Within Chad's Zaghawa communities especially the Bideyat or Béri people the opponents of President Mahamat Kaka are trying to capitalise on the El Fasher fight...

They say that Hemeti's military strength depends on President Mahamat Kaka helping the United Arab Emirates transport arms to the RSF as documented by the New York Times last month (AC Vol 65 No 15 As the civil war threatens the region the UAE boosts Hemeti's militia)...

In February Mahamat Kaka's cousin and political rival Yaya Dillo Djérou was killed in a clash with the FIR that his supporters say was a targeted assassination (AC Vol 65 No 6 Kaka paves a hard road to sham poll)...

Ousmane also insists that his followers are willing to return to Chad and make Mahamat Kaka pay for his support for Hemeti...

These splits within the Zaghawa over alignments in Darfur are threatening Mahamat Kaka...

A senior security official from the Abu Dhabi government accompanied Mahamat Kaka on his trip to meet France's President Emmanuel Macron last year (AC Vol 64 No 23 Presidents Mahamat Kaka and Macron meet on security threats)...

All this has encouraged political factions wanting to overthrow Mahamat Kaka to form a broad-based opposition in Chad...

Minni Minawi the leader of the Sudanese Liberation Army was invited to Paris by France's Direction Générale sécurité de la extérieure (DGSE) which has hosted Mahamat Kaka and his Emirati security advisor last October...

After that Minawi went to Nigeria for a lengthy meeting with emissaries of Mahamat Kaka...

These efforts to engineer some kind of rapprochement between the Darfur leaders and Mahamat Kaka suggest that the UAE which is coming under growing pressure behind the scenes may start to rein in its support for Hemeti...

If that happens Mahamat Kaka could lose both his sponsorship from Abu Dhabi and the ability to pay off his opponents...

This may explain why in recent weeks Mahamat Kaka has warmed up relations with France and the United States...

The sacking of Idriss Youssouf Boy (IYB) who headed Mahamat Kaka's office at the presidency seems to be collateral damage for this latest policy shift...

A close friend and confidant of Mahamat Kaka's since childhood IYB's loyalty to the President prompted opponents to nickname him 'Makambo'...

IYB was Mahamat Kaka's private secretary from April 2021 to June 2022...

By dismissing his close ally IYB Mahamat Kaka may want to acknowledge the Zaghawa criticism of his alliance with Abu Dhabi; and that he is not a prisoner of this policy...

Mahamat Kaka might also have wanted to make concessions to those western governments criticising IYB's handling of public finances and involvement in embezzlement and trafficking...

When Mahamat Kaka visited the Elysée Palace in February he was told that IYB was not welcome...

Now in disgrace IYB is being targeted by his foes as responsible for the multiple failures of Mahamat Kaka's rule since 2021...

Should Mahamat Kaka want to play the populist card tilting to an anti-western stance again ahead of the parliamentary elections in December IYB would be a useful apparatchik...

Its leadership claims its neutral and continues to flatter the United Arab Emirates ruling class which thinks it has bought enough petro-dollar influence with President Mahamat Idris Déby Itno's shaky regime in Ndjamena (AC Vol 65 No 2 Mahamat Kaka co-opts Succès in pre-election campaign)...

Mahamat Kaka had mobilised all the resources of the state to win and his many 'bureaux de soutien' – roadside booths distributing cash for votes – spent heavily...

But Masra's electoral meetings in Moundou and Abéché were so successful that he departed from the script imagining that he could poll more votes than Mahamat Kaka – which he probably did – and turn his imaginary contest into a real bid for power...

Once he had been co-opted by Mahamat Kaka and appointed prime minister on 1 January – and especially after the murder on 28 February of Yaya Dillo Djérou who had helped him flee the country in October 2022 – he had nothing bad to say about the obviously manipulated electoral institutions until late in the campaign...

This was enough to scare Mahamat Kaka and ANGE excluded most of the 2 900 election monitors trained by the EU...

Mahamat Kaka acted quickly...

At no point did he call for the release of over 80 members of his Les Transformateurs party who were arrested after trying to act as observers at the count let alone doubt the legitimacy of ANGE or the Constitutional Court whose members had been appointed by Mahamat Kaka...

Mahamat Kaka's father used we hear to demand to see the genuine voting figures despite announcing the results he had decided on...

It is further evidence that Mahamat Kaka values familiarity and the comfort of his entourage to real-world skills...

Most say the result will be manipulated to reflect the desires of Kaka just as the constitutional referendum was (Dispatches 20/12/23 Mahamat Déby's new constitution will reinforce central control)...

Questions will then be asked of Chad's leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno 'Kaka' about his commitment to solidarity with his Zaghawa people on the Sudanese side of the border (AC Vol 65 No 2 Mahamat Kaka co-opts Succès in pre-election campaign)...