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Published 9th February 2018

Vol 59 No 3


Rival Arab powers take their fight to Africa

Map Copyright © Africa Confidential 2018
Map Copyright © Africa Confidential 2018

Two Middle Eastern power blocs are buying friends and influence in the Horn but further damaging prospects for stability there

Saudi Arabia's and the United Arab Emirates' military dealmaking in the Horn of Africa is deepening rivalries in a region already overflowing with arms. This year, there has been a flurry of diplomatic missions and in-camera meetings at the African Union about tensions triggered by the growing foreign military presence in the Horn. Gulf states see the area bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden as their sphere of influence, militarily and commercially.

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The goodbye gets longer

After weeks of messy negotiations, Jacob Zuma is due to quit this month but will be spending more time with his lawyers

The latest deadline for Jacob Zuma's exit from the Presidency is 21 February. On that day the budget is due to be read in parliament, according to Baleka Mbete, Speaker of Parliame...


Rumblings in the regions

Veteran soldier-politicians, agitated by the clashes between farmers and herdsmen and a poor economy, urge Buhari not to run again

Do not adjust your almanacs. The succession of statements from retired generals and civil war veterans, most of whom held power in the 1980s, may make it look like Nigerian politic...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

It took Chief Justice David Maraga to give a constitutional perspective to the political ructions in Kenya over the last week. The government has ignored court orders to lift its closure of four television stations that broadcast Raila Odinga's theatrical inauguration as 'People's President' on 30 January. And instead of producing Miguna Miguna, the self-styled general of Odinga's National Resistance Movement, on 7 February as the court ordered, the government deported Miguna, who has ...

It took Chief Justice David Maraga to give a constitutional perspective to the political ructions in Kenya over the last week. The government has ignored court orders to lift its closure of four television stations that broadcast Raila Odinga's theatrical inauguration as 'People's President' on 30 January. And instead of producing Miguna Miguna, the self-styled general of Odinga's National Resistance Movement, on 7 February as the court ordered, the government deported Miguna, who has dual Canadian-Kenyan nationality, the day before. Obeying court orders is not optional, Maraga pointed out: it is an obligation in a constitutional democracy.

Developments in Kenya over the past year, such as the shooting of opposition supporters and serial harassment of dissidents have prompted comparisons with Daniel arap Moi's authoritarianism. Arrests of opposition MPs and suspending the passports of Odinga's allies are part of a growing crackdown. And the publication of a fake obituary of Jimi Wanjigi, an opposition financier, in a Nairobi daily points to a particularly sinister sense of humour among Odinga's adversaries. Some fear the next step might be the arrest of Odinga himself, a move that would surely send up the balloon in areas such as Nairobi's Kibera and upcountry Kisumu.

Odinga argues that post-election disputes make Uhuru Kenyatta's government illegitimate. Flouting court orders, forced deportations and suspending passports is profoundly helping his argument.

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Flying blind

The US sale of ground-attack aircraft is hugely expensive and is of doubtful strategic value in the fight against Boko Haram

President Donald Trump's decision to unfreeze export approval for weapons for Nigeria, mainly combat aircraft, is under fire. Not only does the Nigerian air force (NAF) have a reco...


Skeletons in the cupboard

A grand jury indictment of Och-Ziff lifts the lid on suspect deals between international financiers and investors in Africa

The latest probe into the United States hedge fund Och-Ziff's dealings in Africa has uncovered secret deals involving a company set up by the 'great and the good' of mining investm...


Judges to rule on Lungu's future

Opposition MPs accuse the President of putting an unqualified judge on the Constitutional Court

The Constitutional Court was ordered to resume hearings on whether or not President Edgar Lungu may serve a third term of office on 30 January. But Court president Hilda Chibomba's...


Strains on the front line

Opération Pagnali signals a cross-national resolve to fight jihadists, but gaps in command and control may unsettle the G5's future

Important organisational and financial matters may remain unresolved, but the G5 Sahel countries' new joint military force is preparing to launch Opération Pagnali regardless. It w...


Diplomats and journalists drawn into election row

The government has banned reporting of Raila's 'inauguration' and picked a fight with the EU election observers' mission as the political impasse worsens

The government took three of Kenya's main television stations off the air rather than allow them to broadcast opposition leader Raila Odinga's self-styled inauguration as the 'peop...


Jockeying for position

With presidential elections two years away, ambitious politicians in the ruling party are manoeuvring to inherit Ouattara's mantle

'You can't be in government and in opposition at the same time. You must choose.' Joël N'Guessan, one of the ruling Rassemblement des républicains (RDR) Vice-Presidents, thus addr...


IMF stops funds over 'election' budget

The government is spending IMF money on trying to win the election, not on agreed measures for economic recovery. The Fund has suspended payments

A confidential despatch by United States diplomats in Freetown has laid bare the cause of strained relations between President Ernest Bai Koroma's government and the International ...



Pointers

Drilling down

Sierra Leone's biggest mining company, Tonkolili Iron Ore, has been accused of complicity in rape, assault and the false imprisonment of a protester in a landmark case being heard ...


Slow track for loans case

Public pressure remains as high as ever on the governing Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) to see justice done over the $2 billion hidden loans scandal. However, party h...


Lease to appeal

President Emmerson Mnangagwa has begun to tackle the tough task of balancing his inauguration promise to compensate white farmers for expropriation of their properties with his sup...