PREVIEW
Moscow is preparing to send more forces into Africa if its war with Ukraine starts to subside
Organising a summit in Moscow on 3-4 April for the foreign ministers from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – respectively Abdoulaye Diop, Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré and Bakare Yaou Sangare – Russia’s veteran chief diplomat Sergei Lavrov promised a surge of support for their battles with jihadi fighters and nationalist insurgents.
Security analysts say that should the United States mediation produce some kind of ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, then Moscow will transfer some of its trained forces and materiel to Africa’s conflict zones.
Lavrov said Russia was ready to help ‘strengthen the three countries' combat capability’. The Kremlin could help the countries form a joint armed force ‘by organising special courses, by using instructors who are already working in large numbers in the countries’ and by ‘supplying military production.’
That would help make the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) set up by the three juntas in July 2024 an effective mutual security pact. Under it, the three states are to form a unified 5,000 military force ‘to fight terrorism’ which they loosely define as any forces outside state militaries and their approved local vigilante allies. At Lavrov’s summit, the message was that Moscow would expand its military presence in the Sahel despite the more parlous security and jihadi forces attacking across the region (AC Vol 66 No 3, Sahel-exit tests western miners and Russia’s military muscle).
The three juntas admire Russia and have strongly supported its war against Ukraine (AC Vol 66 No 6, Captain Traoré digs in for a long stay). Mali's Abdoulaye Diop said that Mali and Russia shared views on ‘fighting against terrorism’ and described Ukraine as ‘simply a terrorist state,’ during a press conference.
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