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Published 20th November 2015

Vol 56 No 23


Nigeria

Buhari resets the clock

Nigeria charts © Africa Confidential 2015
Nigeria charts © Africa Confidential 2015

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After six months of deliberation, a new team of largely technocratic ministers faces daunting economic and security challenges

It is called 'Buhari Mean Time' in Abuja. It started as a jocular description and then became a warning: President Muhammadu Buhari will not be rushed into decisions, especially when it comes to appointments. The new cabinet has been six months in the making. Yet the naming of a potential 36 ministers, amid insistent demands for factional and regional balancing, was always going to be tortuous for a President and retired General who remains deeply sceptical about partisan politics. On military and civilian matters, Buhari values strategic thinking over tactical coups. Since June, he and his highly effective Vice-President, Yemi Osinbajo, have taken extensive soundings about how to make institutions and officials work better.

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Issayas looks north

The President is helping the Saudi and Emirates' military campaign in Yemen in return for desperately needed money for the flagging economy

Long isolated in the Horn of Africa, Eritrean President Issayas Afewerki is expanding his alliances and horizons. He has forged a new strategic military relationship with Saudi Arabia...


Curses and compliance

Mandatory disclosure is new to oil, gas and mining giants. They are still doing battle with NGOs to minimise regulation

Until very recently, the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI), launched in 2002 by then British Prime Minister Tony Blair, was widely seen as the gold standard for regulating...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

As the global media spotlight stayed on the Da'ish attacks on Paris and the aftermath, a suicide bomber killed more than 80 people in a vegetable market in Yola, Nigeria, attracting little attention. In fact, there was more fuss about the demand from Africans for Facebook to extend its safety service – which allows friends and families in areas hit by terrorist attacks to check up on each other – to Africa...

As the global media spotlight stayed on the Da'ish attacks on Paris and the aftermath, a suicide bomber killed more than 80 people in a vegetable market in Yola, Nigeria, attracting little attention. In fact, there was more fuss about the demand from Africans for Facebook to extend its safety service – which allows friends and families in areas hit by terrorist attacks to check up on each other – to Africa. Ever image-conscious, Facebook quickly made the service cover Kenya and Nigeria.

This points to a bigger truth: that Africa is disproportionately targeted by Islamist and other terrorist attacks. Researcher Olivier Roy of the European University in Florence makes the point that the attacks on Paris are a sign of Da'ish's strategic limits in the Middle East, bounded as it is by Kurdish forces in the north, Iraqi Shiites in the west, and President Bashar al Assad's forces in the east. Da'ish will step up its international recruitment and efforts on spectacular international terrorist attacks as it did on 13 November, Roy says.

What Roy omits to point out is that Da'ish has already opened a second front: in Libya, which has become an important base for it. Alarmingly, the military stalemate between Libya's secularist forces and an Islamist coalition, with which Da'ish cooperates, continues to rip apart the country and its people. More alarmingly still, Da'ish has started a push in southern Libya to corral the Islamist and jihadist factions there to reinforce their attacks on Mali, Mauritania and Niger.

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The figures don’t add up

The opposition makes political capital from the gap between foreign plaudits for the economy and daily realities of corruption and job losses

Not all Kenyans seem to know it but it has been a tremendous few years for the economy, at least according to the World Bank and International Monetary...


Grace plots for power

A cabal is backing President Mugabe's wife to replace Mnangagwa as Vice-President at the ruling party's congress next month

A dramatic bid, backed by President Robert Mugabe, to evict Emmerson Mnangagwa as one of the country's two vice-presidents, is set to dominate the national congress of the...


The who and the how of the presidency

Politicians gathered to agree how to choose the next president, while ISIS failed in a bid to take over Al Shabaab

Somalia's political elite has been trying to come up with a credible formula for choosing a new President next year. On 20 October, they gathered to thrash out...


Poor turnout in Dakar

It was supposed to be a showcase of West African determination to tackle jihadism but few governments bothered to show up

This was meant to be President Macky Sall's moment. The second Dakar International Forum on Peace and Security in Africa was held on 9 and 10 November at...


Koidu's future in the balance

The country's biggest diamond mine could close as its indebted owner struggles with the government to keep its licence

A ten-strong team led by Mines Minister Minkailu Mansaray is in London for crisis talks set for 16 November, on the future of the Koidu diamond mine, which...


PF scrambles for support

As the copper price goes into free fall, the crisis in the governing party grows ever more severe

The latest rupture in the front ranks of the Patriotic Front came when former presidential aspirant Miles Sampa resigned as Deputy Commerce Minister at the end of October....


Dlamini-Zuma bandwagon speeds up

The momentum behind the AU chief’s bid to lead the country is increasing as the powerful coalition behind her notches up a key win

The campaign within the African National Congress for Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to become the next leader of the party and the country has just received a major boost. Sihle...



Pointers

Big bad John

In the fortnight since his swearing in, President John Pombe Magufuli has made his presence widely felt, dropping in unexpectedly at the Ministry of Finance and asking pointed...


Unclear for take-off

President Ernest Bai Koroma's government informed the International Monetary Fund it had abandoned his flagship project, the Mamamah international airport, during its team visit in September, Africa Confidential...


Museveni's pipeline dream

Confusion still reigns over the route of Uganda's oil pipeline, which is essential to begin production and export. Having signed a deal in August with President Uhuru Kenyatta...


Fight, don't talk

The government has decided to 'disarm' Resistência Nacional Moçambicana, in what is being seen as a victory for hardliners over President Filipe Nyusi's previous, conciliatory approach. Renamo's demands...