confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
ZIMBABWE: Fresh row over voting rules as opinion polls point to tightening race
Patrick Smith
This week, Zimbabwe's elections due on 30
July top the political agenda, while business groups consider the
commercial implications of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's
reforms in Ethiopia. There was high drama in the Nigerian capital this morning (24 July) which began with police surrounding the
house of Senate President Bukola Saraki, quickly
followed by the defection of 15 Senators from the ruling party to the
main opposition. Despite warnings about the debt build-up, African
countries have welcomed China's Xi Jinping on his swing across the continent, ending with an international summit
in South Africa of the BRICS countries: Brazil,
Russia, India, China and South
Africa.
ZIMBABWE: Fresh row over voting rules as opinion polls
point to tightening race
As the latest independent opinion poll puts President Emmerson
Mnangagwa just 3% ahead of challenger Nelson Chamisa,
opposition parties are stepping up their demands for more
accountability in election management.
Chamisa's Movement for Democratic Change wants more amendments
and time to review the voters lists and more oversight of the
production and storage of the ballot papers. Without those reforms,
Chamisa insists the elections will not be credible.
Both sides are calculating carefully. Mnangagwa has to do a
basic minimum to ensure the elections are seen as legitimate by most
foreign governments and international institutions. Chamisa, having
taken maximum advantage on new freedoms to campaign, knows that a polls
boycott could prove counter-productive.
ETHIOPIA/ERITREA: Companies head to Addis in search of
commercial liberalisation after political reform pledges
After a month of political shocks – making peace with Eritrea,
releasing political prisoners and advocating for a robust multi-party
democracy – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has started to unpick state
monopolies in the economy.
Although Abiy had earlier promised to sell off state equity in
the biggest companies, leaving significant stakes in only the most
critical areas such as telecoms and aviation, business people were
sceptical about how fast he would move. Now, teams of corporate scouts
from Kenya's Safaricom and South Africa's MTN have
arrived in Addis Ababa to test the potential for new ventures in the
country, a market of 100 million people, the second biggest in Africa.
NIGERIA: Ruling party defections in the Senate
threaten President Buhari's election strategy
At least 15 senators, led by Rabiu Musa
Kwankwaso and Dino Melaye, crossed the floor
from the ruling All Progressives' Congress to the opposition People's
Democratic Party this morning (24 July). The immediate impact of the
move is to strip the APC of its majority in the Senate, rendering
President Muhammadu Buhari vulnerable to an
impeachment bid.
Hours earlier, police surrounded the house of Senate President
Bukola Saraki saying they wanted to interview him about several murders
in his home state of Kwara. Saraki, who avoided the police net,
attended the Senate hearing, and announced that those attempting to
keep the APC together by force would fail.
Saraki, who has presidential ambitions, looks likely to join
the defectors. Of those who have already left the APC, Kwankwaso is
also a contender in next year's elections.
CHINA/AFRICA: Xi Jingping strikes new economic bargain
across Africa and boosts Beijing's standing on latest tour
Beijing's trade and finance strategy in Africa has made
further progress over the past week after President Xi Jinping's stops
in Senegal, Rwanda and South
Africa. The trip, in terms of Beijing's new commitments and
growing market share, has been a success, although the United
States and others warn African governments about the risks of
piling up too much Chinese debt.
With South Africa due to host the BRICS summit this week, the
group's New Development Bank announced on 24 July $300 million of
energy projects in South Africa.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN BRIEF
GHANA: Appointment of Jean Mensa as new election commission chief prompts opposition anger
SOUTH AFRICA: President Ramaphosa cautiously consolidates power with new ANC team in the provinces
CONGO-KINSHASA: Candidates for
presidential election start to register as Jean-Pierre Bemba plans return but Kabila stays quiet