Kenya’s military incursion into Somalia is less than a month old but is already the subject of contradictory statements by the government and its Western allies. Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen is under threat from the Kenya Armed Forces and their allies’ Special Forces and air power but the invasion also offers opportunities. Al Shabaab may be able to recoup some recent losses if Lower and Middle Juba end up controlled by Kenyan surrogate forces that alienate local people. The offensive shows, however, that the United States and its allies have faith in a military solution to the Somali problem. Kenyan forces are pushing towards Kismayo in a land assault that will combine with attacks by French and US forces from the sea to spell possible defeat for Al Shabaab in the key port. Yet with no political solution on offer, Al Shabaab could revive.
Kenya’s intervention in Somalia was first announced on 15 October by Minister of Internal Security George Kinuthia Saitoti and Minister of Defence Mohamed Yusuf Haji, and it...
Vol 52 No 22 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
Kenya’s confusion over its war aims proceeds in part from deep divisions within the elites and the fact that key actors support different Somali forces who have nothing...
Vol 52 No 21 |
- KENYA
- SOMALIA
After chasing kidnappers across the border, the Kenyan army is digging in for the longer term in Somalia
As the Kenyan army ventured deeper into Somalia, in its first cross-border campaign in 44 years, a regional grand strategy to deal with Al Haraka al Shabaab al...
Little appears to connect the UN-brokered road map for political reconciliation with the ambitions of Al Shabaab or Western strategists
The suicide bombing by Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen on 4 October killed over 70 people and injured hundreds more. This was the jihadists’ response to increasing...
The drought has weakened the Islamist militia only temporarily and the political threat to the region is as serious as ever
When Al Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen retreated from Mogadishu on 6 August, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was quick to claim victory. The United Nations claimed it...
Officers of the Haraka al Shabaab al Mujahideen killed January-July 2011. A tentative list; the full number may reach 50.
Vol 52 No 16 |
- ERITREA
- SOMALIA
People starve, aid is inadequate, relief agencies are spurned and the region’s insecurities fester
The Horn of Africa’s worst drought in six decades has prompted the United Nations to take the rare step of declaring a famine in two regions of Somalia...
The cash that Arab states are offering Somali politicians is doing little for regional stability
Mogadishu's troubled Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has taken another knock with a report by the head of the Public Finance Management Unit, Abdirazak Fartaag, revealing that at least...
Vol 52 No 9 |
- SOMALIA
- PIRACY
Pirates in the Horn are stepping up operations and threatening more ships but the international response looks weak and divided
At huge expense, the United Arab Emirates brought scores of
countries to Dubai on 18-19 April to craft new policies and raise
finance to fight the growing threat from pirates...
Signs that piracy is getting worse are numerous and stark. They include
higher ransoms, longer detentions of vessels and crews, and the use of
more and often larger mother ships,...