Jump to navigation

Sudan

Political movement warns of civil war

The opposition FFC urges regional leaders to step up efforts to broker a ceasefire as the battle of attrition increases the prospect of the country's partition

The warning by the civilian political movement, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), that the formation of rival governments by warring militia groups could lead to Sudan's partition, should push regional leaders and the wider international community to redouble efforts to broker a ceasefire.

Last week, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), threatened to set up a governing authority in areas under the control of his forces.

In response, the FFC – which was at the heart of the transitional government formed after the ousting of President Omer el Beshir in 2019 following a wave of public protest – said in a statement that threats by both sides to form a government were 'an extremely dangerous issue that will result in the partition and division of the country' and could lead to a 'comprehensive civil war'.

In April, the FFC warned presciently that Sudan risked being plunged into a full-scale civil war and the conflict quickly turned into a war of attrition that has already displaced more than four million people (AC Vol 64 No 9, How the generals blew up the transition). Both sides are focused on cutting each other's supply lines by heavy bombardment (AC Vol 64 No 15, Hemeti's grand plan is stalemated). The conflict has also become increasingly ethnically focused.

Hemeti's RSF retains control of most of the capital Khartoum, as well as areas of south-west and central Sudan. The army, led by Sudan's Sovereign Council, headed by army chief General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, control much of the rest of the country including the Red Sea city of Port Sudan. Members of the Sovereign Council have hinted at a caretaker government based in Port Sudan.

In the absence of a ceasefire, the continuation of the battle of attrition increases the prospect of the two sides proclaiming rival administrations.

The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) would need to force Hemeti's forces out of Khartoum in order to present itself as the legitimate authority fighting a rebel force. However, there is little prospect of such a military breakthrough, and both sides have strong diplomatic support bases.



Related Articles

How the generals blew up the transition

The outbreak of all-out war in Khartoum has produced an indelible conclusion – that the armed forces are incapable of governing the country

In full view of diplomats and international organisations in Khartoum, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) had been preparing for battle for several...

READ FOR FREE

Hemeti's grand plan is stalemated

After his putsch failed, the paramilitary leader has relaunched an ethnic war in Darfur as supply lines tighten

When the war of the generals broke out on 15 April, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo 'Hemeti', the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), had clear objectives: to...


How El Sisi lost the cold war over water

Closer ties between Addis Ababa and Khartoum sideline Cairo's position on the Nile dam

Egypt, a key player in the Nile Basin, is watching with alarm as the recent rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia undercuts its leverage over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance...


Beijing’s balancing act

Usually a supporter of territorial integrity, Beijing is making plans to adapt to the prospect of an oil-rich and independent Southern Sudan

Sudan is set to split into two next year, and China – the Khartoum regime’s most important international backer – is stuck in the middle. Under the 2005...


Mahamat Kaka’s Darfur policy starts blowing back

The Zaghawa are turning against the President’s arms shipment deals with the UAE and backing for Hemeti’s RSF militia

Two raging urban battles – in Khartoum and El Fasher in North Darfur – could determine the next stage in Sudan’s devastating war: the de facto partition of...