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Published 13th July 2018

Vol 59 No 14


Eritrea

From the edge of war to the bridge of love

Abiy Ahmed shares a joke with Issayas Afewerki. Asmara, 8 July 2018

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has topped off weeks of revolutionary change by triumphantly making peace with Eritrea

The Ethiopian leader's previously inconceivable trip to Asmara on a mission of reconciliation on 8 July has reshaped regional geopolitics and crowned Abiy Ahmed's premiership with a hugely popular prize – peace with Eritrea and normalisation of relations. Nearly two decades of tense stand-off melted away when Abiy flew in to Asmara to a tumultuous welcome and a warm embrace from Eritrea's gruff dictator, Issayas Afewerki. They signed a joint declaration of peace and promised to implement the Algiers peace agreement signed in 2000. That deal ended a blood-drenched border war but never lifted the spectre of another outbreak of fighting and failed to restore normal relations between the former allies.

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A split by any other name

A new grand opposition coalition and fresh splits in the President’s party are changing calculations about next year’s elections

The latest round of defections and manoeuvrings in Abuja give weight to the opposition People's Democratic Party announcement that it will lead a new Coalition of United Political...


Dead in the water

How long can an ailing Abdelaziz Bouteflika preside over an Algerian polity cankered by corruption?

Only in Algeria could a surge in calls for President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to stand for a fifth term in the 2019 presidential election trigger speculation that the 81-year-old...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's call on Nigeria to speed up consultations on joining the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) reminded officials of the complexity of economic integration, at a time when the United States has launched a trade war with China, the rest of Asia, Europe, and its North American neighbours.

Although South Africa was not among the first cohort of ACFTA signatories when it was launched in Kigali in May, it has now signed up following discussio...

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's call on Nigeria to speed up consultations on joining the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) reminded officials of the complexity of economic integration, at a time when the United States has launched a trade war with China, the rest of Asia, Europe, and its North American neighbours.

Although South Africa was not among the first cohort of ACFTA signatories when it was launched in Kigali in May, it has now signed up following discussions with local trade unions and corporations. Ramaphosa's officials argued that the treaty would open markets for South Africa's manufactured and processed goods, earning the country far more than it stood to lose from allowing in unprocessed farm exports from its neighbours.

Another set of interests was at play when Rampahosa, at the Afreximbank annual meeting in Abuja on 11 July, urged President Muhammadu Buhari to join the free trade area. Although Nigeria's economy is the biggest in Africa, and its 190 million people the continent's biggest market, economic cooperation with South Africa has been weak, hobbled by political and commercial disputes.

Many of Buhari's ministers agree, but Buhari is instinctively an economic nationalist, arguing that Nigeria's huge internal market makes possible a radical industrialisation policy including protection of local companies. He also fears the electoral consequences of an influx of cheap imports challenging local producers.

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In the mood for change

Big doubts remain about the credibility of the elections as economic discontent boosts the opposition’s standing

In spite of the huge power of incumbency across Zimbabwe, as well as the generals' refusal to countenance an opposition victory, President Emmerson Mnangagwa's campaign for the 30...


Another political fix

Increasingly anti-migrant European politicians and governments are exerting more pressure on the EU to come up with solutions

Germany's Finance Minister Olaf Scholz dismissed Europe's political crisis over migration policy as 'summer theatre'. That's what he called the manoeuvres of his conservative coalition partner and Interior...


Hanging on a handshake

The deal between Kenyatta and Odinga has re-aligned old rivalries. Nairobi insiders puzzle over who the winners and losers are

Every politician in Nairobi has a favourite theory about the causes and consequences of the rapprochement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga on 9 March...


Shaky start for Sahel force

An attack on the G5 Sahel’s HQ has further undermined confidence in an alliance of governments who lack trust in each other

A lack of confidence and cash is holding up deployment of the G5 Sahel joint military force, tasked with tackling jihadist groups and trafficking gangs in the fragile...


Corruption inquiry takes off

The new president is taking the advice of his transition team's explosive report by instituting a judicial inquiry into corruption

President Julius Maada Bio's cabinet on 6 July approved a wide-ranging probe focusing on 'unexplained wealth' allegedly accumulated by former President Ernest Bai Koroma and his officials. It...


Move over, grandad

A split between the country's two dominant political godfathers is widening, creating an opening for the former guerrilla leader Guillaume Soro

The stability of the Ivorian political system has depended on the famed rapport between President Alassane Dramane Ouattara and the long-time leader of the Parti démocratique de Côte...



Pointers

Rationing corruption

Critics are calling on President Peter Mutharika to resign after a leaked report by Malawi's Anti-Corruption Bureau (ACB) alleged that he benefited from millions of kwacha deposited in...


A seven-year hitch

June's surprise Khartoum Declaration of Agreement, which saw both government and rebels recommit to a cessation of hostilities and work towards power-sharing was just enough to postpone planned...


New Islamists on the block

A wave of savage attacks in the northern province of Cabo Delgado by self-styled Islamist gangs is posing another threat to Mozambique's embattled government. Last weekend, a raid...