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Published 1st April 2021

Vol 62 No 7


Mozambique

Insurgents turn up the heat

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2021

A well-planned attack on Palma in Cabo Delgado cost dozens of lives, raising questions about the future of the $20 billion gas project nearby

Although government forces claimed definitive victory on 27 March over the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jammah (ASWJ) fighters who had seized control of Palma, on the northern tip of Cabo Delgado province, just four days earlier, clashes around the city were continuing as Africa Confidential went to press.

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Kingdom in peril

King Goodwill Zwelithini in September 2007. Pic: Rogan Ward / Africa Media Online / Alamy
King Goodwill Zwelithini in September 2007. Pic: Rogan Ward / Africa Media Online / Alamy

The death of the Zulu king, Goodwill Zwelithini, promises turmoil for the already volatile province of KwaZulu-Natal

The death of King Goodwill Zwelithini, 72, from Covid-19 complications on 12 March, without agreement on how the succession should be managed will complicate the kingdom's already ...


PF bets it all on the polls

Pic: johan10 / stock.adobe.com
Pic: johan10 / stock.adobe.com

Election season starts soon as lenders hang on to their funds and watch the ruling party take increasingly desperate measures to raise money

Contrary to some optimistic reports, Zambia is 'very far' from securing a bail-out deal from the International Monetary Fund, banking and official sources have told Africa Confiden...



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THE INSIDE VIEW

After the opening of the International Monetary Fund's spring meetings on 5 April, its leading shareholders look set to fire a big bazooka: a US$650 billion issuance of new 'Special Drawing Rights', the IMF's reserve currency. In quantitative terms, this marks a giant leap forward for African treasuries struggling to cope with the hit of recessions or lost growth and new demands on health and other public spending.

SDRs do not discriminate between the deserving and undeserving. Z...

After the opening of the International Monetary Fund's spring meetings on 5 April, its leading shareholders look set to fire a big bazooka: a US$650 billion issuance of new 'Special Drawing Rights', the IMF's reserve currency. In quantitative terms, this marks a giant leap forward for African treasuries struggling to cope with the hit of recessions or lost growth and new demands on health and other public spending.

SDRs do not discriminate between the deserving and undeserving. Zambia, Zimbabwe and Congo-Brazzaville, whose governments are accused of serial mismanagement may benefit disproportionately. But critics are struggling to develop a viable alternative. 

Conditionality slows the pace at which cash can get to those who need it. Since the pandemic struck, the IMF has dispersed over $107bn to 85 poor and middle-income countries. The Group of 20's debt service suspension initiative has been worth a meagre $5bn to 40 countries. Both initiatives amount to drops in the bucket against the trillions that developing economies will need in the next decade, according to the IMF.

The stimulus programmes in the United States and the United Kingdom work because the focus was on getting the money out as quickly as possible.

Without similar programmes, several African countries will face debt distress this year. Although the SDRs benefit some bad governments, its wider boost to economies justifies the initiative as the pandemic pain continues.

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Gutting the opposition

ZANU-PF's manipulations have rid parliament of dissent and silenced criticism of high-level corruption

The expulsion of six MPs from Zimbabwe's parliament after a strange ruling that they no longer belonged to their own party deals a harsh blow to the opposition, which President Emm...


Abiy gives first ground

Prime Minister Abiy has finally admitted to an open secret about Eritrean troops, but the guerrilla war in Tigray rumbles on

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has finally, if grudgingly, admitted to Ethiopia's House of People's Representatives on what everybody has known for months: Eritrean troops are operating...


How not to win friends

Regional disputes will limit Nairobi's chances of using leadership roles for influence beyond national borders

In 2021 Kenya holds one of two African seats at the United Nations Security Council, the chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, and for the next five years, the sec...


Dubaiba's honeymoon

The new unity government is being courted internationally, but it’s threatened by rivalry between myriad armed factions

Libya's new Government of National Unity (GNU), sworn into office on 15 March, is now widely accepted, despite accusations of vote-buying at the UN-organised Libyan Political Dialo...


Life after the bulldozer

The new president needs to make changes at the top of government to consolidate her position as factions vie for favour

Only two days elapsed between the announcement of late President John Magufuli's death and the swearing in of President Samia Suluhu Hassan, quelling fears that Magufuli loyalists ...


Ramaphosa rallies ANC against the Zuma-Magashule axis

After a marathon meeting, the party's National Executive backed Ramaphosa's call for action against ANC Secretary General Ace Magashule

The rival factions of the governing African National Congress are edging towards a final showdown after its National Executive Committee meeting on 27-29 March decided that the par...



Pointers

Tema players

Calls from transport and logistics experts are growing for a renegotiation of the terms of business between Meridian Port Services and the government in the wake of Africa Confiden...