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Published 19th December 2003

Vol 44 No 25


Nigeria

Reforms, risks and rumblings

New opponents are lurking in the shadows as President Obasanjo tries to change course

'Everything is in place,' the tall man in babariga assured his audience in a Kaduna street. 'In place for what?' came the reply. 'Regime change of course!' the tall man smirked. Such stories openly predicting, even hoping for a military coup are now common, especially in the north. How seriously should they be taken? Very, to judge by President Olusegun Obasanjo's new securocracy. Since returning to power as civilian President in 1999, Obasanjo has overhauled the military, dismissing any officers who had held political postings in the military regimes led by Generals Sani Abacha, Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari. And he has installed a new cadre of military intelligence officers drawn primarily from his own Yoruba people of south-western Nigeria. His National Security Advisor and former director of military intelligence, Major Gen. Aliyu Gusau, is a formidable security networker and an old friend of Nigeria's veteran putschist, Gen. Babangida. Obasanjo and his fellow military veterans know there are limits to their impregnability. The arrest of three ex-ministers on corruption charges linked to the failed national identity card project has raised the stakes in Obasanjo's anti-corruption war. It follows a searching probe into corruption at the now defunct Nigeria Airways. Obasanjo's supporters fear that political opposition to his new government and reforms being pushed by technocrats, such as Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Federal Capital Territory Minister Nassir el-Rufai, are chipping away at powerful vested interests; in their place, new business interests are emerging, closer to Obasanjo.


The cost of Mugabe

Poor diplomacy allows the Zimbabwe row to weaken the Commonwealth and divide Africa

Like a slow-motion train crash, from 5 to 8 December Commonwealth leaders allowed a bad-tempered discussion on Zimbabwe to dominate their summit, ending in the continuation of sanctions...


No change there, then

Ill and politically incoherent, President Conté keeps going by eliminating all opposition

With a presidential election looming on 21 December, Guinea's military high command has banned soldiers from carrying arms in the Samory Touré barracks ­ where President Lansana Conté...


The language of weapons

A sick President and armed uprisings threaten attempts to share out the oil more fairly

Armed opposition is on the rise again, as anti-government militias train in Sudan and politicians grow restless in N'djamena. The unrest puts at risk not only the ailing...


Dead men tell tales

Ibn Omer Youssef Idriss, a Sudanese businessman, was shot dead at point blank range outside Chad's Foreign Ministry on 25 September. Six weeks later, on 6 November, four...



Pointers

Risky dealings

Military reform and a new national army are key to the South African-led peace efforts (AC Vol 44 No 16). They remain on a knife-edge. Since the 16...


Tension at the top

Greatly strengthened by November's local elections (AC Vol 44 No 24), the Secretary General of Frente de Libertaçao de Moçambique (Frelimo), Armando Guebuza, is preparing to purge the...


Next year in Paris

President Laurent Gbagbo's state visit to France, now rescheduled for sometime in January, will test diplomatic limits on both sides. Gbagbo doesn't want to appear too chummy with...


New Year party

The plan of the governing South West African People's Organisation to divide its opponents ahead of next year's elections is working. The official opposition Democratic Turnhalle Alliance is...