The unilateral ceasefire by the M23 announced days after laying siege to Goma in eastern Congo-Kinshasa did not mean an end to fighting in the Kivus. M23 and the Rwandan army are continuing to push towards Bukavu in Kivu-Sud. Shortly before Africa Confidential went to press, Congo-K’s Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner urged the European Parliament to ensure that the EU immediately suspend all economic support for Rwanda.

She also dismissed the M23 ceasefire as ‘a farce’. Her speech was met with applause by MEPs. Few questioned her insistence that the Rwandan army and M23 are operating in lockstep. The question is, what, if anything, will the EU will do about it?

While Germany has suspended aid, and Belgium demanded the suspension of Europe’s minerals-access deal with Kigali, other western governments have been reluctant to pressure President Paul Kagame. That lack of response by western governments, on whose behalf Rwanda’s military operates as a security contractor in Mozambique and CAR, appears to be part of Kagame’s strategy.

Many anticipate that Rwanda and M23 will consolidate their grip on Goma and across the Kivus. Only a coordinated regional response is likely to restrain them. On 7 February, leaders from SADC and the EAC will meet in Tanzania to attempt to restart negotiations between Kigali and Kinshasa, which broke off in December.