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Published 7th March 2025

Vol 66 No 5

Western aid cuts reshape the geopolitical landscape

INTERNATIONAL AID: After the high point deep cuts are coming. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
INTERNATIONAL AID: After the high point deep cuts are coming. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

As western countries slash aid budgets, China, Turkey and the Gulf States step up the competition for soft power and commercial advantage

The 90-day freeze on almost all United States aid imposed on 20 January by President Donald Trump, together with swingeing cuts in assistance by other rich western economies, will have immediate socio-economic effects and may also drive radical political change in several developing economies as governments struggle to replace the funds and expertise.

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US retreat opens door to Chinese and Russian influence

Pic: christianthiel.net / stock.adobe.com
Pic: christianthiel.net / stock.adobe.com

Trump’s swingeing aid cuts will accelerate decline of US soft power in this heavily contested region

Washington’s 90-day freeze on humanitarian and development programmes is escalating into a full-scale withdrawal undercutting United States’ influence, especially in the Horn of Africa wracked by multiple conflicts...

Tinubu aims for Africa’s top economy slot

NIGERIA GDP: Abuja to claim top economy ranking after rebasing. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
NIGERIA GDP: Abuja to claim top economy ranking after rebasing. Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025.

Officials in Abuja hope the country’s recalculated GDP can help recover its ranking and prove the government’s harsh reforms are working

A full-throated public relations campaign is under way to show that President Bola Tinubu’s reforms are bearing fruit after two troubling years with most Nigerians hit by a...

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THE INSIDE VIEW

The abrupt end of development aid from the United States leaves governments across Africa facing funding shortfalls, particularly for healthcare. Washington spent US$8 billion in aid to Africa last year, most of which will be lost if the three-month freeze continues beyond April. Countries in the EU are also cutting back, while Japan and China say that they will not plug the funding gap.

Some leaders, like former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, have said that the end of USAID and tho...

The abrupt end of development aid from the United States leaves governments across Africa facing funding shortfalls, particularly for healthcare. Washington spent US$8 billion in aid to Africa last year, most of which will be lost if the three-month freeze continues beyond April. Countries in the EU are also cutting back, while Japan and China say that they will not plug the funding gap.

Some leaders, like former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, have said that the end of USAID and thousands of expatriate jobs in the aid industry offers an opportunity for governments to end their aid dependency. That is true in theory. Yet it will mean higher taxes if health and education services are to continue as before. In Kenya, mass protests against a Finance Bill with new taxes to raise several billion dollars led to the storming of parliament last June. Many governments will be nervous of testing how much more their citizens can pay.

The alternative is deep cuts to healthcare, agriculture and education, the main budget lines funded by foreign aid. In South Africa and Kenya, health ministry officials have warned that hundreds of thousands of lives could be lost by 2030 if patients are unable to pay for anti-retroviral medicine. In Kenya, in a bid to account for lost US funding, the health authority has reclassified HIV/AIDS drugs so that they will no longer be subsidised.

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