PREVIEW
Rejecting conditions such as cutting subsidies, the embattled leader rejects 'diktats' from the IMF
After a two-week absence from the public stage, President Kaïs Saïed returned to the fray on 4 April with fresh condemnation of his opponents, announcing that many were under investigation for 'contacts with foreign diplomats' and that he was dismissing several judges.
Two days later in Monastir, Saïed publicly rejected any cuts to subsidies and privatisation parastatal companies to secure a bailout from the IMF: 'I will not hear diktats.'
IMF officials say discussions with the Tunisian authorities on a loan package are continuing but there is no date set for the programme to go to the board for approval. This week, Tunisia's finance minister and central bank governor are attending the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC. Pressure has been mounting from top officials in the United States and the European Union for Tunisia to conclude the IMF deal as soon as possible.
Saïed's ministers had reached an agreement in principle in October on a US $1.9 billion bailout from the IMF (AC Vol 63 No 22, Unions and oppositionists warn of a social explosion). Now the main blocks are political. Saïed would need trade union and civil society support – neither of which he has – to ensure the bailout plan gets to the IMF board.
Saïed argues that the IMF's demand for cuts to energy and food subsidies, along with cuts to the public wage bill, will worsen local conditions.
'Regarding the IMF, foreign diktats that will lead to more poverty are unacceptable,' argued Saïed. 'Tunisians must count on themselves,' he added when asked about the alternatives to IMF support.
Targeting the IMF will do little to boost Saïed's dwindling public support. On 9 April, hundreds of opposition supporters gathered in Tunis demanding the release of political prisoners. At the rally, Samir Ben Armor, an official of the Al Joumhouri (Republican) party called for a 'national dialogue' to draw up a plan to return Tunisia to democratic governance.
Tunisia could face a balance of payments crisis within months, say economic analysts, if it does not secure emergency funding. Despite strong urging from the United States and the European Union for Tunisia to agree a programme with the IMF, Saïed is sticking to his rejection of conditions such as subsidy cuts and privatisation of state assets.
In February, the World Bank suspended talks on future funding with Tunisia in the wake of Saïed's racially charged claims about a plot to settle migrants from sub-Saharan Africa in Tunisia (AC Vol 64 No 7, Saïed's racial crackdown deepens economic woes ).
Reports about Saïed's health, following his two-week absence, have prompted speculation about whether he will seek a second term at elections due in October 2024. Long before that his government will have to take some tough economic decisions, if it is going to stave off further mass protests and mounting dissension.
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