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Published 30th November 2023

Vol 64 No 24

Tracking the missing billions

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

African, Asian and Latin American states have won a vote on tax reform at the UN – it could boost revenues and help them catch stolen cash

Ahead of the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly, African states were focusing on the need to claw back the billions of dollars lost in illicit financial flows (IFFs) as their treasuries searched for revenue to fund public services and pay spiralling debt service costs. On 22 November, a coalition of 125 mostly developing countries led by Nigeria won a vote in the UN General Assembly to establish an intergovernmental authority to draw up rules on tax and combating IFFs (AC Vol 64 No 21).

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The global south wins a big money battle

Pic: @UNDGACM_EN
Pic: @UNDGACM_EN

A decade-long campaign for global tax rules to be set by a UN authority could finally come to fruition

Years of campaigning to coordinate support from middle-income and developing countries saw the UN General Assembly vote decisively on 22 November to establish a UN tax authority, e...

Central bankers hunt for foreign exchange

Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com
Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com

From negative-equity Ghana to South Africa with its sizeable gold holdings, emerging markets are scrambling for liquidity

What happens when your central bank starts losing money? Less than you might think, in practical term at least. Ghanaians were horrified to hear their central bank – the Bank...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The status and funding of the Loss and Damage Fund will be the main institutional issue facing African and other world leaders as the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai opens on 30 November. It is set to become the third-leading UN channel for climate finance.

Agreement to launch the Fund, which is designed to compensate countries for the costs of extreme weather and climate change, was the key breakthrough at last year's summit in Sharm el Sheikh.

After months of difficult and ...

The status and funding of the Loss and Damage Fund will be the main institutional issue facing African and other world leaders as the UN COP28 climate summit in Dubai opens on 30 November. It is set to become the third-leading UN channel for climate finance.

Agreement to launch the Fund, which is designed to compensate countries for the costs of extreme weather and climate change, was the key breakthrough at last year's summit in Sharm el Sheikh.

After months of difficult and secret negotiations, members of the Transitional Committee have agreed on most of the Fund's terms of reference, but some key questions remain outstanding. The Fund will be hosted by the World Bank for its first four years. It will also be available to all nations that are 'particularly vulnerable' to climate change, which represents a success for African states who had to fend off a Swiss proposal that the fund only cater, at least initially, to coastal and island states.

Less clear is how it will be paid for, by whom and over what timeframe. Officials have indicated that the United Arab Emirates, which is hosting the summit in Dubai, will pledge $10 billion to the Loss and Damage Fund. That would put pressure on the United States, the EU and others to make similar financial commitments. But it would not solve the question of how the Fund, expected to be a long-term financing tool, could become viable.

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Tinubu struggles to rebalance the budget

Based on ultra-optimistic data on oil exports and tax, the President insists his market reform policies are on track

The Central Bank of Nigeria's second successive postponement of a bi-monthly meeting of its influential monetary policy committee (MPC), in November, points to dissension behind t...

Contenders brace for electoral upsets

Both the ruling African National Congress and the main opposition Democratic Alliance are struggling to navigate a new political era

The latest opinion survey results – by the Social Research Foundation, Ipsos and the Brenthurst Foundation – are unanimous that the African National Congress's (ANC) sh...

Floods put fighting on hold

A 'once-in-a-century' deluge halted troops movements while the President went on a world tour to raise funds

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has November's unprecedentedly severe rains and floods to thank for the fact he has not paid the full political price for the setback government for...

Will Tidjane Thiam's 'grand retour' succeed?

The former chief executive of Prudential and Credit Suisse is returning to national politics as presidential contender

A big choice faces the internal elections committee of the Parti démocratique de Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), the long-time ruling party now in opposition, as they prepare to...

Central bank’s Cardoso faces policy fight

The radio silence from President Tinubu's economic reform team is unsettling financial bigwigs

Mystery surrounds the failure of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to meet since its new governor Yemi Cardoso was appointed in late September. Bankers don't like ...

Junta falls out with its fanbase

The regime's split with the anti-French and pro-Russian Yerewolo – its biggest supporter – may have been provoked by links to Hizbollah

Fear of links to Iran and Hizbollah helped turn interim President Colonel Assimi Goïta's regime against its biggest domestic supporter, and to imprison its leader and harass o...

South-west bias claims weaken Tinubu's standing

The President is accused of stacking the cabinet and the military with his fellow Yoruba – and the critics are getting louder

The government's policy team has won plaudits internationally but at home it is struggling to reignite the economy and the burden of its reforms is hitting middle-class and poorer ...

Political fight intensifies over state transit company

Finance minister turns down bailout request from Transnet whose failings have cost the economy over US$26 billion

Tough decisions and strong political backing are needed to turn around the ailing state-owned transport and logistics company, Transnet which could face a ratings downgrade. Struct...

Advisors abandon ship amid poll storm

The presidency has been hit by a wave of resignations as doubts grow about his political survival

Key advisors to President Cyril Ramaphosa have been quitting as signs grow that support for the African National Congress (ANC) will below 50% of the vote in the 2024 national and ...

Meagre record haunts Tshisekedi's plan

For all the President's rhetoric and slick campaigning, many voters remember his failure to deliver on past promises

The campaigning season is careering towards election day on 20 December with Félix Tshisekedi expected to win another presidential term despite his meagre record in governme...

Much ado about Kidal

The junta's seizure of this key northern city from the Azawad coalition could create more problems than it solves

The victory of Forces armées maliennes (FAMa) and its Russian Wagner Group allies over the Coordination des mouvements de l'Azawad (CMA) for control of Kidal on 14 November ...

Pointers

Mix-up costs Juba envoy

The long-serving South Sudanese ambassador to the United Nations, Akuei Bona Malwal, is being recalled to Juba after a series of misunderstandings which enraged President Salva Kii...

Court redistributes poll wins

The Constitutional Court has re-allocated fraudulently won municipal elections between the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) and the oppositi...

Arrears all round

South Sudan has taken over the leadership of the expanding but cash-strapped East African Community, despite not paying its membership dues or much interest to the organisation in ...

The Pademba putsch

The main beneficiaries of the failed coup against President Julius Maada Bio's government in the early hours of 26 November seem to be the 1,890 inmates sprung from the Pademba pri...

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