confidentially speaking
The Africa Confidential Blog
NIGERIA: After a mini-national tour and exhortations from his loyalists, President Buhari seeks second term
Patrick Smith
The news agenda this week starts with President Muhammadu
Buhari's announcement that he will seek a second term in Nigeria's
elections next year but the outlook remains extremely uncertain. Ethiopia's
feted new Prime Minister is on the road in the Ogaden and Oromia. An
accident in a Ghana gold mine intensifies public
criticism of the sector. Julius Maada Bio, the winner
of Sierra Leone's presidential elections, and his
rival Samura Kamara have agreed to work together.
NIGERIA: After a mini-national tour and exhortations
from his loyalists, President Buhari seeks second term
Of all the political manoeuvres ahead of next year's
national elections, President Muhammadu Buhari's plan to seek a second
term ranks as one of the least surprising, despite a well-coordinated
attempt by his fellow former generals to stop him.
Buhari's announcement at the national executive meeting of the
governing All Progressives' Congress yesterday (9 April) doesn't mean
that he's guaranteed to win the nomination. But so far, no substantial
party figure has emerged to take him on.
Instead, some of the party's heavyweights from the north –
such as former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso or the
popular Sokoto governor Aminu Tambuwal – may
choose to cross the floor and contest the presidential nomination in
the opposition People's Democratic Party, where former Vice-President Atiku
Abubakar is making all the running after announcing his
intentions on 27 March.
Both Buhari and Atiku will be in London this month. Buhari
will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, which is
hosted by the Queen, and his office says he will also hold talks with
Prime Minister Theresa May about expanding trade and
security cooperation. Buhari, who made a dramatic recovery last year
after protracted medical leave in London, may also fit in time for a
check-up with his doctor.
Veteran businessman Atiku is giving a lecture about economic
modernisation and development strategy to the Chatham House think tank
on 27 April and attempting to burnish his technocratic credentials.
ETHIOPIA: Hopes for reform rise as new premier Abiy
Ahmed shuts down torture centre, promising a political settlement
It took just five days after his appointment as prime
minister for Abiy to get on the road, calling first on Jijiga, the
capital of the Ogaden (officially, the Somali Region). He has a plan
for political reconciliation in Oromia and the Ogaden after two years
of violence.
A quick win was his announcement that the notorious Maekelawi
detention centre, where dissidents were reportedly tortured, would be
closed down and turned into a museum. Political insiders say that Abiy
has a short time to prove he can get political results and keep the
hawks in the security system, many of whom opposed his appointment, at
bay. Those who draw parallels between Abiy's reform pledges and the
early months of Hailemariam Desalegn's premiership
could be mistaken.
Hailemariam was a consummate technocrat, lacking both a
substantial military record or strong security ties, while Abiy was a
lieutenant-colonel in the military and director of the country's
aggressive cyber-security programme. That means the sceptics in the
security system will take Abiy seriously, this year at least. The
stakes could hardly be higher for Ethiopia, which has strong economic
growth, an ambitious modernisation strategy and a population of 110
million.
GHANA: Tax write-offs, accidents and environmental
damage could trigger a pushback against gold-mining companies
An accident killing six workers and badly injuring four
others at Newmont's gold mine at Ahafo last Saturday (7 April) is
likely to boost public demands for tougher state regulation. The
victims were drowned in liquid concrete when the roof of a tunnel caved
in.
Complaints are growing about working conditions both in the
international companies and the artisanal sector, as well as the level
of tax they pay. In the wake of the tragedy, Newmont has shut down its
mines at Ahafo and Akyem, the home base of many senior figures in the
New Patriotic Party.
Angry youths reeled off a list of complaints about Newmont
when John Peter Amewu, Minister for Lands and Natural
Resources, visited the Ahafo mine after the accident and announced an
investigation.
Meanwhile, the NPP government has reached an agreement with
Anglogold Ashanti to restart production at its Obuasi mine, which had
been forced to close after the previous government failed to crack down
on informal or 'galamsey' mining ventures in the area.
For over five years, the 'galamsey' operators,
usually joint-ventures between local groups and Asian companies and
backed by some local politicians, ignored worker safety regulations and
environmental laws. Hundreds of miners were killed and maimed in these
operations and the water table across swathes of the Obuasi region was
irreparably damaged.
But the latest political fuss centres on reports that
Anglogold Ashanti has secured a cut in its tax and royalty obligations
of $275 million in exchange for resuming production. The furore around
the deal could embarrass the government as it tries to persuade
Ghanaians to pay more tax.
As part of its 'Beyond Aid' strategy the government is trying
to boost its domestic revenue, but it's saying less about the big
companies' tax records and is focusing on the over six million
Ghanaians in full time formal employment. Last week, officials in the
ministry of finance said that less than a quarter of those workers were
paying income tax.
SIERRA LEONE: Lack of parliamentary support forces new
President Maada Bio cut deal with rival Kamara after tight election
It was an arrangement drawn up after the country's two
top politicians – presidential election winner Julius Maada Bio and
opponent Samura Kamara – both devout Catholics, attended mass in the
same church in Freetown on Sunday (8 April). That day, Kamara, who
stood for the All People's Congress, agreed to recognise Maada Bio's
victory.
Until then, Kamara and his allies had been threatening to
withhold recognition of the official result, launching a legal
challenge as its supporters started organising protests. However, it
was the narrowness of Maada Bio's winning margin – 51.18% of the vote
against 48.19% for Kamara – that prompted the agreement.
That's because Kamara's APC won 67 of the 132 seats in
parliament against Maada Bio's Sierra Leone People's Party's 47. The
terms of the deal, and whether Kamara will have a formal role in Maada
Bio's government, remain hazy. The two men have worked together before,
when Maada Bio headed a military junta in the 1990s.
THE WEEK AHEAD IN VERY BRIEF
ZIMBABWE: Police probe of ivory smuggling
claims against ex-President Mugabe's family could
scupper his ambitions for a political comeback
SOUTH AFRICA: After a cameo court appearance,
Zuma ponders a political campaign against his
corruption charges
AFRICA/UNITED STATES: Africo Resources claims
$600 million against Och Ziff, two years after it admits corruption and
cuts a $400 million plea bargain deal
RWANDA: With GDP growth forecast at 7.3% this
year, President Kagame reshuffles his cabinet and
names new finance minister