‘Our partners want more from Europe,’ the European Union’s new International Partnerships Commissioner Jozef Síkela told MEPs in the European Parliament at hearings last year.

In the case of Africa, they are unlikely to get it. Facing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Africa is not high on the agenda for Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission.

The EU’s diplomatic service, the European External Action Service, faces budget cuts and some African embassies will cut staff numbers over the next 12 months. That is not a promising start, though countries where the EU is already diplomatically weak, such as in the Sahel region, are likely to be prioritised for cuts. An EU/African Union summit will be held in early 2025, but expectations are low.

There will be no new trade offer to Africa as the EU concentrates on the South American Mercosur bloc agreement concluded after two decades of talks. France opposes this deal, claiming it will harm its farmers, leaving the Commission’s trade department preoccupied with ratifying it.

The EU remains focused on migration control. The Commission says that its ‘cash for migration control’ deals with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt have cut irregular migration via the Central Mediterranean route. More positively, Von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron say they will promote an ambitious debt relief initiative – but only if China and the rest of the G7 are on board.