Africa will watch the United States’ election on 6 November with a sense of history as its candidate Barack Obama vies for a second term, says a West African academic. However, Africa will watch China’s leadership transition, which begins that same week, with a sense of economic destiny. No question about that on the numbers. This year, China’s trade with Africa – forecast at US$220 billion – is set to overtake that of both the USA and the European Union.

The history factor could produce a sharp change in US-Africa strategy, should Obama win a second term. He is under fire for the lack of impact of his two new policies in Africa, the climate change initiative and Feed the Future agriculture programme. Washington insiders predict Obama will assemble a more coordinated, aggressive team to push these plans ahead. Policymakers are also working on a stronger version of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, offering African exporters greater access to the US market.

The stakes and the ideologies at play in China’s leadership change are far less clear. The new General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, has a reputation for being both pragmatic and enigmatic. However, there is a growing economic anxiety in China, caused by flaws in the state capitalist model, the slowdown in Western markets and increasing popular protests, all suggesting the need for sweeping economic reforms. These reforms – and their political side effects – will again change China’s relations with Africa.