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Published 10th January 2025

Vol 66 No 1


Policy and leadership change top the AU agenda

Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com
Flag of African Union. Pic: Premium Collection / stock.adobe.com

More wars are being fought on the continent than at any point in the last eighty years

When they arrive in Addis Ababa for the African Union summit in February, African leaders will have to make some stark choices as they step-up efforts to tackle the security crises that are killing tens of thousands of people directly and many more indirectly. The IMF and World Bank have warned that the rising tide of conflict in Africa, especially in Sudan, is holding back regional growth and reversing long-term developmental gains.

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Merger or bust for the opposition

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

The challenge is clear – form an alliance or risk leaving President Tinubu as the frontrunner in the 2027 elections

With electioneering expected to start in 2026, this year will test the opposition’s resolve to form a mega party that could unseat President Bola Tinubu and his All...


Mahama may struggle to walk the talk

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2025

Creditors and party patrons could derail promises to shrink the state and cut taxes while holding back the 24-hour economy plan

On 7 January, thousands of Ghanaians thronged Black Star Square in central Accra for John Dramani Mahama’s ‘second coming’, as many were calling his inauguration and return to...



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THE INSIDE VIEW

Africa’s agenda for 2025

17-18 February – Leaders at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa will choose between Kenya’s Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato to elect the AU Commission Chair.

29 May – Eight candidates are running to replace Akinwumi Adesina as President of the African Development Bank. They include Abbas Mahamat Tolli (Chad), Amadou Hott (Senegal), Bajab...

Africa’s agenda for 2025

17-18 February – Leaders at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa will choose between Kenya’s Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato to elect the AU Commission Chair.

29 May – Eight candidates are running to replace Akinwumi Adesina as President of the African Development Bank. They include Abbas Mahamat Tolli (Chad), Amadou Hott (Senegal), Bajabulile Swazi Tshabalala (South Africa), and Samuel Munzele Maimbo (Zambia).

16 SeptemberMalawi: Lazarus Chakwera faces Peter Mutharika and Joyce Banda in the presidential election.

OctoberCameroon: President Paul Biya wants to stand for an eighth term. Côte d’Ivoire: President Alassane Ouattara may stand for a fourth term, facing Tidjane Thiam, the leader of the PDCI. Tanzania: President Samia Suluhu Hassan is the frontrunner to be elected for a first full term in an election that will be tightly controlled by the CCM-dominated state apparatus. Tundu Lissu is likely to be the candidate of the main opposition Chadema.

22-23 November – South Africa will host the first G20 summit to be held on the African continent. Preliminary meetings of finance ministers start in February.

General elections in Gabon, Seychelles and Central African Republic are due to be held in August, September and December respectively.

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Samia’s liberal dawn is eclipsed

Nobody expects the current wave of repression to end before the election in October because the Magufulistas have recaptured the ruling party

The Tanzanian polity is riven by speculation about how and why the era of reconciliation and openness ushered in by President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been replaced by...


President Tinubu’s oil optimism doesn’t add up, yet

Local companies taking over onshore production and international offshore plays won’t plug the revenue holes

Widespread scepticism greeted President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Budget of Restoration’ when he presented it to the National Assembly on 18 December – mainly due to doubts about the oil...


The Sahel-exit splits open Ecowas

Nigeria’s Tinubu presides over the regional bloc’s worst ever crisis

The break up of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) into two rival blocs is now irreversible. At an emergency summit in Abuja on 15 December,...


Political marriage holds together

Disunity among leftists, trade unionists and the populists of the EFF and MK has weakened opposition to the centrist GNU

Cyril Ramaphosa’s grand political coalition has survived its first six months with modestly rising investment levels, lower inflation, and energy reforms. As the first African country to chair...


Nervy start to election season

An unpredictable battle between ex-presidents looms in September as the last nail is driven into the coffin of the Anti-Corruption Bureau

Malawi’s electoral process got off to an uncertain start as the opposition demanded the resignation of Malawi Electoral Commission chair Judge Annabel Mtalimanja and took to the streets...


Moscow helps Obiang’s dynastic succession plan

Security concerns in Central Africa have brought Presidents Obiang and Putin into a closer embrace

Restive militaries, recurring financial crises and transitions under two ageing authoritarian leaders are pressuring governments in Central Africa. These developments both pose threats and offer opportunities to Russia....


Mnangagwa hunkers down

The president’s failure to rein in grand corruption and his business allies is weakening the economy further and makes a political implosion more likely

The failure to sustain the launch of Zimbabwe’s latest local currency – and the macro-economic consequences of that – will haunt the country and Emmerson Mnangagwa’s presidency in...


Frelimo falters as a people’s uprising gathers steam

Anger is rising as civic activists say police have killed over 130 protestors and the Constitutional Council prepares to rule on disputed election

Mozambique’s police crossed a previously unthinkable line on 14 December when they opened fire on mourners after the funeral of 30-year-old Albino José Sibia, known as ‘Mano Shottas’....

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