Dealing with the conflicts from the Atlantic to the Red Sea
will dominate this year's policy agenda
The tempo of political and economic change in Africa will speed up in 2000. In six elections, credible opposition parties will vie for power. Heavy pressure is building up on the continent's gerontocracies, especially in Kenya and Zimbabwe. Africa has the world's youngest voters but its rulers are still among the oldest and demands for a generational shift are growing. Few people harbour illusions about the merits of what Malawian political scientist
Thandika Mkandawire calls 'choiceless democracies'. Like Mkandawire, many Africans lament the lack of real policy choices between ruling parties and their opponents but fully support the democratisation impetus and its halting progress of the last decade. However much they wriggle, governments are becoming more accountable and the kleptocrats' room for manoeuvre is diminishing. Foreign aid is falling rapidly and mainstream private capital is increasingly reluctant to deal with grossly corrupt regimes.
World Bank President Jim Wolfensohn, together with internationalist anti-debt campaigners, will get joint credit if the Bank and the international Monetary Fund's Heavily Indebted Poor Country initiative makes...
In Algeria, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's honeymoon period won't survive the end of Ramadan this weekend. Expect a tough military-led Islamist campaign early in the year, then subsequent reprisals...