Jump to navigation

Published 1st February 2008

Vol 49 No 3


Kenya

The soldiers wait in the wings

After another spate of murderous attacks and high level political obstruction, many see military intervention as a desperate remedy

Amid the latest round of killing in the Rift Valley, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame suggested that intervention by Kenya’s military may be the only solution left: ‘I know it’s not fashionable or right for the armies to get involved in such a political situation,’ he told Reuters news agency, ‘but in a situation where institutions have lost control, I wouldn’t mind such a solution.’ That may not win General Kagame an invitation to tea with President Mwai Kibaki but it is a view echoed by many despairing Kenyans and foreign diplomats. Some authoritatively quote dates for the interventions, even the names and ranks of the officers involved. Looking at the options in Kenya, there are huge forebodings.


The spurned advisor at State House

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

View site

Confidence at State House was knocked by their party’s appalling parliamentary results in the 27 December elections and the furore over the disputed presidential vote. For several days,...


Military options

Image courtesy of Panos Pictures

View site

At the height of this week’s violence in the Rift Valley, senior Kenyan politicians on both sides of the divide began discussing the possibility of a military intervention....



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

The notoriously fickle international opinion barometer has moved back into Afro-pessimism after a lengthy stint last year in the Afro-optimism zone. In fact, the key economic indicators in most African states are little changed from a year ago, when heady talk about the African boom was at its height: the African oil and gas bonanza; manic growth in Asian trade and investment; African GDP growth 2-3% ahead of world averages. And the credit crunch is yet to work through into Africa. It is the ...
The notoriously fickle international opinion barometer has moved back into Afro-pessimism after a lengthy stint last year in the Afro-optimism zone. In fact, the key economic indicators in most African states are little changed from a year ago, when heady talk about the African boom was at its height: the African oil and gas bonanza; manic growth in Asian trade and investment; African GDP growth 2-3% ahead of world averages. And the credit crunch is yet to work through into Africa. It is the political perceptions that have changed. The basic elements of the current crises were all evident a year ago: Kenya was preparing for a nasty election with both parties exploiting ethnic sentiment; Nigeria was about to hold a deeply flawed election; momentum was building behind Jacob Zuma’s populist campaign for the Presidency in South Africa, as power experts warned the government of crippling electricity shortages; and the Sudanese regime continued ethnic cleansing in Darfur. But many of the business brains didn’t see it coming. They had convinced themselves that Kenyans were happy with their government’s economic management, that Nigerians felt pride in their country’s US$50 billion forex reserves and that South Africans shared Western admiration for Thabo Mbeki’s pro-market economic strategy. They were wrong and this may be the year when ignoring the politics gets too expensive – even for the sovereign wealth funds.
Read more

Judgment day is coming

The courts are taking the lead in resolving the election crisis in Abuja - even if that creates new political problems

The rival factions in the political drama in Abuja agree on one thing: the legal and political battles over the legitimacy of the 2007 elections will rumble on...


Economic crisis without borders

Kenya's post-election crisis has exploded several myths about the strength of its financial institutions, its economy and the force of political and economic integration under the revived East African Community.

Financial projections for East Africa have been turned on their head. Kenya's election crisis has damaged all the members of the East African Community and the contagion has...


One Conakry, two Lansanas

Rivalries between the President and his Prime Minister are exacerbating discontent within the trade unions and the military

The army stands in the wings, looking suspiciously at the government of the ailing President Lansana Conté, while Conté looks suspiciously at his 'consensus' Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté,...


Déjà Kivu

The latest peace deal for eastern Congo may end up like its predecessors, in renewed regional wars

A ceasefire in Congo's eastern war was agreed on 23 January by the Kinshasa government and armed factions from North and South Kivu after a three-week conference in...


Presidents, gems and trade

Leaders bearing gifts, a bad start to the year for diamond giant De Beers and those Economic Partnership Agreements

World Bank President Robert Zoellick, followed closely by United States President George Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, led the procession of Western leaders on their pilgrimages to...


Bring in the money

The President's trip to London produced some useful aid and gave him a chance to encourage investors

Links to the former colonial power serve Sierra Leone well. On a trip this week to meet British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the Prince of Wales, the...



Pointers

Cocaine cops

An hysterical attack by the Inspector General of Police, Patrick Kwarteng Acheampong, on the sacked National Security Minister, Francis Poku, has backfired, prompting a new round of public...


Ordinary rendition

A diplomatic storm is brewing as Mozambican police crack down on West Africans they accuse of being illegal miners. The formal tone of a letter from the Mozambican...


Wealthy sovereigns

The establishment of an Angolan sovereign wealth fund is generating huge interest, not least because its operations and objectives have so far been shrouded in secrecy. We...