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Published 20th October 2022

Vol 63 No 21


Nigeria

Grand corruption wrecks Niger delta clean-up

Pic: UNEP
Pic: UNEP

Theft from the billion-dollar oil clean-up in Ogoniland is so bad that the operation's chief architect, the UN Environment Programme, wants to quit

The UN Environment Programme is set for a bitter break with Nigeria over the clean-up of pipeline spills in the Niger delta despite almost 15 years of close cooperation, Africa Confidential understands. The UN's withdrawal would have grave repercussions because the billion-dollar clean-up plan, financed by western oil companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), was meant to establish a template for environmental remediation in countries across the world where oil production has destroyed farmland and fisheries.


Transport dispute puts brake on economy

Pic: transnet.net
Pic: transnet.net

Big companies are using alternative routes and service providers to keep goods moving after a strike at the state-owned railway and port operator

Dysfunction at the cash-strapped transport behemoth Transnet has forced importers and exporters to bypass the country's ports and trains and resort increasingly to trucking goods. Cargoes, including coal...


Nyusi schemes to stay on

Filipe Nyusi. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)
Filipe Nyusi. Pic: GCIS (CC BY-ND 2.0)

The President is marshalling his political resources for a third term in office, starting with a battle for factional supremacy within the ruling party

President Filipe Nyusi hopes to yoke the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique to his bid to change the constitution so he can have a third term of...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Growth in Africa is slowing this year according to the World Bank and IMF. Much of that seems to have been triggered by the spillover from Russia's war on Ukraine, spiralling food and fuel prices and rising interest rates and debt servicing costs. But there is a growing focus on rising investment levels in Africa.

The Africa Investment Forum in Abidjan in early November is one of several events this year aimed at sealing investment deals. Even so, Africa is likely to fall short of its...

Growth in Africa is slowing this year according to the World Bank and IMF. Much of that seems to have been triggered by the spillover from Russia's war on Ukraine, spiralling food and fuel prices and rising interest rates and debt servicing costs. But there is a growing focus on rising investment levels in Africa.

The Africa Investment Forum in Abidjan in early November is one of several events this year aimed at sealing investment deals. Even so, Africa is likely to fall short of its headline FDI figure, which hit a record US$83 billion in 2021, according to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2022, more than double the amount reported in 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The statistic is somewhat misleading as almost 50% of the increase was due to South Africa's Naspers conglomerate organising a share swap. Elsewhere, energy and extractives projects made up most of the investment: Mozambique and Nigeria benefited and a string of Chinese-funded projects boosted Ethiopia's FDI figures. Across the board, Africa saw an average annual growth of 6.2% in container port traffic, with a slight uptick in agricultural investment.

The uptick in oil and gas investment will continue, as western countries seek alternatives to Russian fossil fuels. But unless the COP27 climate summit in Egypt confounds expectations, investment in green energy will have to wait.

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Banking on the Fund

Worries over the repercussions of a wide-ranging debt restructuring are slowing the government’s negotiations for a $3 billion credit from the IMF

The markets have turned against President Nana Akufo-Addo's New Patriotic Party (NPP) government, pushing up bond yields and eroding the value of the cedi against the dollar by...


Populist Matekane promises reforms

The newly elected Prime Minister vows a reset for Lesotho, but he lacks a majority and must address conflicts of interest

Business mogul Sam Matekane is switching his corporate suit for political office as he takes over as Lesotho's new Prime Minister, and is promising populist changes. But he...


Governments pushed close to the edge

Africa's slowing growth heightens worries on food security, debt service costs, roaring inflation and climate finance

The global downturn will hit Africa's economies harder than any other region according to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund: average growth in Africa is set...


Truss and Ramaphosa try a crisis reset

Dogged by chaos and infighting at home, politicians in Whitehall and Pretoria could both gain from the state visit to London in November

The British and South African governments are both struggling to resolve serial political and economic crises. Against this backdrop, planning a state visit for President Cyril Ramaphosa to...


The hustler backs austerity

After promising ambitious support programmes for small businesses, the new President finds that the fiscal cupboard is bare

President William Ruto's grand, and expensive, promises of a 'bottom up' economy, replete with new financial support for small businesses and farmers, has quickly fallen foul of economic...


Clans take the fight to Al Shabaab

Deadly food shortages and Al Shabaab's punitive taxes are driving clan leaders to fight the Islamist militia 'to the death', radically changing the balance of forces in the civil war

International aid agencies, distracted by Russia's war in Ukraine, are struggling to send food and medicines to alleviate famine conditions threatening nearly half of Somalia's 17 million people...



Pointers

The middle class heads north

Patterns in migration from Tunisia have been changing over the past year as part of a 'surge' in informal migration, according to recent research. Previously informal migration was...


New King Coal

The global energy crisis has gifted Botswana a window to diversify its narrow export base – 75% of its export earnings coming from diamonds – as the country...


A dozen in the dock

Thirteen years to the day after the Conakry stadium massacre that left 157 people dead, the trial officially opened against those held responsible. Three men the United Nations...


Settlement hits another bump

Swiss-based commodity trading giant Glencore is struggling to finalise its US$1.5 billion settlement with the US authorities. Now, a new player has entered into the drama. Glencore had...