been promoting natural gas, less carbon-intensive than oil, as a transition fuel. Yet its envisaged pace of progress is far too slow for many African states hit hardest by climate change.

UN officials told Africa Confidential that progress towards a global carbon price and then tax – both are vital to raising finance for the transition and paying for loss and damage – needs to be turbo-charged. That lobby is getting louder, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva insisting that ending the nearly US$7 trillion-a-year fossil fuels subsidies was essential.

African political leaders and civil society played a weightier role in these negotiations. They organised the launch of the Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative to discourage fossil fuels in oil-heavy African countries. But this will need massive investment. The funding pledges, some $700 million, to the Loss and Damage Fund dominated the start of the COP, but it is a derisory amount compared with the cost of the climate damage that needs to be repaired. 

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No end to the legal opposition's long vigil

The funeral of opposition leader John Fru Ndi in July symbolised the end of constitutionalist Anglophone ambitions for justice

Political opposition to the presidency of Paul Biya has been marginalised not only by armed action by separatists, but by the regime's increasing intolerance and emasculation of co...


'Corruption defence' in loans trial

Maputo's lawyers argue that those involved in the maritime schemes should have known how corrupt the country was before they funded them

The London trial over Mozambique's US$2 billion 'hidden loans' nears its end this week as lawyers present their closing arguments. Mozambique sued Credit Suisse bank, along with ma...


Former ANC business brain may take over Moonshot Pact

A new contender has entered the crowded opposition field with a plan to take on the ruling party in next year's elections

Outgoing chairman of FirstRand Bank, Roger Jardine, has surfaced as the latest contender to lead an alliance of opposition parties against the ruling African National Congress (ANC...


Opposition left outmanoeuvred

After fighting formidable presidential campaigns, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar have failed to follow up

Whether it is the 1,400-strong Nigerian delegation to the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai, or the supplementary budget that allocated US$35 million to items such as a presidential...


China holds key to regional oil project

The fate of Albertine oil and the pipeline to export it rests on Beijing's willingness to finance the plan which flouts World Bank climate rules

The massive oil project, which includes the East African Crude Oil Pipeline – heated over its 1,443-kilometre journey to the Tanzanian coast at Tanga – continues to sti...


Parliament in chaos over anti-Israel law

The President's inconsistency has dashed his hopes of bolstering his popularity by backing the Palestinian cause

Tunisians of all political stripes have united in their thousands in protest at Israel's retaliatory war against Hamas in Gaza. Demonstrations have continued over much of the last ...


Questions on electioneering budget

The government's attempts to 'postpone austerity' could backfire as debt restructuring hits new obstacles

President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo's success in securing the return of enough MPs from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to push through the 2024 budget by 138 to 136 votes o...



Pointers

Gold to Moscow

Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali are the most lucrative African states for Russia's Wagner Group, according to the 'Blood Gold' report published this week by a consortium o...


The case for reparations

The debate over reparations for colonialism and slavery has arrived in the European Parliament. Pierrette Herzberger-Fofana, a Malian-born German MEP for Alliance90/The Greens, is ...


Cash for no influence

A year after a handful of MEPs and European Parliament officials were arrested and €1.5 million in cash seized by police, the Qatargate 'cash-for-influence' scandal has also e...


Chaos reigns again

Domingo Simões Perreira, leader of the Assembleia Nacional Popular (ANP), Guinea Bissau's parliament, called all deputies to the parliament building on 13 December for the c...