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Published 2nd April 2020

Vol 61 No 7


Third wave threatens the continent

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

Lack of international consensus on the response to the virus multiplies risks to Africa's economies and healthcare

Top African and UN officials are desperately lobbying a divided international system for a US$100 billion emergency fund to combat what they fear will be a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic ripping through Africa in mid-April, as it ravages Europe and North America.


Into uncharted waters

Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020
Copyright © Africa Confidential 2020

Shutdowns, border closures and crashing commodity prices may cause an unprecedented financial breakdown

As cases of Covid-19 grow exponentially across the world, so do the public health and economic threats to African states as governments take action. With over 20 countries...

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Cyril's double crisis

Cyril Ramaphosa addresses quarantined citizens. Pic: GCIS
Cyril Ramaphosa addresses quarantined citizens. Pic: GCIS

Drastic measures to contain the pandemic, coupled with the Moody’s downgrade, have strengthened the President’s hand – for now

The South African government has vowed to respond to the double shock of the coronavirus pandemic and a credit ratings downgrade by making overdue structural reforms to prevent...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

In Europe, the coronavirus has brought the command economy back into fashion. Without similar financial resources, African governments will struggle to follow suit in subsidising businesses and wages and converting factories to make ventilators and protective equipment. But they have been quick to impose curfews and lockdowns – the other side of the response.

That means closing down political rallies and campaigning, which suits authoritarians. Some governments, like Ethiopia, h...

In Europe, the coronavirus has brought the command economy back into fashion. Without similar financial resources, African governments will struggle to follow suit in subsidising businesses and wages and converting factories to make ventilators and protective equipment. But they have been quick to impose curfews and lockdowns – the other side of the response.

That means closing down political rallies and campaigning, which suits authoritarians. Some governments, like Ethiopia, have cited the pandemic as reason to postpone elections. Others, such as Guinea and Mali, have gone ahead with elections because low turnouts suit their political ends.

The economic damage and accompanying stimulus measures will drag on, as may measures to enforce social distancing. That could pose a new threat to political freedoms and the media.

At this stage, decisive action and transparency are being rewarded. South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa and Ghana's Nana Addo Akufo-Addo have strengthened their positions. Meanwhile, Egypt's autocratic Abdel Fattah el Sisi, whose government has been widely accused of concealing the number of coronavirus cases, could become still more unpopular, as could Zambia's Edgar Lungu. He was derided for waiting until this week to give a national address on the pandemic. For some weeks, Tanzania's John Magufuli played down the crisis, suggesting that religious observance rather than medical science would be able to defeat the virus.

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Condé goes it alone

The President gets the constitutional change he wants to enable a third and fourth term, and the crackdown on the opposition continues

President Alpha Condé got what he wanted: a 92% 'yes' vote in the constitutional referendum, which was held on 22 March alongside a long overdue legislative election which...


Poll in a plague year

The re-run of the presidential election looked certain to see Mutharika fall, but all bets are off now that political rallies are banned

The new presidential election mandated by the Constitutional Court in February was always going to be bad news for President Peter Mutharika, especially with the new requirement that...


The Kabila Strain

The health damage is not yet clear, but the economic consequences of the virus are grave, as the previous and current presidents squabble

The Covid-19 pandemic took until the middle of March, when the first domestic cases were reported, to rouse the government. Then, on 18 March, President Félix Tshisekedi announced...



Pointers

Virus rattles SWAPO

Although the coronavirus pandemic has yet to affect Namibia seriously – as April began there were only 10 confirmed cases and no deaths – President Hage Geingob's government...


Army steps up role

Egypt has been one of countries most severely affected in Africa, with cases approaching 1,000 and deaths nearing 50 as March came to an end. The first cases...


Locking down politics

The coronavirus pandemic will not only leave Kenyans much poorer, but also change the political landscape profoundly, according to the latest thinking. One likely casualty will be the...

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Bye bye boom

At the end of March, the government restricted movement between Greater Abidjan and the rest of the country. The streets of the commercial capital are almost deserted. Borders...


Magufuli the outlier

Tanzania stands apart from its neighbours in its response to Covid-19. President John Magufuli has resisted imposing blanket restrictions on movement, curfews and other forms of lockdown, insisting...


The fourth horseman

Officially, South Sudan remained one of the few African countries at the beginning of April to be free of the coronavirus, although draconian measures are in place to...


Protests on pause

Algerians became accustomed to staying at home during the 1990s conflict between the state and radical Islam. The extent to which they are prepared to observe the lockdown...


The spring unsprung

The fifth most infected country in Africa, Tunisia is also the only relative success story of the 2011 Arab Spring, but there are fears that the coronavirus could...


IMF backs rapid funds

Baton blows to over-sociable Dakarois and raids on wedding parties were not the gentlest way for police to secure the public's cooperation with quarantine and social distancing rules...


Pre-self-isolated

Madagascar is on few international airline routes, so Covid-19 came late to the island. The authorities were able to impose quarantine on arriving travellers early, even before the...


Voters self-isolate

Malians voted with their feet, choosing to protect themselves from the Covid-19 virus rather than cast ballots in parliamentary elections on 29 March. The turnout fell to 5%...


Tunisia pushes for peace

A third attempt to get the UN Security Council to declare the coronavirus pandemic a 'threat to humanity and international peace and security' and coordinate the necessary emergency...


No coronavirus ceasefire

Unlike its neighbours, Libya reported no coronavirus cases before 24 March, a beneficial effect of the civil war restricting the movement of people and businesses in and out...