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Published 27th April 2023

Vol 64 No 9


Sudan

How the generals blew up the transition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

The outbreak of all-out war in Khartoum has produced an indelible conclusion – that the armed forces are incapable of governing the country

In full view of diplomats and international organisations in Khartoum, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had been preparing for battle for several months in the run-up to the outbreak of fighting on 15 April. The most surprising point about the clashes was how quickly they escalated into full-scale conflict in the capital. In little more than a week, most diplomats, many international officials and dual nationals have fled the country, reinforcing Sudanese people's sense of abandonment and fears, once more, that the warring factions would have impunity for mass slaughter of civilians.

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Regional states hold back, for now

Smoke rising from buildings in Khartoum, 22 April 22 2023. Pic: Reuters/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Alamy
Smoke rising from buildings in Khartoum, 22 April 22 2023. Pic: Reuters/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Alamy

Most governments are treading carefully, trying to prevent the conflict from spilling over the borders

The feared internationalisation of the fight between the forces of Generals Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti' is contingent on how long it lasts and its out...


A battle for regional control

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2023

Clashes between jihadist groups are increasing as they seek to strengthen their territorial control

Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin' (JNIM), the Sahel's largest jihadist umbrella alliance, is under pressure from an aggressive fightback by Islamic State in the Greater Sahara...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Facing the prospect of Russia's President Vladimir Putin, indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, landing in Cape Town to attend a BRICS summit in August, Cyril Ramaphosa has backed himself into a corner. South Africa's membership of the ICC obliges the authorities to arrest Putin if he travels to the country. And western embassies in Pretoria regard the matter as a litmus test.

Late on 25 April, Ramaphosa issued a statement backtracking on an announcement earlier...

Facing the prospect of Russia's President Vladimir Putin, indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court, landing in Cape Town to attend a BRICS summit in August, Cyril Ramaphosa has backed himself into a corner. South Africa's membership of the ICC obliges the authorities to arrest Putin if he travels to the country. And western embassies in Pretoria regard the matter as a litmus test.

Late on 25 April, Ramaphosa issued a statement backtracking on an announcement earlier that day that South Africa intended to leave the ICC. The confusion, it appears, was over whether Ramaphosa's ANC had passed a resolution to leave the court.

Unhappiness about the perception, not without justification, that the ICC has been far more activist in prosecuting cases in Africa than other regions, is not unique to South Africa. Yet its confusion over whether to leave an international institution designed to try war criminals comes at a critical time. This week, diplomats and international officials were scrambling to flee Sudan having presided over failed negotiations for a transition to civil rule. They are leaving the Sudanese people to face the depredations of a conflict in which rival forces believe they operate with impunity. Yet, the rival commanders may one day be charged at the ICC. It would send a terrible signal for South Africa to weaken its support for the institution.

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The price of peace

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