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Libya

Corruption and power struggles plague recovery plan

Pic: @NOC_Libya
Pic: @NOC_Libya

Militia leaders and their political allies continue to siphon oil revenues, overriding timid reform attempts

Oil production, the lifeblood of Libya’s economy, is nearing 1.4 million barrels a day; a substantial hike but still 200,000 b/d below target. Political manoeuvring and rampant corruption in the industry are hindering a broader recovery, inflicting hardship on citizens across the country. Despite serial development plans and international trade agreements, the country’s political institutions remain fractured between the misnamed Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the House of Representatives in Benghazi and closed to outsiders.


Hemeti struggles to launch in Nairobi, again

Heads of State and Government Meeting on the crises in Sudan and the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Addis Ababa, February 2025. Pic: @MusaliaMudavadi
Heads of State and Government Meeting on the crises in Sudan and the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Addis Ababa, February 2025. Pic: @MusaliaMudavadi

As its ties strengthen with the United Arab Emirates, President Ruto’s government is helping Sudan’s RSF militia

Kenyan diplomats and the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al Burhan have waded into a new diplomatic row over plans by his rival General Mohamed...


Gold is booming amid the geopolitical chaos

Africa's mineral reserves. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Africa's mineral reserves. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Political and economic risks are holding back countries hoping to benefit from a critical minerals boom

Africa’s gold miners, great and small, are reaping benefits from the mounting geopolitical chaos. The gold price, which surged 20% in 2024 due to escalating political risks, has...

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The generals choose partition over peace

SUDAN: THE THREAT OF PARTITION The SAF consolidates in the Eastern Nile while the RSF dominates Darfur. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
SUDAN: THE THREAT OF PARTITION The SAF consolidates in the Eastern Nile while the RSF dominates Darfur. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

General Burhan’s SAF has won back the eastern and central lands taken by the RSF but a deadly stalemate persists

The battle for control of Khartoum is raging. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al Burhan is fighting for control of what is left...


Tanks roll as Mnangagwa tries to extend his rule

Borrowdale Road, 19 February 2025. Pic: @maz_mai
Borrowdale Road, 19 February 2025. Pic: @maz_mai

The military officers who backed the coup against Mugabe are turning against his successor

On the morning of 19 February, Zimbabweans awoke to find videos on their social media feed of tanks rolling down the Borrowdale Road, in one of the plushest...


Ncube’s great expectations thwarted

ZIMBABWE: Growth rebounding, but new currency struggling. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
ZIMBABWE: Growth rebounding, but new currency struggling. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

High ambition has not been matched by progress on debt negotiations, as discussions with the IMF drag on

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube’s plan for an IMF deal paving the way for debt restructuring is being frustrated. Following a two-week mission to Harare that concluded on 13...


Making enemies of the press

Pic: @NationMediaGrp
Pic: @NationMediaGrp

The country’s leading media group faces financial struggles and competition from social platforms, while foreign outlets expand in Nairobi

A highly competitive and – by the region’s standards – vibrant media culture is among the legacies of Nation Media Group (NMG) founder and owner, Prince Shah Karim...


Targeting the cost of capital

Pic: @_AfricanUnion
Pic: @_AfricanUnion

A continent-wide risk assessor is taking on the big three rating agencies to counter the ‘Africa risk premium’

On the fringes of the African Union (AU) summit on 14 February, leaders announced the launch of the African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) planned for June to counter...


As Kinshasa fumes, Kigali plots its next move

THE CONGO-KINSHASA CRISIS:  How the M23 and the Rwanda Defence Force took  over the Kivu provinces. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Paul Kagame arrives in Dar es Salaam for a joint summit on the security situation in eastern DRC. Pic: @UrugwiroVillage

Regional officials seem resigned to Rwandan control over swathes of eastern Congo as the price of a ceasefire

Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame is moving pieces at will around the regional chessboard in this deadliest of tournaments. His putative opponent in Kinshasa, President Félix Tshisekedi, is flailing,...


Freetown falls out with the Hague over cocaine

Jos Leijdekkers
Jos Leijdekkers

A diplomatic row is brewing after the revelations about Jos Leijdekkers’s drugs empire

Top officials in Freetown have expressed annoyance at the time it took the Dutch government to apply for the extradition of convicted cocaine smuggler Jos Leijdekkers, despite telling...


Pan-Africanism is on the ballot

Pic: @_AfricanUnion
Pic: @_AfricanUnion

Governments meeting in Addis Ababa and Abidjan will elect the continent’s new diplomatic and economic chiefs

Despite its lofty ambitions, the African Union continues to punch well below its weight, reliant on foreign donors to finance the bulk of its budget and hamstrung by...


Kinshasa cries foul on Arsenal FC

Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Lord Collins of Highbury, Accra, January 2025. Pic @kayikwambaT
Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Lord Collins of Highbury, Accra, January 2025. Pic @kayikwambaT

Foreign minister Wagner quietly dropped in to London to undermine Rwanda’s sponsorship deal with a football club known for its prominent Labour supporters

Congo-Kinshasa Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner took a quiet detour to London on 9-11 February to persuade influential football fans to pressure President Paul Kagame to pull his...


Embaló seizes total power

Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB
Umaro Sissoco Embaló. Pic: @Presidencia_GB

With his close ally General Biaguê, the President has all but destroyed the country’s democracy within five years

Tensions are rising between President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition groupings over the date he is due to leave office. Embaló insists it is 4 September – that...


Innovation delusion

Maxwell Chikumbutso briefs the President
Maxwell Chikumbutso briefs the President

On 28 January, President Emmerson Mnangagwa hosted ‘inventor’ Maxwell Chikumbutso at State House to demonstrate a ‘self-powering vehicle’. At the event, covered by state media and widely publicised...


Rivals tussle for Benin Bronzes

Pic: @mowaaofficial
Pic: @mowaaofficial

The opening of the Museum of West African Art (MOWAA) in Edo State’s Benin City won plaudits. But few noticed the absence of the objects it was designed...


Playing the numbers game

2nd Bi-Annual Meeting of the National Consultative Committee on Statistics (NCCS), November 2024. Pic: National Bureau of Statistics


Still the kingmaker

Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga
Raila Odinga. Pic: @RailaOdinga

The coalition building ahead of 2027 may be shaped by Raila Odinga’s fate in the AU elections in Addis Ababa in mid-February