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Published 17th February 2012

Vol 53 No 4

Somalia

No great expectations

Gaalkaayo, Puntland. An AK47 rifle with a strap embroidered with 'Somalia' leans against a wall. Sven Torfinn / Panos
Gaalkaayo, Puntland. An AK47 rifle with a strap embroidered with 'Somalia' leans against a wall. Sven Torfinn / Panos

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

British Prime Minister David Cameron’s grand conference will bring together many parties but no one is forecasting a breakthrough

After two decades of political mayhem, Somalis and more perspicacious foreign diplomats are intensely sceptical about high-level conferences. Many approach the London Conference on Somalia on 23 February with muted hopes of any political advance and say that its most important contribution will be to raise the profile of Somalia’s internal political and social crisis, plagued by intermittent conflict and chronic food shortage. British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Foreign Secretary William Hague have evidently succeeded on the promotion front. Thanks to the Foreign Office’s invitations to Arab countries, it is the first big Somalia meeting in which several Muslim states are seriously involved.

The state of Zuma’s nation

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

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The promises sound good but money may be short as the President stakes his claim to another term at the helm

President Jacob Zuma gave his third, and best, State of the Nation Address to a joint session of Parliament on 9 February. To show their growing power, the...

BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

An apparently revitalised President Robert Mugabe has been displaying some of his old, subtle political form in recent weeks, since returning from his annual Asian winter holiday and medical check-ups. When the First Draft of the Constitution appeared on 10 February, hardliners went into knee-jerk attack mode – but he reined them in. When Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai wrote him a letter, the hotheads lea...

An apparently revitalised President Robert Mugabe has been displaying some of his old, subtle political form in recent weeks, since returning from his annual Asian winter holiday and medical check-ups. When the First Draft of the Constitution appeared on 10 February, hardliners went into knee-jerk attack mode – but he reined them in. When Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai wrote him a letter, the hotheads leaked it to discredit the MDC leader and please their own leader. Mugabe was decidedly displeased and tore a strip off those responsible.

Unlike many ZANU-PF loyalists, Mugabe knows that blind commitment to destroying the enemy is not in the best interests of the party at this delicate stage in the constitutional negotiations. The Southern Africa Development Community and the constitution-drafters cannot be gaoled and only a fool would try to humiliate the SADC facilitator, President Jacob Zuma, ahead of his visit to Harare.

Mugabe’s longer game is to encircle the enemy rather than charge him. He hopes to persuade his MDC coalition allies of the futility of the irksome and tedious constitutional process, and that both parties have a future together in a two-party state, a marriage of convenience. The more desperate MDC activists may agree to junk the constitutional talks and slug it out in an early election under the old rules. SADC could walk away. The ZANU-PF hotheads would cool off, the mediators might back off, and Mugabe could celebrate his 88th birthday this month in style.

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Big projects, money pressures

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Libyan arms fuel Tuareg revolt

Mali has rapidly moved from peaceful political campaigning to bloody military confrontation and inter-communal strife

Battle-hardened fighters of the Mouvement national pour la libération de l’Azawad – equipped with heavy weapons they brought back from Libya – are confronting the Malian army in...

No freedom of the press

Although the President has consolidated his power, there is no let up in pressure on the media

The announcement by United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay on 9 February that Gambia’s putschist President Yahya Jammeh had requested UN assistance in the case of...

Early exit for UN envoy

President Koroma falls out with a top diplomat over allegations of political interference

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon closed the door on a bitter dispute with the government of President Ernest Bai Koroma by recalling his Executive Representative for the...

Who paid whom for what?

Ministers have lost their jobs, the President’s anti-corruption halo is tarnished and the scandals are running out of control

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MNLA’s deadly mobility

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The gamble for Simandou

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The financial firm JP Morgan estimates that Simandou’s Vale-controlled blocks can produce 50 mn. tonnes of ore annually by 2020. That compares favourably with the output of...

Gadaffi’s bequest to region

A UN mission to Libya’s neighbours warns that the wave of returnees is increasing social tension and the risk of more terrorism

A report to the United Nations Security Council paints an alarming picture of Sahelian countries being severely stressed by the 420,000 returnees who have fled Libya since the...

Pointers

Wade rallies

After looking distinctly lacklustre in recent weeks, President Abdoulaye Wade’s prospects for re-election have brightened considerably while the opposition looks divided and riot police keep the streets on...

Inquest blue

The inquest into the death of General Solomon Mujuru has closed on 6 February after hearing 39 witnesses. The evidence left after the raging inferno that killed him...

Ellen's green cred

President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf is taking action on her green credentials after featuring in a New York Times piece headlined ‘A Nobel Laureate’s Problem at Home’. The op-ed accused...

Blow to Geingob

The presidential ambitions of Hage Geingob appear holed beneath the waterline after he admitted taking a US$300,000 consultancy fee from French nuclear power company Areva in 2008 (AC...

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