PREVIEW
The regional dispute is escalating as Mogadishu says Ethiopian troops are not welcome and have been excluded from the peacekeeping operation
Somalia’s Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur has insisted that Ethiopia will not participate in a new African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission which is set to begin in January as the row on the Horn of Africa continues to simmer.
The new African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) will take over responsibilities from the African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) which was designed to combat the Al Shabaab Islamic terrorist group, with a view to the Somalian military gradually assuming security responsibilities.
Somalia’s stance is the product of the dispute with Ethiopia over its Memorandum of Understanding with the breakaway state of Somaliland giving Addis Ababa access to a naval base and port at Berbera in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s statehood (AC Vol 65 No 2, Why Abiy and Muse signed a 'memorandum of misunderstanding').
Mogadishu has responded by cutting an agreement with neighbouring Egypt and Eritrea. Meanwhile, weapons and other military hardware continue to arrive in Somalia courtesy of Egypt.
Ethiopia ‘has violated our sovereignty and national unity’, Mohamed Nur said on state television in an interview on 9 November.
Officials from Somaliland have played down Mogadishu’s threat, telling Africa Confidential that the Ethiopian deployment is too important to the success of the mission.
Delayed presidential elections in Somaliland are set to be held on 13 November, with both main parties united in support of the MoU with Ethiopia (AC Vol 64 No 19, Muse Bihi's political headaches worsen).
There are currently around 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers in Somalia as part of the AU mission, while a further 5,000 are in the country as part of a bilateral agreement. The new AUSSOM deployment is expected to total around 12,000 troops, down from 20,000 under ATMIS.They are also hopeful that the new Donald Trump administration in the United States will be much more sympathetic to their cause.
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