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Published 3rd February 2022

Vol 63 No 3

Pandemic hit to growth and trade fuels instability

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2022

Recoveries in Africa and South Asia are lagging behind industrial economies in what the IMF calls a dangerous divergence

Several African economies could still take years to recover from the loss in GDP suffered from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, according to the latest World Bank data.

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Bankers circle the presidency

Akinwumi Adesina. Pic: Allstar Picture Library Ltd / Alamy
Akinwumi Adesina. Pic: Allstar Picture Library Ltd / Alamy

The country’s military is over-stretched and few trust the political class but its financiers are projecting power like never before

As the race for next year's presidential elections heats up, two political outsiders have been named as contenders with support by some in the top ranks of President Muhammadu Buha...

Balance of forces in ANC favours Cyril

Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: GovernmentZA (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Cyril Ramaphosa. Pic: GovernmentZA (CC BY-ND 2.0)

A basic income grant and a land expropriation law may allow the President to strengthen his grip on the ruling party

When South African President Cyril Ramaphosa takes the podium on 10 February in Cape Town's City Hall – which will substitute for the colonial-era parliamentary buildings gut...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

In the early afternoon of 1 February in Bissau, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his cabinet came under armed attack at a government compound. After four hours of shooting, forces loyal to Embaló regained control. Who and what was behind the attack is yet to emerge although Embaló has elliptically referred to a plot by drug barons, insisting that the army remained 100% loyal.

Guinea-Bissau's civilian government narrowly avoided becoming the sixth in Africa to...

In the early afternoon of 1 February in Bissau, President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and his cabinet came under armed attack at a government compound. After four hours of shooting, forces loyal to Embaló regained control. Who and what was behind the attack is yet to emerge although Embaló has elliptically referred to a plot by drug barons, insisting that the army remained 100% loyal.

Guinea-Bissau's civilian government narrowly avoided becoming the sixth in Africa to be usurped by the military in the past year. As the shooting broke out in Bissau, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian was mulling a response to the expulsion of his ambassador by Mali's military rulers. And in Accra, Ghana's President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo was preparing to chair another emergency summit of the Economic Community of West African States, this time on what sanctions to impose on the new military leaders of Burkina Faso.

This wave of putsches follows multiple failures on governance and fighting Islamist insurgents, against a backdrop of weakening economies. Each coup has distinct national causes but there are commonalities such as disenchantment with government performance and old-guard politicians. In Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso, colonels and more junior officers led the coups. And cutting European ties, especially with France, in favour of Russia and sometimes China, is another common theme.

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New bid to revive the opposition

Nelson Chamisa hopes to replace the MDC, which dissolved in acrimony, with a new party that can take on the government

On 24 January, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's main opponent in the last general elections, Nelson Chamisa, launched a new political party, hoping to close the chapter of rivalries ...

La francophonie grabs the focus

A heavy emphasis on French-speaking countries risks derailing the coming African Union and European Union summit in Brussels

To general surprise, Europe's French and Belgian leaders have not invited any of Africa's Anglophone or Lusophone states to preparatory talks ahead of a critical regional summit.

High noon for Fishrot perpetrators

Namibia is gearing up for the biggest corruption trial in its post-independence history, with SWAPO’s future in the balance

A long-delayed bribery trial, in which 10 highly connected businessmen and politicians stand accused of siphoning money from Namibia's fishing industry, risks turning voters away f...

The on-off elections are back on

Western officials banged heads together in Mogadishu to forestall more clashes and force agreement. Polling should now end by 25 February

The country has stepped back from the brink once more as the tension eased between President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' and the man he suspended as prime minister, Mohamed ...

Another domino falls to the military

After a day of shooting in the capital, Lt Col Damiba takes over brandishing a resignation letter from the ousted leader

The military takeover in Ouagadougou, the third in West Africa in a year, is a challenge to neighbouring governments, especially Niger, and the region's wider security strategy. In...

EU offers new migration deal

Pressure for reform from African leaders and Europe's demographic deficit could lead to change in the 'Fortress Europe' policy

Ahead of next month's African Union-European Union summit, EU leaders propose easing some of the toughest restrictions on migration, moving away from the current focus on strict co...

Fraud furore engulfs Chakwera

A scam involving ministers and UK businesses is causing public fury and dismay at the President's handling of the case

Accusations of procurement corruption, fraud and bribery are gripping the public and damaging the image of President Lazarus Chakwera, a strong critic of his predecessors over graf...

Pointers

Sall sags at polls

The die is not cast for President Macky Sall and his Benno Bokk Yaakar (BBY) coalition, as June's legislative elections loom. But the 23 January local polls show they now face seri...

Communications breakdown

Tanzania's Energy Minister, January Makamba, continued his attempt to rejuvenate the power sector by announcing a clear-out of all the staff of the troubled power utility Tanzanian...

Making the vote count

Voter registration ahead of the August general election is low because people are disillusioned with politicians and the system, say analysts and activists, and also because of bac...

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