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Published 12th January 2018

Vol 59 No 1

Zimbabwe

Old ZANU-PF in new bottles

President Emmerson Mnangagwa Pic: Shaun Jusa/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images
President Emmerson Mnangagwa Pic: Shaun Jusa/Xinhua News Agency/PA Images

Post-Mugabe optimism faces a reality check. Bolstered by fresh funds, Emmerson Mnangagwa is set for electoral victory

As the first new leader that Zimbabwe has had in 37 years, President Emmerson Mnangagwa begins the year riding a wave of goodwill, having removed the apparently eternally-entrenched Robert Mugabe from power, cleared the streets of the despised police roadblocks and ushered in what looks like a new political dispensation. However, the euphoria of the post-Mugabe street party will fade and Mnangagwa will find it increasingly difficult to manage expectations.

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Cyril presses his advantage

The ANC's new leader will need all his legendary negotiating skills to edge Zuma out of the Union Buildings

The centre of gravity in the governing African National Congress has shifted towards its new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, who now has a decisive tactical advantage over the national...

All about votes and the naira

The government will struggle to kick-start the economy and deal with security threats as electioneering begins

Politics and everyday life in Nigeria in 2018 will be dominated by concerns about security, corruption and the still sluggish economy. All three core issues will weigh heavily on c...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

In politics as in economics, 2018 will be the year of the variable-speed Africa, as our special survey of the year ahead makes clear. Sometimes, the sharp differences are between regions: high-growth economies in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya in the east compared with slow growth South Africa, Ang...

In politics as in economics, 2018 will be the year of the variable-speed Africa, as our special survey of the year ahead makes clear. Sometimes, the sharp differences are between regions: high-growth economies in Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya in the east compared with slow growth South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe in the south. Sometimes, there are sharp differences within regions: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal are growing strongly but Nigeria's forecast growth for the year barely exceeds population growth. Nigeria's lacklustre economic revival points to a continuing negative trend: some of the continent's biggest economies, such as Angola and Algeria, are chronically under-performing.

The political contrasts across Africa are sharper still. South Africans are following in minute detail the constitutional and judicial manoeuvring aimed at removing Jacob Zuma from the state presidency. In Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya and Nigeria, constitutional and electoral reform is on the table, even extending parliamentary oversight of presidents' spending. But in Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Libya, the contest for power is more about armed groups than amendments to the constitution. To that list must now be added Congo-Kinshasa, where President Kabila's obduracy is sparking several disparate rebellions, and Cameroon, where four decades of misrule are coming home to roost as rebellion takes hold in the country's western provinces.

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Wanted: change and security

President Keïta may well win this year's election but security is poor and popular resentment is growing

Two events in Bamako in June 2017 point to what 2018 holds in store. The first was the attack on the Kangaba Resort, just outside the capital, which killed four. The other was the ...

Forward on the southern front

The Kingdom sees a big future for itself south of the Sahara, but it may not have the resources to ensure success

King Mohammed VI (M6) has invested a huge amount of political capital – and the biggest Moroccan banks and corporations' money – in making one of Africa's most notable strategic pi...

Crushing the enemies within

President Magufuli's clampdown on political opponents and the media will continue unabated, which won't help the economy

A tough twelve months lie ahead in Tanzania. The economy will continue to slow down. Under-pressure tax collectors will continue to squeeze domestic investors while foreign busines...

Trouble in the engine room

The biggest threats to the successes of the 'developmental state' are the growing challenges to the ruling party's legitimacy

The most worrying thing about the chaos towards the end of the year in Ethiopia was just how commonplace it seemed – a clear indication that the engine room of the Horn of Africa i...

Splits and fusions

A weak President and gaffe-prone ministers seem ill-equipped to tackle pressing issues of regional instability and economic stagnation

Security minister Simon Compaoré's latest performance was anything but impressive. He was filmed, late one October night, brandishing a Kalashnikov in the house of Ladji Coulibaly,...

Maputo faces off with the Fund

Frelimo believes it can stare down donors and lenders, avoiding reforms and hanging tough over the secret loans

The final year of Filipe Nyusi's difficult tenure as President of Mozambique is unlikely to end on a high note. As the 2019 elections approach, a dose of cold reality is in store f...

Cold war and glacial change

Hostility to Morocco will persist and the political system will stay frozen, as the Western Sahara issue languishes

Speculation around the scheduled 2019 presidential election says much about the snail's pace at which Algeria's political class moves. Front de libération nationale (FLN) loyalists...

Political rift will linger

The unrest and instability of the prolonged electoral crisis will continue to dominate politics as Kenyatta looks to his legacy

The political tug-of-war between the governing Jubilee Party of Kenya and the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) which dominated 2017 is expected to continue through the res...

Cracks in the federal system

Farmajo is swamped by an ocean of political problems, and victory over Al Shabaab will be no closer this year

No one could have predicted that Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed 'Farmajo' would have lost so much popularity, and become so dictatorial less than a year after becoming president. He is m...

Low expectations for peace talks

As the two sides in the conflict meet in Addis they trade accusations of unwarranted attacks. The notion of talks being 'revitalised' is already coming under question

The 'High Level Revitalisation Forum' in Addis Ababa looked doomed as soon as it began on 18 December. Several military offensives are already in progress and are unlikely to stop....

Bombs, votes and petrodollars

Buoyed by Gulf money, the President is certain to be re-elected. But Islamic insurgents pose a growing threat

The presidential election, to be held on 26-28 March, and all but certainly resulting in a second term for Abdel Fattah el Sisi, will be the major event of 2018. El Sisi and his ba...

The electoral mirage

Credible elections are no more likely this year than last but worsening living standards could trigger open revolt

The year begins with a distinct sense of déjà vu from a year ago. Postponed elections, originally supposed to take place in late 2016, are now promised for the end of the year to r...

A year to deliver

After tackling inherited economic chaos, the government has to make good on its campaign promises

President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo starts the year well ahead of the governing New Patriotic Party in the popularity stakes after a difficult first year in power. That is a func...

Pushing Zuma to the exit

New ANC leader Ramaphosa faces an early trial of his political strength in party and government

The next test for Cyril Ramaphosa, elected president of the African National Congress on 18 December, is to engineer the departure of his predecessor Jacob Zuma from the national p...

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