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Published 19th January 2007

Vol 48 No 2


Somalia

Peace but no keepers

To survive, the new government must widen its support base and bid farewell to Ethiopia's soldiers

African Union leaders will meet in Addis Ababa on 22-24 January to discuss sending 8,000 peacekeepers to Somalia. Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi said that an AU force will start deploying by the end of January, as Ethiopia starts pulling out the 5,000 troops who keep the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in power. Negotiations are moving painfully slowly and there is much scepticism about the willingness of African troops to fill the vacuum left by the Ethiopians. Some of Premier Ali Mohamed's allies talk of extending the Ethiopian stay but that would almost certainly provoke a violent counter reaction, given the strength of Somali nationalism and historical enmities with Ethiopia.


Marching across the border

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

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Ethiopia was always confident of an easy victory over the Supreme Islamic Courts Council, despite the SICC's support from international Islamist volunteers and Eritrea. Addis Ababa had planned...


Tafidan's ghost

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

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The three main candidates in April's presidential elections all have close ties to Katsina's late kingmaker Shehu Musa Yar'Adua

General Shehu Musa Yar'Adua's shadow looms large over Nigeria's April presidential elections. Soldier-turned-politician Yar'Adua died in gaol nine years ago on trumped up charges of coup-plotting against the...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The investigations by Britain’s Serious Fraud Office into the international dealings of the country’s biggest arms producer, BAE Systems, have huge implications for Africa’s own corruption busters. Most of them face heavy political pressure at home and depend critically on cooperation from Western police to pursue investigations against multinational companies. The anti-corruption rhetoric of Western governments is belied by their actions. The British government’s termination on grounds of nati...
The investigations by Britain’s Serious Fraud Office into the international dealings of the country’s biggest arms producer, BAE Systems, have huge implications for Africa’s own corruption busters. Most of them face heavy political pressure at home and depend critically on cooperation from Western police to pursue investigations against multinational companies. The anti-corruption rhetoric of Western governments is belied by their actions. The British government’s termination on grounds of national interest of the SFO’s investigation into BAE’s Al Yamamah arms contract with Saudi Arabia has undermined the credibility of commitments on anti-corruption measures. Africa provides two immediate tests of Whitehall’s resolve: the SFO is probing allegations of corrupt payments by BAE on Tanzania’s US$40 mn. radar system and on a $2.6 bn. contract to supply Hawk jets to South Africa (AC Vol 44 No 18). Politically-connected middlemen are accused of handling some $12 mn. on the Tanzania deal and more than $80 mn. in South Africa. Neither Whitehall nor officials in Dar es Salaam or Tshwane have yet shown any enthusiasm for the probe, which could embarrass politicians in all three capitals. But this time the investigators are unlikely to give up.
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New Year election blues

The three main parties all have their candidates, with Vice-President Atiku Abubakar the last to take a running mate in the shape of former Anambra State Deputy Governor,...


Bailing out President Mugabe

Despite its cold war with Whitehall, Harare's biggest financiers are London-based banks and insurance companies

British and South African banks have provided a more than US$400 million financial lifeline to President Robert Mugabe's government over the last two years, much of it targeted...


Enter the capitalists

The World Bank and IMF are bullish about African economic growth in 2007, predicting rates of 5.3% and 5.9% respectively

Africa's economies were buoyed by international conditions, improved domestic policies, increased exports to China and high commodity prices. However, African economies are more sensitive than any others to...


Packaging the peacekeepers

The United Nations-African Union 'hybrid force' consists of two 'packages' - one 'light', one 'heavy' - and is in three phases. Through the UN Mission in Sudan, which...


Breaking the line

After formally accepting UN peacekeepers, Khartoum obstructs their deployment and steps up the war

Khartoum puts much energy into fragmenting the opposition groups and rebel forces, using military pressure and cash to worsen political and ethnic schisms. Significantly, African Union officials are...


South Africa's spat

South Africa, host to the New Partnership for African Development (NePAD) Secretariat and driving force behind the African Peer Review Mechanism, should have run a model assessment, bringing...


How to run a continent

Grand plans for a new African development agency are on the agenda for the AU summit on 22-24 January

Like many, Senegal's President Abdoulaye Wade thinks the African Union's New Partnership for Africa's Development (NePAD) has failed after five years of existence. Wade was at the heart...


Gushing higher

Although oil prices are heading downwards, investors and explorers resolutely talk up Africa's energy prospects

A shakeout in Africa's oil and gas industry is in prospect this year with drilling planned to test new plays from Kenya to Guinea-Bissau, along with a wave...



Pointers

Promised land

Egypt's arrest of a Sudanese attempting to cross into Israel on 17 January points to a new problem for Darfur refugees. Nearly 300 Sudanese have crossed the border...


Who said what to whom?

The latest bizarre political twist is the arrest of three senior executives of the former governing party, the United Democratic Front, whose chairman is ex-President Bakili Muluzi. Three...


Strangers in the night

Two gendarmes and a customs agent dead, a supposed assaillant killed by an angry mob and fears of a wave of new attacks: this is the aftermath of...


Bad moon rising

A general strike launched by two trades unions, the Confédération Nationale des Travilleurs de Guinée and Union Syndicale des Travailleurs de Guinée, on 10 January is threatening President...


Polls postponed

National elections are set for more delays as President José Eduardo dos Santos' government pushes through a new constitution in the interregnum between legislative and presidential polls.