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Growth is still chasing demographics

Africa economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Africa economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Inflation is falling but capital is scarce and a host of climate and trade disruptors hold back progress

Africa is set for faster growth and lower inflation this year – and the World Bank has upgraded growth projections for 2025 and 2026 – partly due to improved growth prospects in the bigger economies like South Africa and Angola. Most importantly, in many countries on the continent, economic growth lags in per capita GDP and incomes compared to industrial economies and other developing regions. And the continent’s annual growth projections are rarely met.

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America first but Africa where?

Pic: @WhiteHouse
Pic: @WhiteHouse

Deal-making diplomacy and geopolitical rivalry with China will dominate Washington’s policy in Africa

Many African leaders believe they can do business with new US President Donald Trump despite his previous lack of interest in the continent. A chorus of congratulatory messages...


Realpolitik and angry neighbours

Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN
Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita meets Algerian Minister of Justice Abderrachid Tebbi, emissary of President Abdelmajid Tebboune, Rabat, September 2022. Pic: @Marocdiplo_EN

The Maghreb’s sparring giants vie for influence as the Western Sahara stand-off dominates regional ties

With no sign of a thaw in the cold war between Algeria and Morocco, the Maghreb region will remain gripped by their stand-off and the Western Sahara dispute....


Kaka beset on all sides

Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Chad economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Having struck out on his own, the President looks ill-equipped to meet the domestic political and foreign security challenges and faces major risks

Two momentous decisions at the end of 2024 govern prospects for the regime in the year to come: the expulsion of France’s military and President Mahamat Déby Itno...


Tshisekedi eyes a third term

Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Congo-K economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Amid the security crisis in the Kivu provinces and geopolitical jockeying for Congo’s critical minerals, the President prioritises a constitutional change

Two key issues confront President Félix Tshisekedi in 2025 – to harness the spiralling global demand for the country’s cornucopia of critical minerals and to end the deepening...


Unity preserved but security lost

Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Somalia economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The damage caused by Ethiopia’s MoU has receded but political prospects are poor and morale in the national security forces is at rock bottom

If there are prospects for an upturn in 2025, it’s only because security, morale and international coherence could hardly have been worse in 2024. Ethiopia fractured the international...


Facing the costs of Nyusi’s inheritance

Mozambique economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Mozambique economy chart. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo has been sworn in as president but inherits an economy ravaged by corruption and post-election protests

Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) took the presidential oath on 15 January, but post-election protests have cast serious doubt over how effectively...


The country looks north as the party goes south

Cyril Ramaphosa in Davos, January 2025. Pic: @PresidencyZA
Cyril Ramaphosa in Davos, January 2025. Pic: @PresidencyZA

A fresh bout of optimism about the prospects for economic recovery isn’t helping the venerable ANC

From key note addresses to international investor conferences, nation-boosting speeches to the UN General Assembly to grassroots rallies in the township, President Cyril Ramaphosa knows how to tailor...


Sahel’s juntas challenge western miners in geopolitical gold rush

General Abdourahamane Tiani, Gen Assimi Goïta and Captain Ibrahim Traoré July 2024. Pic: @GoitaAssimi
General Abdourahamane Tiani, Gen Assimi Goïta and Captain Ibrahim Traoré July 2024. Pic: @GoitaAssimi

The fight over one of the world’s biggest gold mines points to the changing balance of power in the region

The stand-off between General Assimi Goïta’s military regime and Canada’s Barrick Gold has reached a critical point with the mining conglomerate suspending work at the Loulou-Gounkoto complex after...


Washington’s sanctions block Hemeti’s war message

General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and President William Ruto, January 2024. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemeti’ and President William Ruto, January 2024. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Torn between ties to the US and the UAE, Kenyan officials banned a press conference by the RSF militia in Nairobi

The last-minute cancellation of a press conference in Nairobi on 13 January by senior officials in the Rapid Support Forces suggests that its commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo...


Ambazonia bets on Trump

Ambazonia flag. Pic: Nataliia / stock.adobe.com
Ambazonia flag. Pic: Nataliia / stock.adobe.com

The Ambazonia Governing Council (AGovC) has emerged as the latest African separatist movement to stake its hopes on a second Donald Trump presidency recognising its independence from Cameroon...


Policy and leadership change top the AU agenda

Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com
Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com

More wars are being fought on the continent than at any point in the last eighty years

When they arrive in Addis Ababa for the African Union summit in February, African leaders will have to make some stark choices as they step-up efforts to tackle...

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Merger or bust for the opposition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The challenge is clear – form an alliance or risk leaving President Tinubu as the frontrunner in the 2027 elections

With electioneering expected to start in 2026, this year will test the opposition’s resolve to form a mega party that could unseat President Bola Tinubu and his All...


Mahama may struggle to walk the talk

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan

On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to...

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Ruto prioritises coalition-building as his re-election ticket

William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto
William Ruto signing parliamentary bills, December 2024. With John Mbadi, Musalia Mudavadi and others. Pic: @WilliamsRuto

Six months after the Gen Z protests forced him to sack his cabinet and drop a finance bill, the President wants to befriend old rivals

After a year of turmoil when he appeared to be in office but not in power, President William Ruto wants to focus on building a new coalition to...


Mnangagwa hunkers down

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The president’s failure to rein in grand corruption and his business allies is weakening the economy further and makes a political implosion more likely


Abiy soldiers on

Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahayan and Abiy Ahmed at the BRICS Summit 2024. Pic: @AbiyAhmedAli

Despite regional setbacks and domestic insurgencies, the Prime Minister is set to pursue his vision of a modernised Ethiopia using military means


The Sahel-exit splits open Ecowas

Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao
Ecowas sixty-sixth ordinary session, 15 December 2024, Abuja, Nigeria. Pic: @ecowas_cedeao

Nigeria’s Tinubu presides over the regional bloc’s worst ever crisis