President Muse Bihi Abdi is adding political problems to the military reverses he has suffered in his ill-judged confrontation with the Dhulbahante clan over Las Anod...

Instead of staying out of the internal arguments of the Dhulbahante Muse Bihi launched a furious armed assault late last year following up with indiscriminate shelling and the repercussions are multiplying (AC Vol 64 No 4 Hargeisa's bloody own goal & Vol 64 No 6 Uneasy peace at Las Anod)...

Even worse from Muse Bihi's point of view they are now promoting the creation of a new Somali federal member state Khatumo-SSC (Sool Sanaag and Cayn)...

To add insult to injury the SSC militias defending Las Anod went over to the offensive on 25 August and overran Muse Bihi's military base at Gojade the launching point for his offensives seizing trucks artillery pieces and masses of ammunition in a major humiliation for Somaliland's leader...

Such extreme propaganda which is not supported by any evidence only has traction with the few Isaq including Muse Bihi who blame the Dhulbahante for supporting former dictator President Siad Barre's 1987-1989 scorched earth policy in Somaliland dubbed the 'Isaq genocide' when tens of thousands of civilians were murdered and Hargeisa and Burao all but razed to the ground...

Low key supportMuse Bihi's hardline stance has drawn in other parties...

But Muse Bihi's military problems have been feeding into his political woes...

This new timeline although endorsed by the Gurti the upper house of the Somaliland Parliament was a major bone of contention with the international community and Muse Bihi's opponents...

But events on the ground became too serious and Muse Bihi suddenly had to compromise as the military confrontation shifted from a fight with the Dhulbahante or Darod to struggle within the Isaq who are the backbone of the Somaliland independence idea (see Box Angry youth head for the hills)...

Consequently in late August Muse Bihi decided to reschedule the selection of the political parties to take place at the same time as the presidential elections in November 2024...

Angry youth head for the hills Although only a skirmish compared to the battle over Las Anod a revolt by young Habr Yunis fighters is occupying much more of the attention of Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi...

They blame not only the Habr Awal – the influential sub-clan of the Isaq to which Muse Bihi belongs – but also another Isaq sub-clan the Habr Je'lo with whom they have territorial disputes and increasingly political ones...

Muse Bihi sent a police unit to deal with the new band of rebels but it was ambushed with nine dead and 17 wounded...

What bothers Muse Bihi about all this is the crack in the façade of Isaq unity which has been the backbone of the Somaliland project for 30 years not the negligible military threat...

Muse Bihi's allies the Habr Ja'lo are clashing with Dhulbahante and Habr Yunis increasingly frequently...

In the wake of Muse Bihi's loss of the Gojade military base and this rebellion he needs Isaq to unite behind him...

He has embarked on a course of compromise to achieve this but the rebels in the hills say they won't consider altering their position until Muse Bihi is out of office...

International pressure on President Muse Bihi Abdi was strong enough eventually to result in a late March phone conversation with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud which was followed by the assembling of a mediation team of clan elders in Mogadishu...

Muse Bihi welcomed the appointment which was criticised in Garowe but what Abdikarim Hussein will propose is unclear...

Muse Bihi is in no hurry...

For now like Muse Bihi he needs to buy time local analysts say...

All sides agree that taking the town would be a Pyrrhic victory for President Muse Bihi Abdi because of the immense human cost it would entail...

But Muse Bihi may be leaving them no choice but to retaliate as he openly blames them for interfering...

The latest round of fighting underlines Muse Bihi's intransigence...

They treasure the self-government they have long enjoyed and the clan is torn between those who want to express solidarity with Las Anod and those who fear that this would draw Muse Bihi's anger on their heads...

Their silence hitherto indicates they are unwilling to risk all this which gives Muse Bihi an advantage...

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is believed instinctively to side with those opposing Muse Bihi but a military intervention is out of the question and economic sanctions could hurt Ethiopia as much as Hargeisa...

