One highly positive development is the accord signed in Ankara between Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud brokered personally by Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in December which has calmed the crisis (AC Vol 65 No 14 Abiy Ahmed's sovereignty deal with Muse Abdi risks more regional turmoil)...
Abiy Ahmed had no real choice but to comply having been isolated by the international community on the question of the indivisibility of Somalia...
In mid-December Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan brokered a deal between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia...
DISPATCHES
In a statement following talks on 11 December between Hassan Sheikh and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the leaders ‘reaffirmed their respect and commitment to one another's sovereignty unity independence and territorial integrity'...
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He used Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's questionable commitment as a threat to dissidents a tool against rivals and an argument for his re-election...
Yet Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed insisted in late October that he would pursue access to a port via ‘peaceful means' (Dispatches 6/11/24 Abiy plays down threat of conflict over Red Sea access)...
DISPATCHES
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's remarks to the Ethiopian parliament last week that his government was seeking access to the Red Sea ‘through peaceful means' could mark a critical de-escalation in a dispute which has been becoming increasingly heated...
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Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed suggested reform of the UN Security Council...
That was triggered by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's trade-off announced on New Year's Day: Ethiopia would recognise the ‘territorial integrity' of Somaliland which broke away from Somalia in 1991 in exchange for a lease on 20 kilometres of coast in the Gulf of Aden (AC Vol 65 No 1 Reality catches up with gambler Abiy & Vol 65 No 2 Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding')...
Beyond countering Abiy Ahmed Cairo wanted to reinforce its regional position in the Horn...
He wanted to build an arc of opposition against Abiy Ahmed even if the defence pacts would not be fully implemented...
It pushed for mediation although there was no sign that Addis Ababa was interested in solving the problem that Abiy Ahmed had created...
Abiy Ahmed wrongly calculated that Hassan Sheikh would not challenge Ethiopia's role in Somalia...
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4 billion IMF extended credit facility (ECF) Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration has a fighting chance to return the national finances to debt sustainability and raise living standards...
Senior party members told Africa Confidential they had received assurances from no less than Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that this would happen...
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's grand plan to raise over US$10 billion from international financial institutions and the restructuring of Ethiopia's $28bn foreign debt after defaulting on its Eurobond last December will be critically tested over the next six months amid mounting turmoil in the region...