Jump to navigation

Published 24th January 2014

Vol 55 No 2

Making the best of the boom

Harare: People buying and selling fruit and vegetables in Mbare Market. Mikkel Ostergaard / Panos
Harare: People buying and selling fruit and vegetables in Mbare Market. Mikkel Ostergaard / Panos

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

The challenge this year is to convert a decade of faster growth into jobs and higher living standards as political tensions rise in the biggest economies

The International Monetary Fund’s projection that Sub-Saharan Africa’s gross domestic product growth should be over 6% in 2014, compared to average Asian growth of over 5%, is an important marker for the continent. Yet Africa’s growth picture is less cheery if North African economies are added: the deepening political crises in Egypt and Libya are holding back regional growth. Tunisia, where the Arab Awakening politics have been somewhat less traumatic than for its neighbours, is still struggling to recover its momentum. However, China, the world’s second biggest economy, is projected to grow by about 7.5% this year which should mean continuing strong demand for African commodity exports.

READ FOR FREE

Headaches for Benkirane

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

View site

A deteriorating economic situation adds to political tension as parties manoeuvre for next year’s elections

Morocco seems to have emerged stronger from the Arab Spring. The constitution promises a more open political system and improved human rights. A coalition government led by the...

Coup legacy lingers

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

View site

Everyone hoped the elections would heal divisions and allow the country to move on but it may not be that simple

The final election victory of Hery Rajaonarimampianina is unlikely to provide Madagascar with the healing new start that everyone had hoped for. The chronic instability since the March...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Stronger economies and troubled politics sum up the reports in Africa Confidential’s first two issues of the year, which focus on events and developments ahead. The International Monetary Fund still forecasts African growth at over 6% – and mergers and acquisition deals in Africa were up a third to US$30 billion. Amidst the cheerleading for this economic revival, the brightest time since the immediate post-Independence era of the 1960s, bankers and politicians are less worried a...

Stronger economies and troubled politics sum up the reports in Africa Confidential’s first two issues of the year, which focus on events and developments ahead. The International Monetary Fund still forecasts African growth at over 6% – and mergers and acquisition deals in Africa were up a third to US$30 billion. Amidst the cheerleading for this economic revival, the brightest time since the immediate post-Independence era of the 1960s, bankers and politicians are less worried about the medium term or even the tough policy decisions that have to be taken in the short term. Politics and economics intersect again.

Slowly, Africa’s growth story is changing the continent’s international image; it is also prompting many people from the countryside to head for the cities to seek new economic opportunities. Outside the rush to China’s coastal provinces, this flood of migrants to Africa’s cities is probably the world’s biggest population shift.

Unlike Asia, where rural migrants find jobs in an industrialising economy, most of Africa’s migrants end up in the informal economy and frustrated by the lack of services. Although these informal jobs may provide a social safety net, they cannot substitute for a government’s lack of economic strategy, industrial policy and good infrastructure. These new migrants and their eonomic demands will change the nature of urban politics across Africa, in the same way as they did three years ago in North Africa.

Read more

Parties jostle ahead of polls

With national elections due in 2015, the decks are being cleared for action amidst fierce rivalries for the CCM nomination

This is President Jakaya Kikwete’s last year in the presidency. It seems a very long time since he came to office in 2005 amid ringing pledges to fight...

Mid-term blues

The President’s final term of office is half-way through: it is a time of uncertainty, realignment and anxious looks towards the future

The rumour which flashed around Monrovia late last year that President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf had died was a harbinger of unsettled times ahead. As she reaches the midpoint in...

Take me to your leader

The gas bonanza raises the stakes in this year’s elections; Frelimo’s choice for the presidency will show how it wants to run the country

All eyes are on President Armando Guebuza’s next move in the run-up to the general elections on 15 October. Unable to stand himself, he is determined to have...

The statelets of the nation

Mogadishu will gain little more control and the enclaves will jealously hang on to what they have. Al Shabaab will endure

The New Year began with a new Prime Minister, Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed Mohamed, and a newish cabinet – but no new brooms. Reshuffling the players in cabinet will...

Rising up against Compaoré

Mass demonstrations and party defections signal that 26 years of Compaoré are enough for many people in Burkina but will it be enough to unseat him?

Tens – the opposition says hundreds – of thousands of people took to the streets of the capital and other towns over the weekend in the biggest protests...

Risky hunt for a new leader

The search is on for an interim president but so far allies of the ousted Bozizé and his corrupt former ministers are making all the running

Politicians allied to the discredited former President François Bozizé, along with ministers most associated with rampant corruption, may end up as the main beneficiaries of the power vacuum...

Après moi, moi

Despite his infirmity, Bouteflika is set to run again in April for a fourth term. The ruling elite is bereft of political or economic ideas

Inconceivable though it seemed only a few months ago that the enfeebled, 76-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika could stand again after his stroke, that is exactly what he is...

Abdel Aziz plays it safe

The President will hold the political ring while coopting minor politicians and parties, but he’s keeping out of the regional operation in Mali

Although the ruling Union pour la République suffered setbacks in some smaller regions in last year’s general election, it has consolidated its grip and still monopolises the political...

Geingob at last

In November, veteran SWAPO leader Hage Geingob will take over one of Africa’s most stable political systems

Under outgoing President Hifikepunye Pohamba and the Prime Minister and president-to-be, Hage Geingob, the governing SWAPO Party approaches November’s general elections more united than ever. Geingob, 73, looks...

An early test

Local elections will show whether Macky Sall’s party can stand on its own. He must deliver on his promises to improve water and power supplies

Scheduled for 29 June, the local elections will be the first popularity test for President Macky Sall’s government since his election in March 2012. The mayor’s job is...

Poll shock alarms ANC

Anger over broken promises is slashing the party’s once unassailable lead. With elections at most six months away, the opposition is more hopeful than ever

The governing African National Congress is seeing a sharp decline in support in recent opinion polls, less than six months before legislative and local elections. South Africans...

Long shadow of 2011

The parties prepare for next year’s elections amid strong economic growth but a disquieting inability to move on from the past

Côte d’Ivoire will enjoy robust economic growth in 2014, although against a background of political conflict rooted in the lingering divisions of the post-election crisis of 2010-11. Two...

Reform gives way to politics

Convening Parliament might take debate off the streets but it won’t heal divisions. A weak metals markets will delay resolution of mining disputes

Guinea completed the transition to democracy late last year, when it confirmed its first elected National Assembly in over a decade (AC Vol 54 No 21, Troubled polls...

Full steam ahead

President Ian Khama Seretse Khama and the governing Botswana Democratic Party will romp home in October’s general elections. Disquiet over Lieutenant General Khama’s autocratic leadership style, secretive business...

Serval’s birthday evokes mixed emotions

Bamako held a parade to mark the first anniversary of the French intervention. Admiration, pride and suspicion were also on display, as a new military pact takes shape

French Defence Minister Jean-Yves le Drian was the most notable guest at the ceremony on 20 January to mark the 53rd anniversary of the national armed forces, the...

Murder in the Michelangelo

The killing of a political opponent to President Kagame in a Sandton hotel has riled Pretoria and could have wider consequences

The arrest in Mozambique of three Rwandans this week in connection with the murder in South Africa of Colonel Patrick Karegeya, Rwanda's opposition leader and former spy chief,...

Stories by country

Footer Map