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Published 15th November 2024

Vol 65 No 23


Leaders look for deals in the Trump marketplace

The White House. Pic: Public Domain
The White House. Pic: Public Domain

States rich in critical minerals could win big investments as Washington jostles for access with Beijing

Countries sitting on the minerals to power the energy transition – such as copper, cobalt and lithium – expect a more determined push for access from US mining companies under a second Donald Trump administration, following his victory in the 5 November election. The obvious candidates – Angola, Congo-Kinshasa, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe – are preparing overtures to the new order in Washington.


Boko wins big

Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko
Duma Boko. Pic: @duma_boko

Rebooting economic growth and and cutting unemployment are the new President’s priorities

The pace of the political transition in Botswana matches the urgency of the new government’s agenda: to stabilise an economy in free fall with youth unemployment hitting 38%....


Mnanagagwa takes on the army

Heroes Day, August 2024. Pic: @edmnangagwa
Heroes Day, August 2024. Pic: @edmnangagwa

Seven years after the coup, Mnangagwa’s manoeuverings to stay in power are angering Chiwenga and other generals

The most significant constraint on President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa’s plan to extend his rule is the military. Senior officers know that just as they launched him into power...



BLUE LINES
THE INSIDE VIEW

Attendance may be sharply down at the COP29 climate summit which started in Azerbaijan this week, but the politicking in Baku still reflects the geopolitical faultlines between east and west and wealthy and developing countries.

One of the priorities facing delegates is to replace the US$100-billion-a-year climate finance pledge seen by developing states as inadequate even if donor states consistently failed to meet it, with a New Collective Quantified Goal worth over $1 trillion a ye...

Attendance may be sharply down at the COP29 climate summit which started in Azerbaijan this week, but the politicking in Baku still reflects the geopolitical faultlines between east and west and wealthy and developing countries.

One of the priorities facing delegates is to replace the US$100-billion-a-year climate finance pledge seen by developing states as inadequate even if donor states consistently failed to meet it, with a New Collective Quantified Goal worth over $1 trillion a year for five years, starting from 2025.

Wealthy nations want to widen the contributor base for international climate assistance, including the loss and damage fund agreed at last year’s COP summit. That would mean getting the likes of China and Saudi Arabia to contribute.

They also want commitments to phase out fossil fuels and move towards global carbon pricing as part of a broader agreement.

However, despite being the world’s second largest economy, China claims that it is still a developing economy and has combined forces with the G77 group of developing countries to resist this proposal. Instead, the G77 wants wealthy states to agree to an annual climate finance target of $1.3trn.

With a lame-duck Biden administration now lukewarm on more ambitious climate finance commitments, which would anyway be unpicked by a Trump presidency, stalemate is the most likely outcome.

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Facing calls for reform, the state hits back

A wave of murders and abductions at the hands of the police has prompted condemnation from civic activists and diplomats

Initial hopes that the mass protests in June against state corruption and police brutality would persuade President William Samoei Ruto to make the government more accountable were overblown....


It’s the economy, Macron!

Paris has lost power in its old chasse gardée but French companies are spreading their wings across the continent

President Emmanuel Macron’s government is wheeling out the ministers of finance, trade and foreign affairs on 19-20 November to meet African businesses and official delegates to cut deals...

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Cultural and political battles break out as the stolen bronzes come home

A $100 million museum to exhibit Benin bronzes looted by British soldiers is opening but few of the artefacts will be on display

A trial of strength between powerful figures in Edo State and the Federal Government highlights the complexities around demands for reparations and restitution to Africa. The bold vision...


Debt and inflation drag Bawumia down

The green shoots of economic recovery may be coming too late for the ruling party’s electoral chances

As two credible opinion polls show the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and its presidential candidate Mahamudu Bawumia heading for defeat three weeks ahead of the national elections...


All roads lead to Maputo

Opposition firebrand Mondlane is staking everything on his calls for mass protests in the capital on 7 November

Mozambique’s economy is grinding to a halt amid nationwide protests, following its disputed election on 9 October. Many in the ruling Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) party...



Pointers

Yellowcake shutdown

Uranium production will effectively cease with the decision by France’s Orano to suspend activities at the Arlit mine operated by Société des mines de l’Aïr (Somaïr), due to...


The price of minerals

The EU’s difficult relations with Rwanda were exposed last week when a series of MEPs demanded that Brussels’s minerals deal with Kigali be re-opened or scrapped because of...