A succession of political, economic and international structural changes will shake the continent amid a global downturn
With a third of the world, including many African economies, forecast by the IMF to go into recession, unsustainable debts with all their socio-political consequences will take centre stage this year. A deadly combination of rocketing western interest rates, hangovers from pandemic economics, the spillover from Moscow's war in Ukraine, spiralling food and fuel prices, and vulnerabilities to climate shocks are forcing reforms on the international system. Raising serious sums to finance energy transitions in Africa will move up the agenda.
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A weakened President and the deepening electricity crisis will slow reform and increase the prospects of coalition government in 2024
The coming year is likely to see further loosening of President Cyril Ramaphosa's grip on his divided ruling party and reduce his ability to progress economic reforms.
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Cash-fuelled presidential campaigning dominates politics as economy falters and security frays
Presidential and national assembly elections on 25 February presage sweeping changes. Among 11 million new voters, most of them aged between 18 and 34, many are frustrated with wha...