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The Ruto-Raila trade-off redraws the electoral map

Pic: @RailaOdinga
Pic: @RailaOdinga

Both the president and opposition leader benefit from the national unity government, but there are plenty of losers

The odd man out in the latest round of political musical chairs is Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as Kenya’s political parties realign to prepare for the 2027 elections. Veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga is in power, if not in office, after four members of his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), including party chair John Mbadi, now Finance Minister, and Odinga’s two deputies Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, were brought into William Ruto’s unofficial unity government in July, with Mbadi as Cabinet Treasury Secretary.

Dangote and Tinubu wrestle over the future of oil

Aliko Dangote. Pic: @DangoteGroup
Aliko Dangote. Pic: @DangoteGroup

The vested interests of the political class are driving the public fight over a US$20 billion refinery and may determine its fate

The threat of more mass protests and the spiralling cost of petrol, over 1,000 naira (62 US cents) a litre in parts of Nigeria, have played to Aliko Dangote’s advantage in hi...

Faye mulls a snap parliamentary poll

Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Pic: @PR_Diomaye
Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Pic: @PR_Diomaye

Differences between the president’s measured style and that of his fiery prime minister may complicate national politics and regional diplomacy

Dakar political life is slowing down in August giving President Bassirou Diomaye Faye some time to weigh up whether to dissolve the National Assembly in September and call early le...

Back to bulldozer politics

Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia
Samia Suluhu Hassan. Pic: @SuluhuSamia

Without spelling out her plan to seek election next year, President Samia is cracking down on opponents and rivals in the ruling party

The arrests of hundreds of opposition leaders and activists planning to attend rallies marking International Youth Day, suggests that the spirit of former President John Magufuli l...

Dollars still dominate the economy despite the launch of the ZiG

Mthuli Ncube. Pic: @ZimTreasury
Mthuli Ncube. Pic: @ZimTreasury

The country’s largest independent brokerage says the government should restore the trust of its citizens instead of forcing them to abandon the dollar

It has been four months since the introduction of the ‘Zimbabwe Gold’ or ZiG on 8 April and confidence in the currency has not improved. The official exchange rate betw...

Paranoia on show as Harare hosts summit

Emmerson Mnangagwa at the 7th SADC Summit Public Lecture. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Emmerson Mnangagwa at the 7th SADC Summit Public Lecture. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Rights groups outraged as SADC hands its chair to Mnangagwa after security agents arrest and beat up over 100 activists

Such was the ferocity of the government’s assault on civil society activists and oppositionists ahead of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit in Harare on...

Burhan risks isolation by boycotting Geneva peace talks

Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Pic: Public domain, GPA Photo Archive
Abdel Fattah al Burhan. Pic: Public domain, GPA Photo Archive

Hemeti and his sponsors in the United Arab Emirates are exploiting the Sudan Armed Forces’ clumsy diplomacy

The Sudan peace talks which started in Geneva on 14 August mark a new phase in the posturing and positioning that has derailed so much of the diplomacy and mediation efforts so far...

A pawn in a zero-sum game

Joseph Figueira Martin
Joseph Figueira Martin

Western officials won’t help a detained aid worker in Bangui for fear of losing influence with Touadéra’s increasingly arbitrary regime

The detention of 41-year-old aid worker Joseph Figueira Martin at Camp de Roux in Bangui shows the power of Russia’s security services over President Faustin-Archange Touad&e...

Al Shabaab adaptability causes alarm

The moment a suicide bomb detonated at Lido Beach
The moment a suicide bomb detonated at Lido Beach

On 2 August at 9.50pm at Lido Beach, Al Shabaab launched its deadliest attack in Mogadishu since two car-bombs claimed 121 lives and hundreds of casualties in the capital. At the b...

Ben-Menashe heads to Gaborone

Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko
Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko

The flurry of new client activity continues for Ari Ben-Menashe, the Israeli former spy and arms dealer turned political lobbyist. Ben-Menashe, who has taken on Kenya’s forme...

Hurdles for Progressive Caucus

First Cabinet Lekgotla of the GNU. Pic: @PresidencyZA
First Cabinet Lekgotla of the GNU. Pic: @PresidencyZA

The coalition of opposition parties has lost some members to Ramaphosa’s Government of National Unity while another is embroiled in the VBS scandal

When the United Democratic Movement’s Bantu Holomisa and Economic Freedom Fighters’ Julius Malema called a press conference on the morning of 14 June at the Cape Town C...

Raila names his price

Pic: @RailaOdinga
Pic: @RailaOdinga

In a move to quell growing dissatisfaction with his government, President Ruto has nominated allies of the main opposition leader to his cabinet

Four ministries, including the Treasury, was the price Raila Odinga set for propping up William Ruto’s ailing presidency and to establish what is effectively Kenya’s fi...

Central bank floats birr to secure IMF deal

Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com
Pic: RODWORKS / stock.adobe.com

Foreign exchange reform will remove market distortions, but is the economy entering a danger zone of further devaluation and greater inflation?

The quid pro quo that Addis Ababa will gain from the international financial institutions and from sundry investors and creditors must have reassured Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that...

Moscow sees a year of transition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2024

African governments are evaluating more closely what President Putin’s government has to offer beyond security services

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