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Published 6th October 2022

Vol 63 No 20

Nigeria

An election umpire besieged on all sides

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

A younger, better-informed and more demanding electorate is challenging the state and mainstream politicians to run fairer elections

Every week or so a new scandal about a plan to steal the national elections next year hits the headlines and social media. One of the latest claims is that there are over 10 million false names on the voter register; another claims that the ruling party has secured several positions as Resident Electoral Commissioners in key states which would give it the scope to influence voting at constituency level.

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Palace coup could usher in Moscow's mercenaries

Burkina Faso's new military leader Ibrahim Traore, Ouagadougou, 2 October 2022. Pic: Vincent Bado/Reuters/Alamy
Burkina Faso's new military leader Ibrahim Traore, Ouagadougou, 2 October 2022. Pic: Vincent Bado/Reuters/Alamy

New leader Captain Traoré says security crisis forced his faction to seize power but it could work with Russia, Turkey or the US military

On 3 October, a day after he was confirmed in power in Ouagadougou, new military leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré told a sceptical audience that he understood the urgency of th...

Penalise the plunder, say protestors

Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com
Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com

Civil society groups are up in arms about the Auditor-General's refusal to use his powers to recover $1.7bn in misappropriated public funds

A coalition of civil society groups is protesting the unwillingness of the Auditor-General, Johnson Asiedu, to act on his latest annual audit of government expenditure, published l...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Reports of tens of thousands of battlefield deaths since fighting resumed between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal forces and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front in August underscore the scale of the bloodshed in Ethiopia's civil war. As many as half a million troops have been mobilised, while the World Bank estimates that between 10 and 15 million Ethiopians face acute food insecurity.

The failure of international and regional organisations to broker substantive peace talks ref...

Reports of tens of thousands of battlefield deaths since fighting resumed between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal forces and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front in August underscore the scale of the bloodshed in Ethiopia's civil war. As many as half a million troops have been mobilised, while the World Bank estimates that between 10 and 15 million Ethiopians face acute food insecurity.

The failure of international and regional organisations to broker substantive peace talks reflects the weakening multilateral system, further undermined by geopolitical rivalries. United States special envoy Mike Hammer will return to the region in the week ending 8 October, with a mandate to 'support the launch of African Union-led peace talks', said Washington. The EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell said it wants 'to strengthen an African solution and prevent a further regionalisation of the conflict.'

Some ground has been laid for that with the news that both Abiy and the TPLF have accepted the AU's invitation to peace talks in South Africa at which the mediators are set to be Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo, Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta and South Africa's Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. Much work lies ahead to agree an agenda and sequencing from a humanitarian ceasefire to a longer-term peace. But the biggest hurdle may be convincing Eritrea to abandon its full-scale offensive on Tigray from the north.

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Whitehall talks up its business aims

Liz Truss's government says its strategy will mean more trade and investment in Africa, but critics say there are fewer resources for the region

When she was Foreign Secretary a few months ago, Britain's new Prime Minister Liz Truss said her development strategy would pare back aid and promote business as a means to influen...

Loyalty trumps all in Ruto's cabinet

Close allies of the president and his deputy dominate the new team, with a sprinkling of technocrats, but few women

After a narrow election win and a slim majority of MPs backing him in parliament, President William Ruto is taking no chances with his first cabinet. His team is dominated by ultra...

Kenyatta era debts haunt Ruto's growth plan

Pressure grows on state finances after details emerge of a $45 million spending spree by the last administration ahead of the elections

Facing growing financial pressures, President William Ruto appears to be rethinking his earlier rejection of any restructuring of Kenya's foreign debt. Public debt stands at 8.56 t...

Zuma humiliated on his home turf

KwaZulu-Natal's ANC branch is backing former health minster Zweli Mkhize as party leader – worrying both the Zuma and Ramaphosa camps

The decision by the African National Congress in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa's second biggest province and its largest reservoir of party members, to choose former health min...

Interest rate pressures mount across region

Six African central banks hiked rates in September responding to faltering currencies and rising food and fuel prices

A concatenation of economic, financial and environmental pressures – ranging from the strengthening United States dollar, Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, slowing growth in Chin...

ZANU-PF beats its economic chest

The governing party will open its congress with economic boosterism, but hyperinflation and repression define its rule

The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's seventh party congress will preach empowerment and a '2030' vision of shared wealth when it opens on 26 October, but such opti...

Geopolitical divides take centre stage at the UN

New policy statements on Africa from Washington and Brussels are being measured against sluggish actions on debt and climate policy

Russia's war on Ukraine dominated the best attended UN General Assembly for years – much to the detriment of progress on preparations for the COP27 climate summit and a more ...

New coalition aims to supplant the ANC

An alliance of unions, civic activists, and business is launch a new party next year to fight the 2024 elections

Activists are building a broad-based movement to take on the country's three main parties ahead of the widely forecast realignment should the ruling African National Congress lose ...

Pointers

Frank Timis, eco-warrior

Australian-Romanian businessman Frank Timis, a veteran of stock exchange fraud and corruption scandals, is charging into agriculture, snapping up vast landholdings in Senegal and o...

Cops to lose rights

Mali's military junta plans to militarise the police and eliminate the right of police officers to strike and unionise, diplomatic sources have told Africa Confidential. Discussion...

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