The decisive victory for Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro with 64% in the 13 November presidential elections should be seen as the culmination of two years of politicking during which the incumbent Muse Bihi Abdi tried to delay and manipulate the constitutional process at the expense of his Isaq and non-Isaq opposition...

In parts of Somaliland where many inhabitants want their future to be as part of a federal Somalia polling stations and voters were conspicuously absent (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

Muse Bihi's defeat is not a surprise though his 34% vote share is much lower than many expected...

That's not because the recognition of Somaliland is impossible but Muse Bihi should not have begged for it from his closest ally...

This prospect was eagerly seized by Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi who celebrated the breakthrough...

Any humiliation of Abiy may boost military support for Hargeisa particularly as Muse Bihi is planning operations against Las Anood and Eerigaavo to re-establish some form of Isaaq unity before the November elections...

Supposedly the government allowed the attack to take place to improve its bargaining position in talks over what security force will take over from the African Transition Mission in Somalia when it leaves in December (ATMIS – AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

Nobody yet knows whether the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of the breakaway state of Somaliland is any more than a ‘memorandum of misunderstanding'...

We hear that Muse Bihi emboldened by his alliance with Addis Ababa is planning further violence in Somaliland to extend his hegemony and quell internal dissent...

Unable to bank on Addis's endorsement of Somaliland independence Muse Bihi and his supporters are concentrating on the military alliance with his powerful neighbour...

About 4 000 Somaliland troops are being trained in Ethiopia according to witnesses in the border town of Tug Wajale and there is widespread talk in Hargeisa that ‘order' will be restored in Awdal the western part of Somaliland on the border with Djibouti where dissent against Muse Bihi has grown over the last decade...

Somaliland troops have often trained in Ethiopia but the current high numbers raise concern that Muse Bihi may want a new offensive aimed at recovering ground lost to the new Sool Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) regional administration in the last year (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

Muse Bihi may calculated that a blitzkrieg in the east could restore confidence in him among members of the Isaq clan...

They see Muse Bihi's military presence in Awdal state growing as the former Somaliland president and Gadabursi elder Dahir Riyale Kahin has been unable to curb dissidents and rebuild a consensus in his clan in favour of the Somaliland nationhood project (AC Vol 43 No 10 Separate & sovereign)...

Following a failed meeting with Muse Bihi and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of the Somali Federal Government in December President Guelleh (who is Iise/Mamasan) and his wife Khadra Mahamud Haid (who is Sa'ad Muuse/Haber Awal) tried to reconcile the two men and prevent Djibouti being fought over (AC Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...

Guelleh and his influential spouse have recently done their best to convince the biggest Isaq traders who have Djibouti nationality to get Muse Bihi to renounce the MoU...

But they claimed to have no leverage with Muse Bihi so Guelleh changed tack and upped the stakes...

The presidential couple is anxious to prevent Muse Bihi's security apparatus brutally intervening in the Iise and Gadabursi town of Borama which is held up as a model of civilised Somali urban living by its champions and felt a tough stand would help...

The two five-person delegations were present but did not meet face-to-face while Turkish diplomats shuttled between them (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

Some analysts see a deeper game and the hand of Ethiopia and its current ally Somaliland in setting up an action designed to discredit Hassan Sheikh possibly as revenge for his opposition to the MoU between Addis and Hargeisa or simply to undermine him politically ahead of the next presidential elections (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...

Regional concerns are mounting over the mooted quid pro quo between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi in which Ethiopia gets a port in the Gulf of Aden in return for recognising the independence of Somaliland which broke away from Somalia in 1991 (AC Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...

It's complicated by the UAE operating behind the scenes to strengthen the hand of Muse Bihi and assert their own strategic interests...

President Muse Bihi is pushing to take maximum advantage – his supporters keep claiming recognition by Addis is imminent – and taking a hard line against the opposition emboldened by the UAE...

Tangled pathThe tortuous road towards the current crisis over Somaliland started on 25 August when the Somaliland army – more precisely its contingents of Haber Awal and Haber Je'elo clan fighters – suffered a humiliating defeat when their military base near Las Anod was overrun by militias of the Dhulbahante clan (AC Vol 64 No 19 Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen)...

One result of that was that Muse Bihi was forced to accept an election plan that Haber Je'elo elders had proposed as part of a mediation effort between the two sides...

But the signing of the MoU with Ethiopia and the promise of recognition for Somaliland gave Muse Bihi new options...

Meanwhile Muse Bihi wanted to strengthen his hand by taking charge of the parliamentary elections which have relatively high credibility in the region...

Muse Bihi wants no donor funding for the poll because his opponents say it would come with monitoring and oversight that would interfere with Muse Bihi's rigging of the poll...

Backing this strong enables Muse Bihi to hang tough...

The bitterness and aggressiveness of Muse Bihi's rhetoric also serve to pressure Abiy to act against international advice and go through with the recognition of Somaliland...

Muse Bihi's supporters are continually announcing Addis's imminent recognition of Somaliland – originally intended for Somaliland's unofficial independence day of 26 June – and then pushing the date back...

According to our sources Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland deliberately spread a rumour on X and other social platforms that Ethiopia would formally recognise Somaliland on 1 July as a way of putting pressure on the negotiators at the Istanbul meeting the day before...

We hear that after annoying Hassan Sheikh by taking visits from President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland and Puntland's President Said Abdullahi Dani he will invite South West State's President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed 'Lafta Gareen' to the Ethiopian capital...

Meanwhile significant elements in the Puntland army especially the Dervish (Darawish) flocked to help the Dhulbuhante in Las Anod defend themselves against Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi's forces in heavy fighting last year (AC Vol 64 No 8 Risks of Las Anod lull)...