Oblivious to the concerns of western countries and interested neighbours President Muse Bihi Abdi of Somaliland has now listened to envoys of Ethiopia and called off the all-out assault on the town of Las Anod which had earlier declared its desire to become a Federal Member State within the federation of Somalia (AC Vol 64 No 4 Hargeisa's bloody own goal)...

But fighting could break out again at any time since Muse Bihi has not softened his hard line against the would-be breakaway local sources say...

Muse Bihi's violent reaction to Las Anod's declaration saw his forces bombarding the town of 160 000 causing many deaths at least 150 000 internal refugees (including neighbouring villages) and massive destruction of the town's infrastructure (AC Vol 64 No 5 Las Anod still under fire)...

On 27 February three senior Ethiopian military officers arrived in Hargeisa for talks with Muse Bihi before going to Garowe capital of neighbouring Puntland to meet Las Anod's committee of 33 which had been appointed to speak for the town in negotiations as well as 13 leading figures of the Dhulbahante clan...

Muse Bihi is seen locally as the driver of the violence...

Pundits say Muse Bihi is blaming outsiders for the failure of his policy towards the Dhulbahante...

Muse Bihi has supported the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the past...

Blaming outsiders is helpful to Muse Bihi when countering the argument that he has damaged the Somaliland independence cause by inflicting disproportionate violence on Las Anod his opponents say...

In Burco a stronghold of the Somaliland opposition Waddani party about halfway between Las Anod and Hargeisa the Las Anod fighting is being used as evidence of the illegitimacy of Muse Bihi's presidency...

Waddani argues that Muse Bihi's extension of his presidency is illegitimate and wants a new election...

Muse Bihi has acted to forestall any further splits in Isaq unity...

The effect however is likely to polarise further the debate among the Isaq and weaken Muse Bihi's position in Hargeisa...

Staying outAs Ramadan approaches and with it the usual decline in political activity the 'outsiders' Muse Bihi is blaming for unrest in Somaliland – especially Puntland and the federal government in Mogadishu – have little stomach for it...

Local opinion blames President Muse Bihi Abdi whose is personally driving the offensive for obscure reasons...

Muse Bihi's policy is dividing the Isaq his own clan and the dominant group in Somaliland and its government we hear and one major Isaq sub-clan has publicly come out against his policy...

The second alleged Al Shabaab leader Jama Kutiye was convicted in 2003 of the murder of two British teachers and released in 2021 as a humanitarian gesture President Muse Bihi Abdi said at the time...

Possibly conscious that blaming Al Shabaab is not working Muse Bihi also claims that Puntland and Federal Government forces are fighting in Las Anod...

President Abdi Muse Bihi did not rein in the soldiers or apologise for their actions...

President Muse Bihi seems unperturbed but he faces tricky choices...

President Muse Bihi Abdi in Somaliland is using chauvinist tactics to prevail over his domestic opposition through claiming territory 'historically' part of Somaliland which necessarily means provoking Mogadishu which does not agree (AC Vol 63 No 12 Hassan Sheikh takes Mogadishu by storm)...

To keep his domestic political ploy working Muse Bihi will have to maintain a posture of hostility to Mogadishu and avoid responding to pressure from donors for conciliation at least until after the elections planned for late 2024...

President Muse Bihi Abdi looks to be succeeding in his campaign to neutralise the opposition and consolidate the extension of his own presidential term by two years regardless of the cost to his vaunted reputation for democracy (AC Vol 63 No 21 Clans take the fight to Al Shabaab)...

Muse Bihi is undermining the opposition by every means short of coercion...

Mahamed Abdi Gaboose for instance left politics in April 2021 to focus on his Haldoor private hospital but has come back in alliance with Muse Bihi...

In May Muse Bihi funded Mahamed Abdi's political association Barwaaqo ('Prosperity') whose purpose is to contest Abdirahman Mahamed Abdullahi Irro leader of Waddani party and one of the nine political associations...

Muse Bihi is also bidding for popularity by launching a military campaign to take over the Dhulbahante city of Boo'ame in Sool less than 70 kilometres from the Puntland capital of Garowe feeding domestic nationalistic sentiment and making it hard for the opposition to contest...