Facing the prospect of United States's tariffs that will hurt their exports, the European Union and African Union are under pressure to deepen and widen their trade relations. The European Commission wants to diversify its trade partnerships, setting a December deadline for a trade deal with India and opening negotiations with the United Arab Emirates. In practice, the EU moves as fast as its slowest member on trade, whether it is the French farm lobby or German car makers. Africa’s capacity is also problematic. With 54 states, many of them small and poor, Africa will be near the back of the queue when dealing with Washington.

Trade relations between the EU and Africa have been in stasis for 20 years ever since Lord Peter Mandelson, then the EU’s Trade Commissioner, pushed unpopular Economic Partnership Agreements on African regional blocs. Only a couple of them have ever been fully implemented.

In 2018, Carlos Lopes, then the AU’s advisor, tried to solve the leverage question by seeking a mandate for the AU to negotiate a continent-to-continent trade deal with Brussels. It made a lot of sense then and makes even more now. But Lopes was blocked by both the EU Commission, who preferred the status quo, and several African governments, including South Africa and Kenya, who feared that the AU could acquire too much power. The question now is whether Africa or the EU can afford to be so short-sighted.