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Published 27th May 2021

Vol 62 No 11

Mozambique

Nyusi angers the region

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

Maputo's resistance to a Southern African force to quell the insurgents is poisoning relations with its former allies

Two months after Islamist militants mounted their spectacular invasion of the town of Palma in Cabo Delgado province, President Filipe Nyusi still does not know where to turn. The longer he waits, however, the more time the militants will have to prepare more strikes, counter-insurgency experts say.

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Repression, guns and new laws

Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: Philimon Bulawayo / Reuters / Alamy
Emmerson Mnangagwa. Pic: Philimon Bulawayo / Reuters / Alamy

As economic chaos and corruption reign, President Mnangagwa crafts a wave of new laws to pre-empt dissent

After bludgeoning his opponents for the past three years, President Emmerson Mnangagwa is stepping up laws against all dissent and erasing the last vestiges of judicial independenc...

Fightback lands in the courts

Ace Magashule and Jacob Zuma. Pic: GovernmentZA (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Ace Magashule and Jacob Zuma. Pic: GovernmentZA (CC BY-ND 2.0)

President Ramaphosa will see off the legal challenges from Ace Magashule's camp but it will be messy and expensive

Political support for the fightback against President Cyril Ramaphosa and his allies in the African National Congress is eroding day by day. The last act of the drama is being play...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

Morocco's decision to open its usually tight border controls in mid-May, allowing thousands of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, showed two important things: how African states can weaponise migration in their dealings with Europe and the double-edged sword of Rabat's policy on Western Sahara.

Rabat was retaliating, in part, against Spain's admission of Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front, to hospital for treatment of Covid–19. Madrid insists it was doing s...

Morocco's decision to open its usually tight border controls in mid-May, allowing thousands of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, showed two important things: how African states can weaponise migration in their dealings with Europe and the double-edged sword of Rabat's policy on Western Sahara.

Rabat was retaliating, in part, against Spain's admission of Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front, to hospital for treatment of Covid–19. Madrid insists it was doing so on humanitarian grounds, not to signal political support. Spain has been a strong ally of Rabat within the EU. There are no signs that Madrid is reconsidering those ties for now. But its panicked reaction, sending in 3,000 troops from its garrison in Ceuta, told its own story.

It seems that former United States President Donald Trump's recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara has emboldened King Mohammed VI. Yet Rabat's tactics could still backfire.

There are many in Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialist Party who take a much more critical view of Morocco's Western Sahara policy. Spain is also a major importer of gas from Algeria, the leading backer of Polisario. Spanish critics of Rabat are not alone in the EU. Germany's Green Party is openly hostile to Rabat on Western Sahara and could play a leading role in government after the next elections.

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Cracks in the ruling party

The government flounders as condemnation of rights abuses grows along with the popularity of oppositionist Bobi Wine

President Yoweri Museveni may be closing on a fourth decade in power but all is far from well in his restive ruling party as members wait for him to announce his next cabinet, foll...

The prosecutor isn't so special

The new nominee to head anti-corruption investigations faces a grilling in parliament and an explosive case over a gold company

John Githongo, a former permanent secretary for governance and ethics in Kenya, used to say 'anti-corruption politics is good politics'. And so it was, until Githongo's investigati...

Oil-backed loans cast shadow

President Déby's death has put the debt crisis negotiations on hold but Glencore faces pressure to make concessions

A month after Mahamat Idriss Déby took the helm in Chad in the wake of his father's death in April, huge questions remain over the country's economic fortunes, notably over ...

Chakwera loses his lustre

U-turns and misjudgements are damaging the President’s standing with the public as stresses in the ruling coalition mount

As befits a devout evangelist and former pastor, President Lazarus Chakwera promised to lead Malawians 'to Canaan' after winning last year's dramatic election, a re-run of the prev...

Picking up the pieces

The High Court’s rejection of the BBI process risks ripping apart a carefully constructed compromise

Having sailed through parliament, the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) bill hit a major and unexpected roadblock on 14 May, when the High Court ruled the constitutional reform pla...

War crimes trial divides justice-seekers

A warlord granted immunity for giving key evidence against ex-President Charles Taylor is himself in the dock facing similar charges

Echoes of the horrific civil wars of Sierra Leone and Liberia on the cusp of the 21st century still sound through the world, even as far as the Finnish city of Tampere, two hours' ...

Pointers

Not so splendid isolation

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is running out of room to manoeuvre as Addis Ababa's relations with the United States and Europe fall to their lowest ebb for three decades. At the heart ...

Don't call it a coup

Instead of heading a new transitional government, two of Mali's top three caretaker heavyweights, President Bah N'Daw and Prime Minister Moctar Ouane found themselves held in milit...

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