The UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai is being heralded as a triumph by western nations and its Emirati hosts. That is largely because of the presence in the final communiqué of a commitment, albeit heavily qualified, to shift 'away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner'. It also allowed a compromise with international oil companies which have been promoting natural gas, less carbon-intensive than oil, as a transition fuel. Yet its envisaged pace of progress is far too slow for many African states hit hardest by climate change.

UN officials told Africa Confidential that progress towards a global carbon price and then tax – both are vital to raising finance for the transition and paying for loss and damage – needs to be turbo-charged. That lobby is getting louder, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva insisting that ending the nearly US$7 trillion-a-year fossil fuels subsidies was essential.

African political leaders and civil society played a weightier role in these negotiations. They organised the launch of the Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative to discourage fossil fuels in oil-heavy African countries. But this will need massive investment. The funding pledges, some $700 million, to the Loss and Damage Fund dominated the start of the COP, but it is a derisory amount compared with the cost of the climate damage that needs to be repaired.