Kenya’s military incursion into Somalia is less than a month old but is already the subject of contradictory statements by the government and its Western allies. Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen is under threat from the Kenya Armed Forces and their allies’ Special Forces and air power but the invasion also offers opportunities. Al Shabaab may be able to recoup some recent losses if Lower and Middle Juba end up controlled by Kenyan surrogate forces that alienate local people. The offensive shows, however, that the United States and its allies have faith in a military solution to the Somali problem. Kenyan forces are pushing towards Kismayo in a land assault that will combine with attacks by French and US forces from the sea to spell possible defeat for Al Shabaab in the key port. Yet with no political solution on offer, Al Shabaab could revive.
Kenya’s intervention in Somalia was first announced on 15 October by Minister of Internal Security George Kinuthia Saitoti and Minister of Defence Mohamed Yusuf Haji, and it was o...
Vol 52 No 22 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
Kenya’s confusion over its war aims proceeds in part from deep divisions within the elites and the fact that key actors support different Somali forces who have nothing in common e...
A hardline faction in the government and the bitter disappointment of the former rebels threaten the country’s hard-won peace
The 26 October arrest of opposition politician William Munyembabazi by the powerful security service, the Service national de renseignement (SNR), has deepened the mistrust in Buju...
Vol 52 No 21 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
After chasing kidnappers across the border, the Kenyan army is digging in for the longer term in Somalia
As the Kenyan army ventured deeper into Somalia, in its first cross-border campaign in 44 years, a regional grand strategy to deal with Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen is beginn...
Political and military oppositionists coordinate their campaigns as economic pressures mount on Khartoum
A new military-political alliance of northern oppositionists is determinedly confronting the Khartoum regime, just three months after South Sudan formally seceded. The two developm...
The impetus for the opposition’s new determination comes from the military success of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-North in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states. The SPLA-N...
Accusations in Kampala of high-level corporate bribery are as much about politics as business
Documents purporting to show that Ireland’s Tullow Oil made corrupt payments of 16.5 million euros (US$22.59 mn.) to Uganda’s Foreign Minister, Sam Kahamba Kutesa, and other state ...
Vol 52 No 21 |
- TANZANIA
- BRITAIN
Confusion still surrounds British arms company BAE Systems’ failure to make its promised ex-gratia payment of £29.5 million (US$45.6 mn.) to Tanzania, as part of a global settlemen...
Vol 52 No 21 |
- MALAWI
- SUDAN
Western governments seem unimpressed by the efforts of Foreign Minister Arthur Peter Mutharika, brother of President Bingu wa Mutharika, to persuade them to restore aid to Malawi. ...
Accusations of corruption in the electricity industry persist, as do the chronic shortages that undermine the economy and public services
A scandal in the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has brought attention to a troubled area of government, greed among members of parliament and Tanzania’s chronic electricity ...