Revolutionaries, like soldiers, march on their stomachs. And economics is now at the centre of the turbulence in North Africa. In Egypt and Tunisia, the ability of the post-revolutionary regimes to meet demands for jobs and subsidise food and fuel will shape political developments. More economic discontent and street protests could prompt a new security crackdown that would benefit the former regimes’ allies.

Although the World Bank and African Development Bank are lending US$500 million each to Tunisia, the European Union response of 258 mn. euros over three years has underwhelmed. The AfDB’s latest Tunisia figures show graduate unemployment over 20% and over 40% for economics and law graduates. There are gross regional disparities: poverty rates in Tunis are about 7% but over 30% in the mid-west. The upheavals have cost Tunisia $5-8 billion in lost investment and tourist revenue. But AfDB researchers conclude the revolution should prove positive if the transitional regime consolidates accountable government and cuts corruption, which was costing Tunisia several billion dollars a year under Zine el Abidine Ben Ali.

In Libya, oppositionists believe fuel shortages in Moammar el Gadaffi’s western strongholds could prove as important as force in unseating the regime. Indeed, much of the coastal fighting has been over oil installations. But the opposition may underestimate the regime’s determination to keep lines open despite sanctions and pay premium prices for contraband supplies.