confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
Sliver of hope for Ethiopia peace as rivals head for talks
Blue Lines
Reports of tens of thousands of battlefield deaths since fighting resumed between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's federal forces and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front in August underscore the scale of the bloodshed in Ethiopia's civil war. As many as half a million troops have been mobilised, while the World Bank estimates that between 10 and 15 million Ethiopians face acute food insecurity.
The failure of international and regional organisations to broker substantive peace talks reflects the weakening multilateral system, further undermined by geopolitical rivalries. United States special envoy Mike Hammer will return to the region in the week ending 8 October, with a mandate to 'support the launch of African Union-led peace talks', said Washington. The EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell said it wants 'to strengthen an African solution and prevent a further regionalisation of the conflict.'
Some ground has been laid for that with the news that both Abiy and the TPLF have accepted the AU's invitation to peace talks in South Africa at which the mediators are set to be Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo, Kenya's Uhuru Kenyatta and South Africa's Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka. Much work lies ahead to agree an agenda and sequencing from a humanitarian ceasefire to a longer-term peace. But the biggest hurdle may be convincing Eritrea to abandon its full-scale offensive on Tigray from the north.